Personal Consumption Expenditure: Difference between revisions

!Marker Reaction

!Full Release

|-

|Jan-26

|2.6%

|2.90%

|0%

|[https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2024-01/pi1223.pdf Link]

|}

US Commerce department announced that the core personal consumption expenditure rose 0.6% in January and 4.7% year-over-year. This was above the wall street expectations for a 0.5% rise in the month and 4.4% year-over-year increase. Headline Personal Consumption Expenditure rose 0.6% and 5.4%, respectively. Similarly, consumer spending rose 1.8% in January versus 1.4% estimate while Personal income rose 1.4%, higher than the 1.2% estimate. These numbers indicate that inflation remained sticky at the start of the new year. The rise mostly came from energy prices which rose 2% in January. Food prices increased 0.4% while goods and services both rose 0.6%.<ref>https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/24/key-fed-inflation-measure-rose-0point6percent-in-january-more-than-expected.html</ref> It is believed that the "Spending was likely driven by a 8.7% cost of living adjustment, the biggest increase since 1981, for more than 65 million Social Security beneficiaries, which boosted income."<ref>https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-inflation-accelerates-january-consumer-spending-surges-2023-02-24/</ref>

* The increase in personal income primarily reflected an increase in compensation. The increase reflected increases of $78.0 billion in services-producing industries and $22.0 billion in goods-producing industries.<ref>https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-02/pi0123_fax.pdf</ref>

* Real disposable personal income increased 1.4 percent in January and real consumer spending increased 1.1 percent; spending on goods increased 2.2 percent and spending on services increased 0.6 percent.

U.S PCE declined to 5% on a yearly basis in February from 5.3% in January. It was expected to decline by 5.3%. Meanwhile, Core PCE dropped to 4.6% on a yearly basis from 4.7% in January. It was expected to remain flat. On a monthly basis, both headline PCE and core PCE grew 0.3%. Core PCE was expected to rise by 0.4%.

* Real disposable personal income increased 0.2 percent in February. Real consumer spending decreased 0.1 percent reflecting 0.1 percent declines in both spending on goods and spending on services

* Personal Consumption Expenditure(PCE) rose 0.1% in March after rising 0.3% in the previous month. In the 12 months through March, it rose 4.2% versus 5.1% growth in February.  

* Personal income rose 0.3% in March, above the 0.2% estimate while consumer spending was flat as expected.

* Core PCE rose 0.4% in April, above 0.3% estimate.<ref>https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-05/pi0423_fax.pdf</ref>

* The personal saving rate was 4.1 percent in April.

* Core personal consumption expenditures price index(PCE) rose 0.3% in May as expected and below the 0.4% increase in April<ref>https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/29/stock-market-today-live-updates.html</ref>.

* Personal income(nominal) grew 0.4%, above the 0.3% estimate.

* Core PCE rose 0.2% in June in-line with Dow Jones estimate, and lower than the 0.3% increase in May<ref>https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/28/pce-inflation-june-2023-.html</ref>.

* Personal spending(nominal) rose 0.5% in-line with estimates.

* Core PCE increased 0.2% in July, in-line with the forecast and same as in June<ref name=":0">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-31/key-us-inflation-measures-post-modest-gains-while-spending-jumps</ref>.

* Services inflation less housing and energy rose 0.5% in July, the biggest advance since January. Excluding management and investment advice, the gauge rose 0.25% month-over-month.<ref name=":0" />.

* Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% in August, below the 0.2% estimate and lower than the 0.2% gain in July<ref>https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-spending-rises-august-underlying-inflation-slows-2023-09-29/</ref>.

* Super core inflation rose 0.1% for the month after rising 0.5% in July.

* Core PCE rose 0.3% in September<ref>https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-10/pi0923.pdf</ref>, in-line with estimates<ref>https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/27/key-fed-inflation-gauge-rose-0point3percent-as-expected-in-september-spending-tops-estimate.html</ref> and above 0.1% increase in August.

* Year-over-year, headline PCE rose 3.4%, unchanged from August (revised down from 3.5%).

* Core PCE rose 0.2% in October<ref>https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-11/pi1023.pdf</ref> and 3.5% on a yearly basis, both in-line with the estimates<ref>https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/30/pce-inflation-report-october-2023-.html</ref>.

* Headline PCE was flat in October but grew 3% year-over-year, compared to growth of 3.4% year-over-year in September.

* Core PCE rose 0.1% in November<ref>https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-12/pi1123.pdf</ref>, lower than the 0.2% estimate and same as the previous month (revised down from 0.2%).

* Year-over-year, Headline PCE was up 2.6%, lower than 2.8% estimate and 2.9% in October (revised down from 3.0%).

* Core PCE rose 0.2% in December<ref>https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2024-01/pi1223.pdf</ref>, in line with the estimate<ref>https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/26/pce-inflation-december-2023-.html</ref>.