Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 February

Publishing date: March 12, 2024.

Results

Variable	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Core CPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.3%	0.4%
Core CPI (YoY)	3.8%	3.7%	3.9%
CPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%
CPI (YoY)	3.2%	3.1%	3.1%

CPI rose 0.4% in February, in-line with the estimate but up from 0.3% in January.
Yearly, CPI rose 3.2%, up from 3.1% in January and higher than 3.1% estimate.
Core CPI held steady at 0.4% in February and was up 3.8% y/y, both exceeding estimates for a 0.3% and 3.7% increase.
Most of the monthly increase in the headline number came from shelter and energy, which rose 0.4% and 2.3%, respectively.
Supercore inflation was up 4.28% on a yearly basis and 0.47% on a monthly basis (estimate: +0.51%)
Stock futures rose after the release. S&P 500 futures gained 0.4%, Nasdaq Composite added 0.8% while Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.3%.

Index	M/M	Y/Y	Prev. M/M	Prev. Y/Y
Core Goods	0.1%	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
Core Services	0.5%	5.2%	0.7%	5.4%
Shelter	0.4%	5.7%	0.6%	6.0%
Services less shelter "super-core"	0.47%	4.28%	0.85%	4.3%

Some developments during the month: (more details: Consumer Price Index)

Wages had a nice surprice to the downside in february, but still remains sticky at ~4% y/y growth.
Oil and Gasoline both had a close to 5% increase during february
Food prices continue to decline with a -0.7% m/m
Supply chain index rose a bit during January, but remains stable.
Housing prices had another 0.3% m/m decline in December, but remains 5.5% y/y. Rents went up 0.2% in February.
Used car prices remained flat during January with a -0.1% m/m, and a -13% y/y. New car prices also declined decline 0.1% m/m, they are donw 2.2% y/y.

The markets are now pricing cuts starting in June, and 3-4 cuts during 2024,

Range:

Escenario	Market reaction	Probability by Magaly
CPI below 3%	2%+ rally	5%
CPI at 3%	1% Rally	10%
CPI in line with expectations	Flat	50%
CPI 3.2%	1-2% drop	30%
CPI above 3.2%	3% drop	5%