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Consumer Price Index (view source)

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== Upcoming CPI expectations ==
== Upcoming CPI expectations ==
Expectations for February 2024 can be found [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 February|here]]   
Expectations for February 2024 can be found [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 March|here]]   


==Historical CPI Releases==
==Historical CPI Releases==
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''Main article: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases]]''
''Main article: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases]]''


''Latest release: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 January]]''
''Latest release: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 February]]''


===Recent Inflation History ===
===Recent Inflation History ===
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|'''Market Reaction'''
|'''Market Reaction'''
|'''Full Release'''
|'''Full Release'''
|-
|February 2024
|3.2%
|0.4%
|3.1%
|0.1%
|3.8%
|0.4%
|3.7%
|0.1%
|0.47%
|
|[https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_03122024.htm Link]
|-
|-
|January 2024
|January 2024
Line 446: Line 459:
Past Developments: [[Wages]]
Past Developments: [[Wages]]


* Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% on the month, lower-than the 0.2% estimate (+0.6% previously).
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month of March 2024 and 4.1% y/y, both in line with the estimates.
* Yearly, average hourly earnings rose 4.3%, lower-than 4.4% estimate (+4.5% previously).
 
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!Release  Date
!Release  Date<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003</ref>
! Level
!Level
!M/M
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Y/Y
!M/M Forecast
!M/M Forecast
!Y/Y Forecast
!Y/Y Forecast
|-
| 2024-03-01
|34.69
|0.35
|4.14
|0.3%
|4.1%
|-
|-
|2024-02-01
|2024-02-01
|34.57
|34.57
|0.14
|0.17
|4.28
|4.28
|0.2%
|0.2%
Line 465: Line 483:
|-
|-
|2024-01-01
|2024-01-01
|34.52
|34.51
|0.52
|0.50
| 4.38
|4.35
|0.3%
|0.3%
|4.1%
|4.1%
|-
|2023-12-01
|34.34
| 0.32
|4.25
| 0.3%
|3.9%
|}
|}
===2. Supply Chains===
===2. Supply Chains===
Past developments: [[Supply Chain Developments]]
Past developments: [[Supply Chain Developments]]


The GSCPI rose to 0.10 in February, up from -0.23 in January (revised down from an initial reading of -0.11). GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.<ref name=":22">https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive</ref>
The GSCPI fell to -0.27 in March, down from -0.11 in February (revised down from an initial reading of 0.10). GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/overview</ref>
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!Month
!Month
!Index
!Index
|-
|31-Mar-2024
| -0.27
|-
|-
|29-Feb-2024
|29-Feb-2024
|0.10
| -0.11
|-
|-
|31-Jan-2024
|31-Jan-2024
| -0.23
| -0.24
|-
|31-Dec-2023
| -0.16
|}
|}
===3. PPI===
===3. PPI===
Past Developments: [[Producer Price Index]]
Past Developments: [[Producer Price Index]]
*Producer price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% in January<ref>https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm</ref>, exceeding expectations<ref>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-16/us-producer-prices-increased-by-more-than-forecast-in-january</ref> for a 0.1% increase.
*Producer price Index (PPI) rose 0.6% in February, exceeding expectations for a 0.3% increase.
*On a yearly basis, PPI rose 0.9% above 0.6% estimate but lower than December’s 1%.
*On a yearly basis, PPI rose 1.6%, above 1.2% estimate.
*Core PPI grew 0.5%, above 0.1% estimate.
*Core PPI grew 0.3%, above 0.2% estimate.
*On a yearly basis, core PPI was up 2% higher than 1.6% estimate.
*On a yearly basis, core PPI was up 2% higher than 1.9% estimate.
*Services index rose 0.6%, the highest since July 2023.
*Services index rose 0.3% versus 0.5% increase in January.
* Energy prices fell 1.7% in January.
* Energy prices rose 4.4% after a decline of 1.1% in January.
*S&P 500 futures rose despite the inflation coming above estimates- S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.2% while Dow Jones futures were up 0.3%.
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!'''Producer Price Index'''
!'''Producer Price Index'''
!'''Actual'''<ref name=":0">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-734</ref>
!'''Actual'''<ref name=":02">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-734</ref>
!'''Forecast(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":0" />
!'''Forecast(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":02" />
!'''Previous(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":0" />
!'''Previous(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":02" />
!'''M/M'''<ref name=":12">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-238</ref>
!'''M/M'''<ref name=":1">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-238</ref>
!'''Forecast(M/M)'''<ref name=":12" />
!'''Forecast(M/M)'''<ref name=":1" />
!'''Previous(M/M)<ref name=":12" />'''
!'''Previous(M/M)<ref name=":1" />'''
|-
|2024 February
|1.60%
|1.10%
|1.0%
|0.60%
|0.30%
|0.30%
|-
|-
|2024 January
|2024 January
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|0.10%
|0.10%
|0.00%
|0.00%
|-
|2023 October
|1.30%
|1.90%
|2.20%
| -0.50%
|0.10%
|0.40%
|}
|}
===4. Housing Market===
===4. Housing Market===
Past Developments: [[Housing Market: US#Price Developments|Housing Market: US]]
Past Developments: [[Housing Market: US#Price Developments|Housing Market: US]]


Important to consider that shelter CPI has a big lag (6-12 months) between current market prices and the correspondent reflection in CPI.\
Important to consider that shelter CPI has a big lag (6-12 months) between current market prices and the correspondent reflection in CPI.  
 
==== Housing ====
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!
!
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!M/M
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-01-01
|310.46
| -0.10
|6.03
|317.07
| -0.11
|6.59
|332.78
| -0.04
|7.37
|-
|-
|2023-12-01
|2023-12-01
|310.67
|310.76
| -0.37
| -0.38
|5.53
|5.58
| 317.39
|317.42
| -0.28
| -0.30
|6.13
|6.15
|332.85
|332.90
| -0.19
| -0.21
|6.95
|6.99
|-
|-
| 2023-11-01
|2023-11-01
|311.83
|311.94
| -0.26
| -0.26
| 5.03
|5.08
|318.29
|318.37
| -0.24
| -0.25
|5.41
|5.45
|333.46
|333.59
| -0.11
| -0.12
|6.29
|6.33
|-
|}
|2023-10-01
 
|312.62
==== Rents ====
|0.07
The rental market continued to pull out of its slow season in March; prices ticked up 0.6 percent this month, the second consecutive monthly increase following six straight months of rent declines. The nationwide median rent now stands at $1,388.<ref>https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data</ref>
|4.66
 
|319.04
* Rents are up 0.6% month-over-month, down 0.8% year-over-year. Year-to-date, the national median rent is up by a total of 0.9% so far in 2024, which is slightly faster than the 2017 to 2019 average (+0.7%).
|0.10
 
|4.88
|333.83
|0.18
|5.76
|}
=== 5. Food Prices ===
=== 5. Food Prices ===
Past Developments: [[Food Market]]
Past Developments: [[Food Market]]
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CPI food at home prices are highly directionally correlated to on a 6-month lagged basis
CPI food at home prices are highly directionally correlated to on a 6-month lagged basis


* The '''FAO Food Price Index'''* (FFPI) stood at 117.3 points in February 2024, down 0.9 points (0.7 percent) from its revised January level, as decreases in the price indices for cereals and vegetable oils slightly more than offset increases in those for sugar, meat and dairy products.
* The '''FAO Food Price Index'''* (FFPI) stood at 118.3 points in March 2024, up 1.3 points (1.1 percent) from its revised February level, as increases in the price indices for vegetable oils, dairy products and meat slightly more than offset decreases in those for sugar and cereals.
* The index was down 13.8 points (10.5 percent) from its corresponding value one year ago.<ref name=":13">https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>  
* The index, although it registered a first uptick in March following a seven-month long declining trend, was down 9.9 points (7.7percent) from its corresponding value one year ago.<ref>https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>


{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!Date
!Date
!Food Price Index
!Food Price Index
!Meat Price Index
!Meat
!Dairy Price Index
!Dairy
!Cereals Price Index
!Cereals
!Oils Price Index
!Oils
!Sugar Price Index
!Sugar
|-
|-
|2023-02
|2024-03
|131.1
|118.3
|113.3
|113.0
|138.6
|124.2
|146.7
|110.8
|135.9
|130.6
|125.2
|133.1
|-
|-
|2023-12
|2024-02
|119.2
|117.0
|111.6
|111.1
| 118.8
|120.7
|122.8
|113.8
|122.3
|120.9
| 134.2
|140.8
|-
|-
|2024-01
|2024-01
|118.2
|117.7
|110.5
|109.0
|118.7
|118.7
|119.9
|119.9
Line 631: Line 651:
|136.4
|136.4
|-
|-
|2024-02
|2023-12
|117.3
|119.2
|112.4
|111.6
|120.0
|118.8
|113.8
|122.8
|120.9
|122.3
|140.8
|134.2
|}
|}
===6. Energy===
===6. Energy===
Past Developments: [https://www.investmentwiki.org/wiki/Energy_Industry#Price_Developments Energy Industry]
Past Developments: [https://www.investmentwiki.org/wiki/Energy_Industry#Price_Developments Energy Industry]
Line 644: Line 665:
! rowspan="2" |Date
! rowspan="2" |Date
Average Prices
Average Prices
! colspan="3" |WTI<ref name=":52">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO</ref>
! colspan="3" | WTI<ref name=":5">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO</ref>
! colspan="3" |US Regular All Formulations Gas Price<ref name=":62">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW</ref>
! colspan="3" |US Regular All Formulations Gas Price<ref name=":6">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW</ref>
! colspan="3" |Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price<ref name=":72">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP</ref>
! colspan="3" |Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price<ref name=":7">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP</ref>
|-
|-
!Dollars per Barrel NSA
!Dollars per Barrel NSA
! M/M
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Y/Y
!Dollars per Gallon NSA
!Dollars per Gallon NSA
Line 657: Line 678:
!M/M
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-03-01
|81.28
|5.22
|10.92
|3.43
|6.66
|0.10
|1.49
| -13.27
| -35.25
|-
|-
|2024-02-01
|2024-02-01
Line 666: Line 698:
| -5.23
| -5.23
|1.72
|1.72
| -45.80
| -45.80
| -27.68
| -27.68
|-
|-
|2024-01-01
|2024-01-01
|74.15
|74.15
| 3.13
|3.13
| -5.08
| -5.08
|3.08
|3.08
Line 689: Line 721:
|2.52
|2.52
| -6.82
| -6.82
| -54.37
| -54.37
|}
|}
===7. Car Prices===
===7. Car Prices===
Past Developments: [[Automotive Industry:United States#Prices|Automotive Industry:United States]]
Past Developments: [[Automotive Industry:United States#Prices|Automotive Industry:United States]]
=== '''March 2024''' ===


==== Used ====
==== Used ====


* The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 203.8, a decline of 13.1% from a year ago. The index was down 0.1% against the month of January 2024. The seasonal adjustment magnified February’s results. <ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/february-2024-muvvi/</ref>
* The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 203.1, a decline of 14.7% from a year ago. The decline in the index was driven by the seasonal adjustment, resulting in a 0.4% month-over-month decrease.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/march-2024-muvvi/</ref>
* Over the month of February, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 99.9%, meaning market prices were just below MMR values but moved higher than January.
* Over the month of March, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 99.5%, meaning market prices were below MMR values and falling against February levels, which were 99.9%.
* The average daily sales conversion rate increased to 61.0%, which indicates that demand was improving relative to January, normal for this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 58.6% in February during the last three years.
* The average daily sales conversion rate increased to 62.5%, showing that demand improved relative to February, which is seasonally normal for this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 62.0% in March during the last three years.


==== New ====
====New====


* The average transaction price of a new vehicle in February declined 0.1% from January to an initial estimate of $47,244, which was the lowest average price since April 2022, according to Kelley Blue Book<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/auto-market-weekly-summary-03-11-24/</ref>
* The average transaction price of a new vehicle in March declined 0.9% from February to an initial estimate of $47,255, the lowest average price since April 2022, according to Kelley Blue Book. <ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/auto-market-weekly-summary-04-08-24/</ref>
* The average price relative to the average manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) moved down to 96.9%, which was the lowest level since March 2021. The average price was down 2.2% from a year ago. The average MSRP increased 0.1% in February from January but was down 0.4% year to year.
* The average price relative to the average manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) moved down to 97.6%, the lowest level since April 2021. The average price was down 2.6% year over year. The average MSRP declined 0.8% in March and was down 0.6% year over year.
* The average incentive spend from manufacturers increased by 4% to $2,808, which was up 88% from a year ago. Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price increased to 5.9%, the highest level since July 2021.
* The average incentive spend from manufacturers increased 11% to $3,120, which was up 102% year over year. Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price increased to 5.9%, the highest level since July 2021.


{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
! colspan="4" |Used Car Index
|-
!Index (1/97 = 100)
!Manheim Index $ amount SA
!Index % MoM
!Index % YoY
|-
|Feb-24
|203.8
|18,645
| -0.1%
| -13.1%
|-
|Jan-24
|204.0
| 18,664
|0.0%
| -9.2%
|-
|Dec-23
|204.0
|18,657
| -0.5%
| -7.0%
|}
== CPI During Recession ==
== CPI During Recession ==
[[File:FjjZBKRWIAITa5Y.png|thumb|https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1601366332527693824/photo/1|alt=|center|552x552px]]
[[File:FjjZBKRWIAITa5Y.png|thumb|https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1601366332527693824/photo/1|alt=|center|552x552px]]
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