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Consumer Price Index: Difference between revisions

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Consumer Price Index (view source)

Revision as of 18:26, 14 May 2024

2,575 bytes added ,  14 May 2024
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Past Developments: [[Wages]]
Past Developments: [[Wages]]


Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month of March 2024 and 4.1% y/y, both in line with the estimates.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% for the month and 3.9% y/y, both lower-than estimates.
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!Release  Date<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003</ref>
!Release  Date<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003</ref>
Line 481: Line 481:
!Y/Y Forecast
!Y/Y Forecast
|-
|-
| 2024-03-01
|2024-04-01
|34.69
|34.75
|0.20
|3.92
|0.3%
|4%
|-
|2024-03-01
| 34.68
|0.35
|0.35
|4.14
|4.11
|0.3%
|0.3%
|4.1%
|4.1%
|-
|-
|2024-02-01
|2024-02-01
|34.57
|34.56
|0.17
|0.14
|4.28
|4.25
|0.2%
|0.2%
|4.4%
|4.4%
|-
|2024-01-01
|34.51
|0.50
|4.35
|0.3%
|4.1%
|}
|}
===2. Supply Chains===
===2. Supply Chains===
Past developments: [[Supply Chain Developments]]
Past developments: [[Supply Chain Developments]]


The GSCPI fell to -0.27 in March, down from -0.11 in February (revised down from an initial reading of 0.10). GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/overview</ref>
The GSCPI fell to -0.85 in April, down from -0.30 in March (revised down from an initial reading of -0.27). GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.<ref name=":0">https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/overview</ref>
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!Month
!Month
!Index
!Index
|-
|30-Apr-2024
| -0.85
|-
|-
|31-Mar-2024
|31-Mar-2024
| -0.27
| -0.30
|-
|-
|29-Feb-2024
|29-Feb-2024
| -0.11
| -0.13
|-
|31-Jan-2024
| -0.24
|}
|}
===3. PPI===
===3. PPI===
Past Developments: [[Producer Price Index]]
Past Developments: [[Producer Price Index]]
*Producer price Index (PPI) rose 0.6% in February, exceeding expectations for a 0.3% increase.
 
*On a yearly basis, PPI rose 1.6%, above 1.2% estimate.
* Producer price index rose 0.5% in April, higher than 0.3% estimate and -0.1% in March (revised down from 0.2%).
*Core PPI grew 0.3%, above 0.2% estimate.
* Core PPI increased by 0.5%, also exceeding 0.2% estimate.
*On a yearly basis, core PPI was up 2% higher than 1.9% estimate.
* On a yearly basis, PPI rose 2.2% in-line with the estimate but above 1.8% in March (revised down from 2.1%).
*Services index rose 0.3% versus 0.5% increase in January.
* Core PPI increased by 2.4% on a yearly basis, in-line with the estimate but higher than 2.1% in March (revised down from 2.4%).
* Energy prices rose 4.4% after a decline of 1.1% in January.
* Service inflation accounted for about three-quarters of the headline gain, rising by 0.6% in April-the biggest monthly gain since July 2023.
*S&P 500 futures rose despite the inflation coming above estimates- S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.2% while Dow Jones futures were up 0.3%.
* Energy index rose 2% in April after declining by 1.3% in March.
 
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!'''Producer Price Index'''
!'''Producer Price Index'''
!'''Actual'''<ref name=":02">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-734</ref>
!'''Actual'''<ref name=":02">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-734</ref>
!'''Forecast(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":02" />
!'''Forecast(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":02" />
!'''Previous(Y/Y)'''<ref name=":02" />
!'''M/M'''<ref name=":1">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-238</ref>
!'''M/M'''<ref name=":1">https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-238</ref>
!'''Forecast(M/M)'''<ref name=":1" />
!'''Forecast(M/M)'''<ref name=":1" />
!'''Previous(M/M)<ref name=":1" />'''
|-
|-
|2024 February
|2024 February
|1.60%
|2.19
|1.10%
|1.10%
|1.0%
|0.52
|0.60%
|0.30%
|0.30%
|0.30%
|-
|-
|2024 January
|2024 January
|0.90%
|1.83
|0.60%
|0.60%
|1.00%
| -0.10
|0.30%
|0.10%
|0.10%
| -0.10%
|-
|-
|2023 December
|2023 December
|1.00%
|1.58
|1.30%
|1.30%
|0.80%
| 0.58
| -0.10%
|0.10%
|0.10%
|0.00%
|}
|}
===4. Housing Market===
===4. Housing Market===
Line 573: Line 566:
! colspan="3" |S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index
! colspan="3" |S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index
|-
|-
!Date
! Date
!Index
!Index
!M/M
!M/M
Line 583: Line 576:
!M/M
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Y/Y
|-
| 2024-02-01
| 312.18
|0.59
|6.38
| 319.95
|0.92
|7.29
|336.00
|0.98
| 8.04
|-
|-
|2024-01-01
|2024-01-01
|310.46
|310.36
| -0.10
| -0.11
|6.03
|5.99
|317.07
| 317.03
| -0.11
| -0.11
|6.59
|6.58
|332.78
|332.73
| -0.04
| -0.03
|7.37
|7.36
|-
|-
|2023-12-01
|2023-12-01
|310.76
|310.71
| -0.38
| -0.39
|5.58
|5.56
|317.42
|317.37
| -0.30
| -0.31
|6.15
|6.14
|332.90
|332.83
| -0.21
| -0.22
|6.99
| 6.97
|-
|-
|2023-11-01
|2023-11-01
|311.94
| 311.92
| -0.27
|5.07
|318.35
| -0.26
| -0.26
|5.08
|5.44
|318.37
|333.56
| -0.25
| -0.14
|5.45
|6.32
|333.59
| -0.12
|6.33
|}
|}
==== Rents ====
==== Rents ====
The rental market continued to pull out of its slow season in March; prices ticked up 0.6 percent this month, the second consecutive monthly increase following six straight months of rent declines. The nationwide median rent now stands at $1,388.<ref>https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data</ref>
Rent prices ticked up for the third straight month, but rent growth remains modest, signaling ongoing sluggishness in the market. The national median rent increased by 0.5% in April and now stands at $1,396. <ref name=":03">https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data?utm_source=twitter.com</ref>
 
*Rents are up 0.5% month-over-month, down 0.8% year-over-year.
* Rents are up 0.6% month-over-month, down 0.8% year-over-year. Year-to-date, the national median rent is up by a total of 0.9% so far in 2024, which is slightly faster than the 2017 to 2019 average (+0.7%).
*The national vacancy index continues trending up and stands today at 6.7 percent. After a historic tightening in 2021, multifamily occupancy has been slowly but consistently easing for over two years.
 
*83 of the nation’s 100 largest cities saw rents go up in April. But on a year-over-year basis, rent growth is positive for only 43 of these cities
=== 5. Food Prices ===
=== 5. Food Prices ===
Past Developments: [[Food Market]]
Past Developments: [[Food Market]]


CPI food at home prices are highly directionally correlated to on a 6-month lagged basis
CPI food at home prices are highly directionally correlated to on a 6-month lagged basis.
 
* The '''FAO Food Price Index'''* (FFPI) stood at 118.3 points in March 2024, up 1.3 points (1.1 percent) from its revised February level, as increases in the price indices for vegetable oils, dairy products and meat slightly more than offset decreases in those for sugar and cereals.
* The index, although it registered a first uptick in March following a seven-month long declining trend, was down 9.9 points (7.7percent) from its corresponding value one year ago.<ref>https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>


The '''FAO Food Price Index'''* (FFPI) stood at 119.1 points in April 2024, up 0.3 points (0.3 percent) from its revised March level, as an increase in the price index for meat and smaller upturns of vegetable oil and cereal indices slightly more than offset decreases in those for sugar and dairy products. Although it registered a second monthly uptick in April following a seven-month long declining trend, the FFPI was down 9.6 points (7.4 percent) from its corresponding value one year ago.<ref name=":04">https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!Date
!Date
Line 640: Line 641:
!Sugar
!Sugar
|-
|-
|2024-03
|2024-04
|118.3
|119.1
|113.0
|116.3
|124.2
|123.7
|110.8
|111.2
|130.9
|127.5
|-
| 2024-03
|118.8
|114.5
|124.0
|110.9
|130.6
|130.6
|133.1
| 133.4
|-
|-
|2024-02
|2024-02
|117.0
|117.4
|111.1
|112.5
|120.7
|120.7
|113.8
|113.8
Line 667: Line 676:
|119.2
|119.2
|111.6
|111.6
|118.8
|118.7
|122.8
|122.8
|122.3
|122.3
|134.2
|134.2
|}
|}
===6. Energy===
===6. Energy===
Past Developments: [https://www.investmentwiki.org/wiki/Energy_Industry#Price_Developments Energy Industry]
Past Developments: [https://www.investmentwiki.org/wiki/Energy_Industry#Price_Developments Energy Industry]
Line 678: Line 686:
! rowspan="2" |Date
! rowspan="2" |Date
Average Prices
Average Prices
! colspan="3" | WTI<ref name=":5">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO</ref>
! colspan="3" |WTI<ref name=":52">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO</ref>
! colspan="3" |US Regular All Formulations Gas Price<ref name=":6">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW</ref>
! colspan="3" |US Regular All Formulations Gas Price<ref name=":62">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW</ref>
! colspan="3" |Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price<ref name=":7">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP</ref>
! colspan="3" |Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price<ref name=":72">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP</ref>
|-
|-
!Dollars per Barrel NSA
!Dollars per Barrel NSA
Line 691: Line 699:
!M/M
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-04-01
|85.35
|5.01
|7.43
|3.61
|5.43
|0.23
|1.60
|7.11
| -26.08
|-
|-
|2024-03-01
|2024-03-01
Line 723: Line 742:
|3.18
|3.18
|25.89
|25.89
| -2.96
| -2.96
|-
|-
|2023-12-01
|2023-12-01
Line 734: Line 753:
|2.52
|2.52
| -6.82
| -6.82
| -54.37
| -54.37
|}
|}
===7. Car Prices===
===7. Car Prices===
Past Developments: [[Automotive Industry:United States#Prices|Automotive Industry:United States]]
Past Developments: [[Automotive Industry:United States#Prices|Automotive Industry:United States]]


'''March 2024'''
==== April 2024 ====


==== Used ====
=====Used=====


* The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 203.1, a decline of 14.7% from a year ago. The decline in the index was driven by the seasonal adjustment, resulting in a 0.4% month-over-month decrease.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/march-2024-muvvi/</ref>
* The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 198.4, a decline of 14.0% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index magnified the results for the month, resulting in a 2.3% month-over-month decrease. <ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/april-2024-muvvi/</ref>
* Over the month of March, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 99.5%, meaning market prices were below MMR values and falling against February levels, which were 99.9%.
* In April, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values saw weekly decreases that were slightly above long-term averages during each week of the month. Over the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index decreased an aggregate of 1.6%, including a decline of 0.5% in the last week of the month.
* The average daily sales conversion rate increased to 62.5%, showing that demand improved relative to February, which is seasonally normal for this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 62.0% in March during the last three years.
* Over the month of April, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 98.3%, meaning market prices fell below MMR values and declined against March as well, which was 99.4%
* The average daily sales conversion rate dropped to 59.6%, showing that demand declined relative to March, which is seasonally normal for this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 60.4% in April during the last three years.
* The average retail listing price for a used vehicle was up 2% over the last four weeks.   


====New====
===== New=====


* The average transaction price of a new vehicle in March declined 0.9% from February to an initial estimate of $47,255, the lowest average price since April 2022, according to Kelley Blue Book. <ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/auto-market-weekly-summary-04-08-24/</ref>
* Downward slide in new-vehicle prices through the first quarter of 2024 reversed course in April, with average transaction prices (ATPs) increasing by 2.2% to $48,510, the highest prices since December 2023. Year over year, new-vehicle transaction prices were lower by 0.5%.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/april-2024-atp-report/</ref>
* The average price relative to the average manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP) moved down to 97.6%, the lowest level since April 2021. The average price was down 2.6% year over year. The average MSRP declined 0.8% in March and was down 0.6% year over year.
* The average incentive package in April was 6.3% of the average transaction price, according to Kelley Blue Book estimates, down from 6.6% in the prior month. The incentive decline in April was the first decrease since October 2023
* The average incentive spend from manufacturers increased 11% to $3,120, which was up 102% year over year. Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price increased to 5.9%, the highest level since July 2021.
* Luxury transaction prices increased 2.4% from the prior month and incentives were notably lower, at 6.0% of ATP, down from 7.4% of ATP in March. Still, luxury brand prices in April were lower by 2.1% year over year, indicating that price pressure remains front and center
* Prices of non-luxury vehicles were higher month over month in April by 2.1% and were mostly flat year over year, down by only 0.2%.
* Electric vehicle transaction prices in April were essentially flat versus March – up roughly 0.1% – at $55,252, an increase of only $75 from the prior month. Year over year, the average transaction price for an EV was down 8.5%, thanks in part to price pressure on EVs driven by slowing sales, healthy inventory, and more competition. Electric vehicle incentive packages remain well above the industry average, in many cases more than 15-to-20% of ATP.


=== 8. Import Prices ===
=== 8. Import Prices ===
Past Developments: [[Import Prices]]
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan="2" |Date
!Import Prices
!Import Prices M/M Level
!Import Prices M/M
!Import Prices 3M Ann
!Import Prices 6M Ann
!Import Prices Y/Y
|-
!Default Units Index 2000=100 NSA<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IR</ref>
!
!
!
!
!
|-
|2024-03-01
|140.40
|0.60
|0.43
|5.91
| -0.85
|0.36
|-
|2024-02-01
|139.80
|0.40
|0.29
|1.15
| -0.71
| -0.85
|-
|2024-01-01
|139.40
|1.00
|0.72
| -1.98
|0.00
| -1.34
|-
|2023-12-01
|138.40
| -1.00
| -0.72
| -7.17
| -1.43
| -2.40
|}


=== 9. PMIs Price Index ===
=== 9. PMIs Price Index ===
{| class="wikitable"
!
! colspan="2" |Prices Paid
|-
!Month
!PMI Manufacturing<ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ism-manufacturing-prices-174</ref><ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-manufacturing-prices</ref>
!PMI Services<ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ism-non-manufacturing-prices-1049</ref><ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-non-manufacturing-prices</ref>
|-
|Apr-24
|60.9
|59.2
|-
|Mar-24
|55.8
|53.4
|-
|Feb-24
|52.5
|58.6
|-
|Jan-24
|52.9
|64
|-
|Dec-23
|45.2
|57.4
|-
| Nov-23
|49.9
| 58.3
|-
|Oct-23
|45.1
|58.6
|-
|Sep-23
|43.8
|58.9
|}


==== Manufacturing ====
=== 10. Small Business Prices ===
 
==== Services ====
 
=== 10. Small Businesses Prices ===


== CPI During Recession ==
== CPI During Recession ==
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