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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 February: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 February (view source)
Revision as of 17:42, 11 March 2024
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== CPI expectations == | == CPI expectations == | ||
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) | |||
*Wages had a nice surprice to the downside in february, but still remains sticky at ~4% y/y growth. | |||
*Oil and Gasoline both had a close to 5% increase during february | |||
*Food prices continue to decline with a -0.7% m/m | |||
*Supply chain index rose a bit during January, but remains stable. | |||
*Housing prices had another 0.3% m/m decline in December, but remains 5.5% y/y. Rents went up 0.2% in February. | |||
*Used car prices remained flat during January with a -0.1% m/m, and a -13% y/y. New car prices also declined decline 0.1% m/m, they are donw 2.2% y/y. | |||
The markets are now pricing cuts starting in June, and 3-4 cuts during 2024, | |||
[[File:Screenshot 2024-03-11 113940.png|center|thumb|425x425px|https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html]] | |||
''Range:'' | |||
*CPI: 3.0% - 3.2% | |||
*Core CPI: 3.6% - 3.8% | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|'''Escenario''' | |||
|'''Market reaction''' | |||
|'''Probability by Magaly''' | |||
|- | |||
|CPI below 3% | |||
|2%+ rally | |||
|5% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI at 3% | |||
|1% Rally | |||
|10% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI in line with expectations | |||
|Flat | |||
|50% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI 3.2% | |||
|1-2% drop | |||
|30% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI above 3.2% | |||
|3% drop | |||
|5% | |||
|} | |||
===Consensus forecast=== | ===Consensus forecast=== | ||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||