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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 January: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 January (view source)
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Publishing date: February 13, 2024. | Publishing date: February 13, 2024. | ||
== CPI expectations == | |||
''Range:'' | |||
* CPI: 2.8% - 3.1% | |||
* Core CPI: 3.6% - 3.9% | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|'''Escenario''' | |||
|'''Market reaction''' | |||
|'''Probability by Magaly''' | |||
|- | |||
|CPI below 2.8% | |||
|3%+ rally | |||
|5% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI at 2.8% | |||
|2% Rally | |||
|10% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI in line with expectations | |||
|Flat | |||
|50% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI 3.0% | |||
|1-2% drop | |||
|30% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI above 3.1% | |||
|3% drop | |||
|5% | |||
|} | |||
=== Consensus forecast === | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!Variable | |||
!Forecast | |||
!Previous | |||
|- | |||
|Core CPI (MoM) | |||
|0.3% | |||
|0.3% | |||
|- | |||
|Core CPI (YoY) | |||
|3.7% | |||
|3.9% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI (MoM) | |||
|0.2% | |||
|0.3% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI (YoY) | |||
|2.9% | |||
|3.4% | |||
|} | |||
=== FED Cleveland Forecast === | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!<ref>https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting</ref> | |||
! colspan="2" |YoY Change | |||
! colspan="2" |MoM Change | |||
|- | |||
!Month | |||
!CPI | |||
!Core CPI | |||
!CPI | |||
!Core CPI | |||
|- | |||
|Jan 2024 | |||
|2.94% | |||
|3.81% | |||
|0.13% | |||
|0.32% | |||
|- | |||
|Feb 2023 | |||
|2.86% | |||
|3.64% | |||
|0.33% | |||
|0.31% | |||
|} | |||
=== Individual Institutions === | |||