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| == Prices == | | == Prices == |
| | Historical: [[US Auto Prices: 2023]] |
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| By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold. | | By applying statistical analysis to its database of more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually, Manheim has developed a measurement of used vehicle prices that is independent of underlying shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold. |
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| '''Used Car Index''' | | '''Used Car Index''' |
| [[File:Screenshot 2024-01-09 173856.png|alt=|center|thumb|835x835px|https://site.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html]] | | [[File:Screenshot 2024-02-12 105809.png|alt=|center|thumb|835x835px|https://site.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html]] |
| '''New Car Avg Prices''' | | '''New Car Avg Prices''' |
| [[File:Screenshot 2024-01-09 172602.png|alt=|center|thumb|845x845px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-november-2023/]] | | [[File:Screenshot 2024-01-09 172602.png|alt=|center|thumb|845x845px|https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-november-2023/]] |
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| !Index % MoM | | !Index % MoM |
| !Index % YoY | | !Index % YoY |
| | |- |
| | |Jan-24 |
| | |204.0 |
| | |18,664 |
| | |0.0% |
| | | -9.2% |
| |- | | |- |
| |Dec-23 | | |Dec-23 |
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| |} | | |} |
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| === December 2022 === | | === January 2024 === |
| * Used car prices were down 14.9% over the past year, the largest YoY decline on record. <ref>https://publish.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html</ref>
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| * Average transactions for new cars topped $49,500 in December. That’s up more than 5% from the same month a year earlier and more than 20% higher than in December 2020.<ref>https://www.kbb.com/car-advice/when-will-car-prices-drop/</ref>
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| === February 2023 ===
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| ==== Used ====
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| *Wholesale used-vehicle prices increased 4.3% in February from January. This was the largest increase for the full month of February since 2009’s 4.4% rise. <ref>https://publish.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html</ref> This recent increase could create upward pressure on inflation short term.
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| *The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 234.5, down 7.0% from a year ago.
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| ==== New ====
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| *The average new car in America sold for $48,763 in February – a decline of 1.4% from January’s figure. It’s still 5.3% higher than a year ago. But it’s the third straight month of decreases – a sustained price drop.<ref>https://www.kbb.com/car-news/average-new-car-price-falling-incentives-making-a-comeback/</ref>
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| === March 2023 ===
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| ==== Used ====
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| * Wholesale used-vehicle prices increased 1.5% in March from February. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 238.1, down 2.4% from a year ago.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/march-2023-muvvi/</ref>
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| * Compared to last March, midsize and compact cars lost less than the industry, at 1.4% and 2.2%, respectively, while luxury cars lost 8.0%, and the remaining three segments declined between 2.7% and 3.8%. Pickups showed a 0.6% increase
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| * The average used-vehicle listing price at the end of March was measured at $26,213, down from the revised $26,250 at the end of February, but was trending upward after falling further in the early part of March. Wholesale price increases at the beginning of the year are likely beginning to filter through to the retail level.<ref name=":3">https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-vehicle-inventory-march-2023/</ref>
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| ==== New ====
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| * The average transaction price (ATP) for a new vehicle fell to $48,008 in March and was below the manufacturer’s suggested retail price for the first time in 20 months. Decreased by 1.1% ($550) compared to February. These are still high prices, up 3.2% or nearly $1,784 from a year ago. <ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/march-2023-vai/</ref>
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| * The average new vehicle listing price – the asking price – fell weekly through March to below $47,000 for the first time since December. The average listing price at the close of March was $46,994, down from the revised $47,257 at the end of February. Still, the average price is up 6% from a year ago.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/new-vehicle-inventory-march-2023/</ref>
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| === April 2023 ===
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| ==== Used ====
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| Values in April also continue to be lower year over year. We’ve experienced eight straight months of year-over-year declines, averaging 8.3%, and it’s likely not over yet
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| * Wholesale used-vehicle prices decreased 3.0% in April from March<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/april-2023-muvvi/</ref>.
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| * The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index down '''4.4% from a year ago.'''
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| * Compared to last April, pickups, compacts, and midsize cars lost less than the industry, at 0.2%, 3.4%, and 3.9%, respectively.
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| * Luxury lost 9.0%, and the remaining three segments declined between 5.0% and 7.0%
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| ==== New ====
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| * The average transaction price (ATP) of a new vehicle in April was flat, with April at $48,275.
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| * The average price fell further below the average manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP). The average price was up 3.7% from a year ago, while the average MSRP increased 0.2% in April from March and was up 5.9% year over year.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/auto-market-weekly-summary-may-8/</ref>
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| === May 2023 ===
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| ==== Used ====
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| * Wholesale used-vehicle prices decreased 2.7% in May from April. <ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/may-2023-muvvi/</ref>
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| * The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 224.5, down 7.6% from a year ago.
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| * In May, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 98.7%, meaning market prices were below MMR values
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| * Compared to last month, vans actually increased by 0.2%, while compact and midsize cars declined by 2.4% each. SUVs were flat versus April, with luxury and pickups down 3.0% and 4.3%, respectively.
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| ==== New ====
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| * The average transaction price (ATP) of a new vehicle in the U.S. increased in May 2023 to $48,528, a '''month-over-month increase of 0.5%''' ($251) from an upwardly revised April reading of $48,277.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-may-2023/</ref>
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| * New-vehicle transaction prices in '''May were up 3% ($1,393) compared to year-ago levels.''' The year-over-year increase in May of 3% was the smallest in 2023
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| * Auto manufacturers’ '''incentive spend in May rose to the highest level in the past year at 3.9% of the ATP''', averaging $1,914. One year ago, average incentive spending was 2.5% of ATP.
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| * In May 2023, the average price consumers paid for a new vehicle fell to '''$410 below MSRP''', or sticker price. For comparison, a year ago, the average ATP was $637 above MSRP.
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| === June 2023 ===
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| ==== Used ====
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| The 4.2% drop is among the largest declines in MUVVI history and the largest decline since the start of the pandemic in April 2020 when the index plunged 11.4%<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/june-2023-muvvi/</ref>
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| * Wholesale used-vehicle prices decreased '''4.2% in June from May.'''
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| * The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 215.1, '''down 10.3% from a year ago.'''
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| * Over the month of June, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 98.4%, meaning market prices were below MMR values.
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| * Compared to June 2022, pickups and vans lost less than the industry, at 6.6% and 8.5%, respectively. While sports cars fared the worst at 14.8% year-over-year, compact cars lost 12.6%, and midsize cars were off by 12.2%.
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| ==== New ====
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| * The average transaction price (ATP) of a new vehicle in June was $48,808, a '''month-over-month increase of 0.3%''' ($150) from an upwardly revised May reading of $48,658.
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| * The average price Americans paid for a new vehicle in June 2023 was '''1.6% higher than one year ago''', the smallest year-over-year price increase since the start of the global pandemic.
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| * '''Compared to the start of the year, however, transaction prices are down 1.7%, or $865''', the largest January to June tumble in the past decade.
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| * '''Incentive spend''' increased for the ninth consecutive month in June to the highest level since October 2021, '''averaging $2,048, or 4.2%''', of the average transaction price. One year ago, average incentive spending was 2.3% of ATP.
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| * In June 2023, the average price consumers paid for a new vehicle fell to '''$345 below manufacturers’ suggested retail price (MSRP), or sticker price.'''<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-june-2023/</ref>
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| *
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| === July 2023 ===
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| ==== Used ====
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| * Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) '''decreased 1.6% in July from June'''. <ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/july-2023-muvvi/</ref>
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| * The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 211.7, '''down 11.6% from a year ago.'''
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| * Over the month of July, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 98.6%, meaning market prices were below MMR values.
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| * Compared to last month, all segments were down except one, with sports cars being up by 1.6%. Pickups lost less than the industry month over month, down 0.6%, while vans, compact cars, and luxury lost the most, with declines of 3.2%, 2.8%, and 2.4%, respectively.
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| * '''The average daily sales conversion rate declined to 48.9%, which was below normal for the time of year.''' For context, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 60.1% in July 2019.
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| ==== New ====
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| * A new vehicle’s average transaction price (ATP) '''in July declined 0.7% from June.''' The initial ATP estimate for July is estimated at '''$48,344'''.
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| * The ATP gained a little ground on the average MSRP but remained below the average MSRP. '''The average price was up 0.4% from a year ago''', while the average '''MSRP declined 0.7% in July from June but was up 2.5% from a year ago.'''
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| * Automakers spent on average '''5.5% more on incentives in July to an average of $2,148 per vehicle''', up 83% from last year. Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price increased to '''4.4%''', the highest level since September 2021.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/auto-market-weekly-summary-august-7/</ref>
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| === August 2023 ===
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| ==== Used ====
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| * Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) '''increased 0.2% in August from July'''. <ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/august-2023-muvvi/</ref>
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| * The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 212.2, '''down 7.7% from a year ago.'''
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| * Over the month of August, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 99.3%, meaning market prices were slightly below MMR values.
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| * The average daily sales conversion rate increased to 57.5%, which is much closer to normal for the time of year and higher than what was recorded over the last three months. For context, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 60.0% in August 2019
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| ==== New ====
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| * A new vehicle’s average transaction price (ATP) in August '''increased only 0.6% from July at an initial estimate of $48,451'''. Transaction prices are now down 2.4%, or $1,212, from the start of the year, the largest decrease in the past decade.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/auto-market-weekly-summary-09-11-23/</ref><ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-august-2023/</ref>
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| * The average price lost further ground on the average MSRP, falling to 99.1%, the lowest level since May 2021.
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| * '''The average price was up 0.1% from a year ago''', while the average MSRP increased 0.6% in August from July and was up 2.3% from a year ago.
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| * Manufacturers’ '''average incentive spending increased 10.3% to $2,365''', up 113% from a year ago. Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price increased to 4.9%, the highest level since September 2021.
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| === September 2023 ===
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| ==== Used ====
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| * Wholesale used-vehicle prices increased 1.0% in September from August. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose to 214.3 in September, down 3.9% from a year ago.
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| * Over the month of September, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 99.2%, meaning market prices were slightly below MMR values.
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| * The average daily sales conversion rate declined to 55.7%, which was close to normal for the time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 55.3% in September 2019. The sales conversion rate in September was lower than in August but stronger than in June and July.<ref name=":4">https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/september-2023-muvvi/</ref><ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/september-2023-muvvi/</ref>
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| ==== New ====
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| * The average transaction price of a new vehicle in September was $47,899, down $360 from one year ago (0.7%). Prices decreased by $227 (0.5%) from August’s downwardly revised ATP of $48,126. <ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-september-2023/</ref>
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| * The average price Americans paid for a new vehicle in September 2023 was down 3.4% from the start of the year, as higher inventory levels and increased incentives continued to put downward pressure on pricing.
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| * Incentives averaged $2,368 in September, the highest point in the last 24 months and at 4.9% of ATP.
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| === October 2023 ===
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| ==== Used ==== | | ==== Used ==== |
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| * Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 2.3% in October from September. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) dropped to 209.4, down 4.0% from a year ago. | | * Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were unchanged in January compared to December. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) remained at 204.0 but down 9.2% from a year ago. The index experienced the same 0.0% monthly change from December 2021 to January 2022.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/january-2024-muvvi/</ref> |
| * In October, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values saw above-average weekly declines that peaked in intensity in the middle of the month. Over the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index declined an aggregate of 3.6%. Those same four weeks delivered an average decline of 2.4% in 2014-2019.
| | * Over the month of January, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 99.6%, meaning market prices were just below MMR values but moved higher than year-end. |
| * Over the month of October, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 98.6%, meaning market prices were below MMR values. The average daily sales conversion rate dropped to 52.9%, which indicates that demand has declined but remains at a decent level for this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 52.2% in October 2019.
| | * The average daily sales conversion rate increased to 56.0%, which indicates that demand was improving relative to year-end and fairly normal for this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 55.5% in January during the last three years. |
| * The sales conversion rate in October was the lowest in three months but stronger than in June and July.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/october-2023-muvvi/</ref>
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| ==== New ====
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| * The average transaction price (ATP) for a new vehicle in October 2023 was $47,936, a 1.4% decline year over year; ATPs are down 3.5% from January.<ref>https://mediaroom.kbb.com/2023-11-13-Average-New-Vehicle-Prices-Down-1-4-Year-Over-Year-in-October,-as-Healthy-Inventories,-Higher-Incentives-Help-Buyers</ref>
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| * In October, with a UAW strike underway but new-vehicle inventories on the rise, the average price paid for a new vehicle in the U.S. was $47,936, less than 1% more than the month earlier (revised to $47,797)
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| * New-vehicle incentives in October were down 2.2% from September, while new-vehicle incentives are higher year over year by 117%. After increasing rapidly through the spring and early summer, new-vehicle incentive growth has taken a pause. Average incentive packages have stayed mostly unchanged over the past three months at just under 5% of ATP
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| === November 2023 ===
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| ==== Used ====
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| * Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 2.1% in November from October. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) dropped to 205.0, down 5.8% from a year ago.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/november-2023-muvvi/</ref>
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| * Over the month of November, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 98.7%, meaning market prices were below MMR values. | |
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| * The average daily sales conversion rate was steady at 52.3%, which indicates that demand was stable and relatively strong for the time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 50.8% in November 2019. | |
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| ==== New ==== | | ==== New ==== |
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| * The U.S. new-vehicle average transaction price in November 2023 was $48,247, an increase of less than 1% month over month and down year over year by 1.5%<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-november-2023/</ref> | | * The average transaction price of a new vehicle in January declined 2.6% from December to an initial estimate of $47,401, according to Kelley Blue Book data. This was the lowest average price since May 2022.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/auto-market-weekly-summary-02-12-2024/</ref> |
| * In addition, new-vehicle sales incentives climbed further in November 2023 after retreating slightly in October, surpassing 5% of the average transaction price (ATP) for the first time since September 2021. New-vehicle sales incentives were up 136% year over year in November, indicating the new-vehicle market is shifting to a buyer’s market, not a seller’s market. | | * The average price relative to the average MSRP moved up slightly to 97.1%, from what had been the lowest level since March 2021. The average price was down 3.5% from a year ago. The average MSRP declined 2.6% in January from December and was down 1.6% from last year. |
| * The average price lost ground on the average manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP), declining to 98.3% in November, the lowest level since April 2021. The average price decreased 1.5% from a year ago, while the average MSRP increased nearly 1% from a year ago. In the past decade, new-vehicle MSRPs have never decreased year over year.
| | * The average incentive spend from manufacturers increased 0.7% to $2,703, which was up 93% year over year. Meanwhile, incentives as a percentage of the average transaction price increased to 5.7%, the highest level since July 2021. |
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| === December 2023 === | | === December 2023 === |
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| * The U.S. new-vehicle average transaction price in December 2023 was $48,759, an increase of 1.3% month over month but down 2.4% year over year<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-december-2023/</ref><ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/December-2023-Kelley-Blue-Book-Average-Transaction-Price-tables.pdf</ref> | | * The U.S. new-vehicle average transaction price in December 2023 was $48,759, an increase of 1.3% month over month but down 2.4% year over year<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-december-2023/</ref><ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/December-2023-Kelley-Blue-Book-Average-Transaction-Price-tables.pdf</ref> |
| * New-vehicle sales incentives climbed for the second month in a row in December after retreating slightly in October, reaching 5.5% of the average transaction price (ATP) for the first time since August 2021. For comparison, one year ago, incentives were 2.7% of ATP | | * New-vehicle sales incentives climbed for the second month in a row in December after retreating slightly in October, reaching 5.5% of the average transaction price (ATP) for the first time since August 2021. For comparison, one year ago, incentives were 2.7% of ATP. |
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| == Inventory == | | == Inventory == |
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| * The total supply of unsold used vehicles on dealer lots stood at 2.05 million units at the close of March. That was down from a revised 2.09 million at the end of February and down 10% from 2.3 million in March 2021. | | * The total supply of unsold used vehicles on dealer lots stood at 2.05 million units at the close of March. That was down from a revised 2.09 million at the end of February and down 10% from 2.3 million in March 2021. |
| * The supply of used vehicles at dealerships is at its lowest point in our data, which goes back to 2019. | | * The supply of used vehicles at dealerships is at its lowest point in our data, which goes back to 2019. |
| * Days’ supply at the end of March stood at 40, down from the revised 44 days’ supply at the end of February. Days’ supply was 15% below the year-ago levels.<ref name=":3" /> | | * Days’ supply at the end of March stood at 40, down from the revised 44 days’ supply at the end of February. Days’ supply was 15% below the year-ago levels.<ref name=":3">https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-vehicle-inventory-march-2023/</ref> |
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| ==== New ==== | | ==== New ==== |
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| === September 2023 === | | === September 2023 === |
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| * '''The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index forecast is expected to finish the year down 2.2% year over year.''' Risks remain in the fourth quarter, including the United Auto Workers strike, a possible economic slowdown, and political uncertainty that puts downward pressure on consumer sentiment.<ref name=":4" /> | | * '''The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index forecast is expected to finish the year down 2.2% year over year.''' Risks remain in the fourth quarter, including the United Auto Workers strike, a possible economic slowdown, and political uncertainty that puts downward pressure on consumer sentiment.<ref name=":4">https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/september-2023-muvvi/</ref> |
| * The total '''used-vehicle sales''' forecast for 2023 remained the same by Cox Automotive to be '''35.7 million, 2% below 2022.''' | | * The total '''used-vehicle sales''' forecast for 2023 remained the same by Cox Automotive to be '''35.7 million, 2% below 2022.''' |
| * Cox Automotive raised its '''new car sales full-year forecast to 15.4 million''', from 15 million in June. | | * Cox Automotive raised its '''new car sales full-year forecast to 15.4 million''', from 15 million in June. |
