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| Line 1: |
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| == Upcoming CPI expectations == | | == Upcoming CPI expectations == |
| January 12h 2023 inflation forecast is expecting a significant decline in inflation compared to last month, continuing with the trend we have seen in recent months and in line with short term inflation drivers pointing to an inflation rate moderating. However the level will remain high enough to not allow the FED to change its narrative of more rate hikes needed.
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| At the moment, 78% of the market is pricing 0.25 bps rate hike in February meeting. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html</ref>
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| ''Range:''
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| * CPI: 6.4% - 6.7%
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| * Core CPI: 5.6% - 5.9%
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| If <6.4% could see a rally 4%
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| if >6.7% could see a drop 5%
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| === Consensus forecast <ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/</ref> ===
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| {| class="wikitable"
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| |Forecast
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| |Previous
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| |Actual
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| |Market Reaction
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| |-
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| |Core CPI (MoM) (Dec)
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| |0.30%
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| |0.20%
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| |-
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| |Core CPI (YoY) (Dec)
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| |5.70%
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| |6.00%
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| |5.70%
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| |Flat
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| |-
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| |CPI (YoY) (Dec)
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| |6.50%
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| |7.10%
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| |6.50%
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| |-
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| |CPI (MoM) (Dec)
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| |0.10%
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| |0.10%
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| |}
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|
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| === FED Cleveland Forecast<ref>https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting</ref> ===
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| {| class="wikitable"
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| | colspan="2" |'''YoY Change'''
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| | colspan="2" |'''MoM Change'''
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| |-
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| |'''Month'''
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| |'''CPI'''
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| |'''Core CPI'''
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| |'''CPI'''
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| |'''Core CPI'''
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| |-
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| |Jan-23
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| |6.51
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| |5.76
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| |0.5
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| |0.48
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| |-
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| |Dec-22
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| |6.64
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| |5.87
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| |0.12
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| |0.48
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| |}
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|
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| === JPM Forecast<ref>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-10/jpmorgan-s-trading-desk-sees-cpi-bolstering-bear-market-rally</ref> ===
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| {| class="wikitable"
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| |'''CPI Reading'''
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| |'''Probability'''
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| |'''S&P 500 reaction'''
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| |-
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| |> 6.6%
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| |15%
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| |Down 2.5% to 3%
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| |-
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| |6.4% - 6.6%
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| |65%
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| |Up 1.5% to 2%
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| |-
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| |< 6.4%
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| |20%
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| |Up 3% to 3.5%
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| |}
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|
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| === Specific institutions forecast <ref>https://twitter.com/gurgavin/status/1613197935327514625</ref> ===
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| {| class="wikitable"
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| |'''Institution'''
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| |'''CPI Forecast'''
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| |-
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| |CIBC
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| |6.3%
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| |-
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| |WELLS FARGO
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| |6.3%
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| |-
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| |NOMURA
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| |6.3%
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| |-
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| |BARCLAYS
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| |6.4%
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| |-
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| |BANK OF AMERICA
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| |6.4%
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| |-
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| |JP MORGAN
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| |6.4%
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| |-
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| |MORGAN STANLEY
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| |6.4%
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| |-
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| |UBS
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| |6.4%
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| |-
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| |GOLDMAN SACHS
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| |6.4%
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| |-
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| |GURGAVIN CAPITAL
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| |6.5%
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| |-
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| |TD SECURITIES
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| |6.5%
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| |-
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| |BMO
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| |6.5%
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| |-
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| |CITI
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| |6.5%
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| |-
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| |SCOTIABANK
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| |6.5%
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| |-
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| |CREDIT SUISSE
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| |6.5%
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| |-
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| |-
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| |MEDIAN
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| |6.5%
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| |}
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| ==Historical CPI Releases== | | ==Historical CPI Releases== |
|
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| Main Article: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases]]
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|
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| Event prediction in the past: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1S0Km-oygsRT46xAsHiIZWQ2oHKlwDBYsVaqdBn0uOgI/edit#gid=1876112938&range=A311:L377 | | Event prediction in the past: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1S0Km-oygsRT46xAsHiIZWQ2oHKlwDBYsVaqdBn0uOgI/edit#gid=1876112938&range=A311:L377 |
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| |'''Surprise''' | | |'''Surprise''' |
| |'''Market Reaction''' | | |'''Market Reaction''' |
| |'''Log''' | | |'''Details''' |
| |- | | |- |
| |Jan 12, 2023 (Dec) | | |Jan 12, 2023 (Dec) |
| Line 176: |
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| | | | | |
| |[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 January 12|Link]] | | |[[Consumer Price Index:2023 01 12|Link]] |
| |- | | |- |
| |Dec 13, 2022 (Nov) | | |Dec 13, 2022 (Nov) |
