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Consumer Price Index (view source)

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== Upcoming CPI expectations ==
== Upcoming CPI expectations ==
Expectations for January 2024 can be found [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 January|here]]   
Expectations for February 2024 can be found [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 January|here]]   


==Historical CPI Releases==
==Historical CPI Releases==
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''Main article: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases]]''
''Main article: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases]]''


''Latest release: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 December]]''
''Latest release: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 January]]''
 
* CPI rose 0.3% in December, up from 0.1% in November and above 0.2% estimate.
* Yearly, CPI rose 3.4% on the month, up from 3.1% in November and higher than 3.2% estimate.
* Core CPI rose 0.3% in December, unchanged from November’s figure and in-line with the estimate.
* Yearly, core CPI rose 3.9% lower than 4.0% in November and higher than 3.8% estimate.
* Shelter rose 0.5% on the month (November:+0.4%) and was responsible for more than half of the monthly headline increase.
* Energy prices were up 0.4% in December after being down for two consecutive months.
* Supercore inflation was up by 3.9% on a yearly basis, same as in November but rose 0.4% on the month down from 0.44%.


===Recent Inflation History ===
===Recent Inflation History ===
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|'''Market Reaction'''
|'''Market Reaction'''
|'''Full Release'''
|'''Full Release'''
|-
|January 2024
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|-
|-
|December 2023
|December 2023
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Past Developments: [[Wages]]
Past Developments: [[Wages]]


Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.5 percent. <ref name=":03">https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm</ref>
* Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% on the month, lower-than the 0.2% estimate (+0.6% previously).
*In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 19 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $34.55.
* Yearly, average hourly earnings rose 4.3%, lower-than 4.4% estimate (+4.5% previously).
*In January, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 13 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $29.66.  
 
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!Release Date
!Release Date
!Level
! Level
!M/M
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Y/Y
!M/M Forecast
!M/M Forecast
!Y/Y Forecast
!Y/Y Forecast
|-
|2024-02-01
|34.57
|0.14
|4.28
|0.2%
|4.4%
|-
|-
|2024-01-01
|2024-01-01
|34.55
|34.52
|0.55
|0.52
|4.48
| 4.38
|0.3%
|0.3%
|4.1%
|4.1%
|-
|-
|2023-12-01
|2023-12-01
|34.36
|34.34
|0.38
| 0.32
|4.31
|4.25
|0.3%
| 0.3%
|3.9%
|3.9%
|-
|2023-11-01
|34.23
|0.38
|4.26
|0.3%
|4.0%
|}
|}
===2. Supply Chains===
===2. Supply Chains===
Past developments: [[Supply Chain Developments]]
Past developments: [[Supply Chain Developments]]


The GSCPI rose to -0.11 in January, up from -0.15 in December. GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.<ref name=":2">https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive</ref>
The GSCPI rose to 0.10 in February, up from -0.23 in January (revised down from an initial reading of -0.11). GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.<ref name=":22">https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive</ref>
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!Month
!Month
!Index
!Index
|-
|29-Feb-2024
|0.10
|-
|-
|31-Jan-2024
|31-Jan-2024
| -0.11
| -0.23
|-
|-
|31-Dec-2023
|31-Dec-2023
| -0.15
| -0.16
|-
|30-Nov-2023
|0.13
|}
|}
===3. PPI===
===3. PPI===
Past Developments: [[Producer Price Index]]
Past Developments: [[Producer Price Index]]
 
*Producer price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% in January<ref>https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm</ref>, exceeding expectations<ref>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-16/us-producer-prices-increased-by-more-than-forecast-in-january</ref> for a 0.1% increase.
* Producer Price Index (PPI) declined -0.1% m/m, 0.1% was expected
*On a yearly basis, PPI rose 0.9% above 0.6% estimate but lower than December’s 1%.
* On a yearly basis, PPI rose 1%, lower than 1.3% estimate but higher than 0.8% in November (revised down from 0.9%).
*Core PPI grew 0.5%, above 0.1% estimate.
* Core PPI was also flat in November versus forecast for a 0.2% increase.
*On a yearly basis, core PPI was up 2% higher than 1.6% estimate.
* Yearly, core PPI rose 1.8%, lower than 1.9% estimate.
*Services index rose 0.6%, the highest since July 2023.
* Services index was unchanged in December, the same as in November
* Energy prices fell 1.7% in January.
* Energy prices fell 1.2% in December
 
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!'''Producer Price Index'''
!'''Producer Price Index'''
!'''Actual'''<ref name=":04">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-734</ref>
!'''Actual'''<ref name=":0">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-734</ref>
!'''Forecast(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":04" />
!'''Forecast(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":0" />
!'''Previous(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":04" />
!'''Previous(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":0" />
!'''M/M'''<ref name=":1">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-238</ref>
!'''M/M'''<ref name=":12">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-238</ref>
!'''Forecast(M/M)'''<ref name=":1" />
!'''Forecast(M/M)'''<ref name=":12" />
!'''Previous(M/M)<ref name=":1" />'''
!'''Previous(M/M)<ref name=":12" />'''
|-
|2024 January
|0.90%
|0.60%
|1.00%
|0.30%
|0.10%
| -0.10%
|-
|-
|2023 December
|2023 December
|1%
|1.3%
|0.8%
| -0.1%
|0.1%
|0.0%
|-
|2023 November
|0.90%
|1.00%
|1.00%
|1.20%
|1.30%
|0.80%
| -0.10%
|0.10%
|0.00%
|0.00%
|0.10%
| -0.40%
|-
|-
|2023 October
|2023 October
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Important to consider that shelter CPI has a big lag (6-12 months) between current market prices and the correspondent reflection in CPI.\  
Important to consider that shelter CPI has a big lag (6-12 months) between current market prices and the correspondent reflection in CPI.\  
 
{| class="wikitable"
For the first time since January 2023, the U.S. National Index posted 0.2% month-over-month decreases in November, But After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Indestill increased 0.2 m/m. And the U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.1% annual gain in November, up from a 4.7% rise in the previous month.
 
{| class="wikitable"
!
!
! colspan="3" |S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA</ref>
! colspan="3" |S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA</ref>
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!Y/Y
!Y/Y
|-
|-
|2023-11-01
|2023-12-01
|312.15
|310.67
| -0.18
|  -0.37
|5.14
|5.53
|318.24
| 317.39
| -0.28
|6.13
|332.85
| -0.19
|6.95
|-
| 2023-11-01
|311.83
| -0.26
| 5.03
|318.29
| -0.24
| -0.24
|5.40
|5.41
|333.31
|333.46
| -0.14
| -0.11
|6.24
|6.29
|-
|-
|2023-10-01
|2023-10-01
|312.71
|312.62
| 0.09
|0.07
|4.69
|4.66
| 319.02
|319.04
|0.10
|0.10
|4.88
|4.88
|333.77
|333.83
|0.18
|0.18
|5.74
|5.76
|-
|}  
|2023-09-01
|312.43
|0.29
|3.98
|318.70
|0.23
|3.94
|333.17
|0.32
|4.82
|}
=== 5. Food Prices ===
=== 5. Food Prices ===
Past Developments: [[Food Market]]
Past Developments: [[Food Market]]
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CPI food at home prices are highly directionally correlated to on a 6-month lagged basis
CPI food at home prices are highly directionally correlated to on a 6-month lagged basis


* The '''FAO Food Price Index'''* (FFPI) stood at 118.0 points in January 2024, down 1.2 points (1.0 percent) from its revised December level, as decreases in the price indices for cereals and meat more than offset an increase in the sugar price index, while those for dairy and vegetable oils only registered slight adjustments.<ref>https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>
* The '''FAO Food Price Index'''* (FFPI) stood at 117.3 points in February 2024, down 0.9 points (0.7 percent) from its revised January level, as decreases in the price indices for cereals and vegetable oils slightly more than offset increases in those for sugar, meat and dairy products.
* The index stood 13.7 points (10.4 percent) below its corresponding value one year ago.
* The index was down 13.8 points (10.5 percent) from its corresponding value one year ago.<ref name=":13">https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>  


{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
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!Sugar Price Index
!Sugar Price Index
|-
|-
|2023-01
|2023-02
|131.6
|131.1
|111.1
|113.3
|144.7
|138.6
|147.5
|146.7
|140.4
|135.9
|116.8
|125.2
|-
|2023-11
|120.8
|112.0
|116.5
|121.0
|124.1
|161.4
|-
|-
|2023-12
|2023-12
|119.1
|119.2
|111.3
|111.6
|118.8
| 118.8
|122.8
|122.8
|122.3
|122.3
|134.2
| 134.2
|-
|-
|2024-01
|2024-01
|118.0
|118.2
|109.8
|110.5
|118.9
|118.7
|120.1
|119.9
|122.5
|122.5
|135.3
|136.4
|-
|2024-02
|117.3
|112.4
|120.0
|113.8
|120.9
|140.8
|}
|}
===6. Energy===
===6. Energy===
Past Developments: [https://www.investmentwiki.org/wiki/Energy_Industry#Price_Developments Energy Industry]
Past Developments: [https://www.investmentwiki.org/wiki/Energy_Industry#Price_Developments Energy Industry]
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! rowspan="2" |Date
! rowspan="2" |Date
Average Prices
Average Prices
! colspan="3" |WTI<ref name=":5">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO</ref>
! colspan="3" |WTI<ref name=":52">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO</ref>
! colspan="3" |US Regular All Formulations Gas Price<ref name=":6">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW</ref>
! colspan="3" |US Regular All Formulations Gas Price<ref name=":62">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW</ref>
! colspan="3" |Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price<ref name=":7">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP</ref>
! colspan="3" |Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price<ref name=":72">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP</ref>
|-
|-
!Dollars per Barrel NSA
!Dollars per Barrel NSA
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!M/M
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-02-01
|77.25
|4.18
|0.54
|3.21
|4.43
| -5.23
|1.72
|  -45.80
| -27.68
|-
|-
|2024-01-01
|2024-01-01
|74.15
|74.15
|3.13
| 3.13
| -5.08
| -5.08
|3.08
|3.08
Line 681: Line 690:
| -6.82
| -6.82
| -54.37
| -54.37
|-
|2023-11-01
|77.69
| -9.29
| -7.92
|3.32
| -8.16
| -9.96
|2.71
| -9.18
| -50.33
|}
|}
===7. Car Prices===
===7. Car Prices===
Past Developments: [[Automotive Industry:United States#Prices|Automotive Industry:United States]]
Past Developments: [[Automotive Industry:United States#Prices|Automotive Industry:United States]]


===== Used =====
==== Used ====


* Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were unchanged in January compared to December. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) remained at 204.0 but down 9.2% from a year ago. The index experienced the same 0.0% monthly change from December 2021 to January 2022.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/january-2024-muvvi/</ref>
* The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 203.8, a decline of 13.1% from a year ago. The index was down 0.1% against the month of January 2024. The seasonal adjustment magnified February’s results. <ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/february-2024-muvvi/</ref>
* Over the month of January, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 99.6%, meaning market prices were just below MMR values but moved higher than year-end.
* Over the month of February, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 99.9%, meaning market prices were just below MMR values but moved higher than January.
* The average daily sales conversion rate increased to 56.0%, which indicates that demand was improving relative to year-end and fairly normal for this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 55.5% in January during the last three years.
* The average daily sales conversion rate increased to 61.0%, which indicates that demand was improving relative to January, normal for this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 58.6% in February during the last three years.


===== New =====
==== New ====


* The average transaction price of a new vehicle in January declined 2.6% from December to an initial estimate of $47,401, according to Kelley Blue Book data. This was the lowest average price since May 2022.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/auto-market-weekly-summary-02-12-2024/</ref>
* The average transaction price of a new vehicle in February declined 0.1% from January to an initial estimate of $47,244, which was the lowest average price since April 2022, according to Kelley Blue Book<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/auto-market-weekly-summary-03-11-24/</ref>
* The average price relative to the average MSRP moved up slightly to 97.1%, from what had been the lowest level since March 2021. The average price was down 3.5% from a year ago. The average MSRP declined 2.6% in January from December and was down 1.6% from last year.
* The average price relative to the average manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) moved down to 96.9%, which was the lowest level since March 2021. The average price was down 2.2% from a year ago. The average MSRP increased 0.1% in February from January but was down 0.4% year to year.
* The average incentive spend from manufacturers increased 0.7% to $2,703, which was up 93% year over year. Meanwhile, incentives as a percentage of the average transaction price increased to 5.7%, the highest level since July 2021.
* The average incentive spend from manufacturers increased by 4% to $2,808, which was up 88% from a year ago. Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price increased to 5.9%, the highest level since July 2021.


{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
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|-
|-
!Index (1/97 = 100)
!Index (1/97 = 100)
! Manheim Index $ amount SA
!Manheim Index $ amount SA
!Index % MoM
!Index % MoM
!Index % YoY
!Index % YoY
|-
|Feb-24
|203.8
|18,645
| -0.1%
| -13.1%
|-
|-
|Jan-24
|Jan-24
|204.0
|204.0
|18,664
| 18,664
|0.0%
|0.0%
| -9.2%
| -9.2%
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|Dec-23
|Dec-23
|204.0
|204.0
| 18,657
|18,657
| -0.5%
| -0.5%
| -7.0%
| -7.0%
|-
|Nov-23
|205.0
|18,752
| -2.1%
| -5.8%
|}
|}
== CPI During Recession ==
== CPI During Recession ==
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