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Housing Market: US: Difference between revisions
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In the residential investment data displayed in Figure 12 there is one false positive in 1951-2 and another in 1966 -67. In both cases housing was weakening substantially but there was no recession. Why is that? Those two false positives occurred coincidentally with a big ramp-up in defense spending for the Korean War and the Vietnam War. Alarms of forthcoming recessions that were met by a response that prevented the recessions from occurring. | In the residential investment data displayed in Figure 12 there is one false positive in 1951-2 and another in 1966 -67. In both cases housing was weakening substantially but there was no recession. Why is that? Those two false positives occurred coincidentally with a big ramp-up in defense spending for the Korean War and the Vietnam War. Alarms of forthcoming recessions that were met by a response that prevented the recessions from occurring. | ||
Also important to point out that is volumes that matter for real GDP accounting, not prices. Prices can matter indirectly through a wealth effect, but be a little skeptical about this. And that the sluggishness of price adjustments is what makes the volume cycle so extreme, and what makes housing so important in recessions. | Also important to point out that is volumes that matter for real GDP accounting, not prices. Prices can matter indirectly through a wealth effect, but be a little skeptical about this. And that the sluggishness of price adjustments is what makes the volume cycle so extreme, and what makes housing so important in recessions. | ||
== NAHB Index == | == NAHB Index == | ||
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=== November 2023 === | === November 2023 === | ||
For the first time since January 2023, the U.S. National Index posted 0.2% month-over-month decreases in November, But After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Indestill increased 0.2 m/m. And the U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.1% annual gain in November, up from a 4.7% rise in the previous month.<ref>https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-announcements/article/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-index-upward-trend-decelerates-in-november/</ref> | For the first time since January 2023, the U.S. National Index posted 0.2% month-over-month decreases in November, But After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Indestill increased 0.2 m/m. And the U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.1% annual gain in November, up from a 4.7% rise in the previous month.<ref>https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-announcements/article/sp-corelogic-case-shiller-index-upward-trend-decelerates-in-november/</ref> | ||
=== December 2023 === | |||
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index in the US declined 0.3% month-over-month in December 2023, following a 0.2% fall in November. Still 6.1% Y/Y. | |||
== Affortability == | == Affortability == | ||