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Consumer Price Index (view source)

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== Upcoming CPI expectations ==
== Upcoming CPI expectations ==
Expectations for April 2024 can be found [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 April|here]]   
Expectations for May 2024 can be found [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 May|here]]   


==Historical CPI Releases==
==Historical CPI Releases==
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''Main article: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases]]''
''Main article: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases]]''


''Latest release: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 March]]''
''Latest release: [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 April]]''


===Recent Inflation History ===
===Recent Inflation History ===
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|'''Market Reaction'''
|'''Market Reaction'''
|'''Full Release'''
|'''Full Release'''
|-
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 April|May 2024]]
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 April|April 2024]]
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 April|April 2024]]
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===1. Wages===
===1. Wages===
Past Developments: [[Wages]]
Past Developments: [[Wages]]
Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% for the month and 3.9% y/y, both lower-than estimates.
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!Release  Date<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003</ref>
!Release  Date<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003</ref>
!Level
!Level
!M/M
! M/M
!Y/Y
!Y/Y
!M/M Forecast
!M/M Forecast
!Y/Y Forecast
!Y/Y Forecast
|-
|2024-05-01
|34.91
|0.40
|4.08
|0.3%
|3.9%
|-
|-
|2024-04-01
|2024-04-01
|34.75
| 34.77
|0.20
|0.23
|3.92
|3.98
|0.3%
|0.3%
|4%
|4%
|-
|-
|2024-03-01
|2024-03-01
| 34.68
|34.69
|0.35
|0.38
|4.11
|4.14
|0.3%
|0.3%
|4.1%
|4.1%
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|0.14
|0.14
|4.25
|4.25
|0.2%
| 0.2%
|4.4%
|4.4%
|}
|}
===2. Supply Chains===
===2. Supply Chains===
Past developments: [[Supply Chain Developments]]
Past developments: [[Supply Chain Developments]]
The GSCPI fell to -0.85 in April, down from -0.30 in March (revised down from an initial reading of -0.27). GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average.<ref name=":0">https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/overview</ref>
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!Month
!Month<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive</ref>
!Index
!Index
|-
|31-May-2024
| -0.48
|-
|-
|30-Apr-2024
|30-Apr-2024
| -0.85
| -0.92
|-
|-
|31-Mar-2024
|31-Mar-2024
| -0.30
| -0.32
|-
|-
|29-Feb-2024
|29-Feb-2024
| -0.13
| -0.17
|}
|}
===3. PPI===
===3. PPI===
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! colspan="3" |S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index
! colspan="3" |S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index
|-
|-
! Date
!Date
!Index
!Index
!M/M
!M/M
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!Y/Y
!Y/Y
|-
|-
| 2024-02-01
|2024-03-01
| 312.18
|316.65
|0.59
|1.28
|6.38
|6.49
| 319.95
|325.09
|0.92
|1.57
|7.29
|7.38
|336.00
|341.75
|0.98
|1.65
| 8.04
|8.17
|-
|2024-02-01
|312.63
|0.68
| 6.53
|320.05
|0.90
|7.33
|336.21
|0.97
|8.10
|-
|-
|2024-01-01
|2024-01-01
|310.36
|310.52
| -0.11
| -0.08
|5.99
| 6.05
| 317.03
|317.18
| -0.11
| -0.13
|6.58
|6.63
|332.73
|332.97
| -0.03
| -0.06
|7.36
|7.44
|-
|-
|2023-12-01
|2023-12-01
|310.71
|310.77
| -0.39
| -0.38
|5.56
|5.58
|317.37
|317.61
| -0.31
| -0.29
|6.14
|6.22
|332.83
|333.18
| -0.22
| -0.19
| 6.97
|7.08
|-
|-
|2023-11-01
|2023-11-01
| 311.92
|311.97
| -0.27
|5.07
|318.35
| -0.26
| -0.26
|5.44
|5.09
|333.56
|318.53
| -0.14
| -0.23
|6.32
|5.50
|333.83
| -0.09
| 6.41
|}
|}
==== Rents ====
==== Rents ====
Rent prices ticked up for the third straight month, but rent growth remains modest, signaling ongoing sluggishness in the market. The national median rent increased by 0.5% in April and now stands at $1,396. <ref name=":03">https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data?utm_source=twitter.com</ref>
Rent prices ticked up for the fourth straight month, but rent growth over the course of 2024 as a whole remains modest, signaling ongoing sluggishness in the market. The national median rent increased by 0.5% in May and now stands at $1,404
*Rents are up 0.5% month-over-month, down 0.8% year-over-year.
*Rents are up 0.5% month-over-month, down 0.8% year-over-year
*The national vacancy index continues trending up and stands today at 6.7 percent. After a historic tightening in 2021, multifamily occupancy has been slowly but consistently easing for over two years.
*Vacancy index sits at 6.7 percent, the highest reading since August 2020. And there’s good reason to expect that it could rise even further during the remainder of the year. Despite a recent slowdown in new permits being issued and new construction projects breaking ground, the number of multifamily units under construction remains near record levels.
*83 of the nation’s 100 largest cities saw rents go up in April. But on a year-over-year basis, rent growth is positive for only 43 of these cities
*Rents up month-over-month in 80 of 100 largest cities, up year-over-year in 43
=== 5. Food Prices ===
=== 5. Food Prices ===
Past Developments: [[Food Market]]
Past Developments: [[Food Market]]
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CPI food at home prices are highly directionally correlated to on a 6-month lagged basis.
CPI food at home prices are highly directionally correlated to on a 6-month lagged basis.


The '''FAO Food Price Index'''* (FFPI) stood at 119.1 points in April 2024, up 0.3 points (0.3 percent) from its revised March level, as an increase in the price index for meat and smaller upturns of vegetable oil and cereal indices slightly more than offset decreases in those for sugar and dairy products. Although it registered a second monthly uptick in April following a seven-month long declining trend, the FFPI was down 9.6 points (7.4 percent) from its corresponding value one year ago.<ref name=":04">https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>
The '''FAO Food Price Index'''* (FFPI) stood at 120.4 points in May 2024, up 1.1 points (0.9 percent) from its revised April level, as increases in the price indices for cereals and dairy products slightly more than offset decreases in those for sugar and vegetable oils, while the meat price index was almost unchanged. Although it registered a third consecutive monthly uptick in May, the FFPI remained down 3.4 percent from its corresponding value one year ago and 24.9 percent below the peak of 160.2 points reached in March 2022.<ref name=":05">https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!Date
!Date
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!Oils
!Oils
!Sugar
!Sugar
|-
|2024-05
|120.4
|116.6
|126.0
|118.7
|127.8
|117.1
|-
|-
|2024-04
|2024-04
|119.1
|119.3
|116.3
|116.8
|123.7
|123.8
|111.2
|111.6
|130.9
|130.9
|127.5
|126.6
|-
|-
| 2024-03
|2024-03
|118.8
|119.0
|114.5
|115.0
|124.0
|124.0
|110.9
|110.9
|130.6
|130.6
| 133.4
|133.4
|-
|-
|2024-02
|2024-02
|117.4
| 117.4
|112.5
|112.5
|120.7
| 120.7
|113.8
|113.8
|120.9
|120.9
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! rowspan="2" |Date
! rowspan="2" |Date
Average Prices
Average Prices
! colspan="3" |WTI<ref name=":52">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO</ref>
! colspan="3" |WTI<ref name=":5">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO</ref>
! colspan="3" |US Regular All Formulations Gas Price<ref name=":62">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW</ref>
! colspan="3" |US Regular All Formulations Gas Price<ref name=":6">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW</ref>
! colspan="3" |Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price<ref name=":72">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP</ref>
! colspan="3" |Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price<ref name=":7">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP</ref>
|-
|-
!Dollars per Barrel NSA
!Dollars per Barrel NSA
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!M/M
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-05-01
|80.12
| -6.12
|11.94
|3.60
| -0.23
|1.36
|2.12
|32.60
| -1.23
|-
|-
|2024-04-01
|2024-04-01
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|0.23
|0.23
|1.60
|1.60
|7.11
| 7.11
| -26.08
| -26.08
|-
|-
|2024-03-01
|2024-03-01
|81.28
| 81.28
|5.22
|5.22
|10.92
|10.92
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|1.49
|1.49
| -13.27
| -13.27
| -35.25
| -35.25
|-
|-
|2024-02-01
|2024-02-01
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Past Developments: [[Automotive Industry:United States#Prices|Automotive Industry:United States]]
Past Developments: [[Automotive Industry:United States#Prices|Automotive Industry:United States]]


==== April 2024 ====
==== Used ====


=====Used=====
* The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 197.3, a decline of 12.1% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index reduced the impact on the month, resulting in values that declined 0.6% month over month. The non-adjusted price in May decreased by 1.2% compared to April, moving the unadjusted average price down 11.4% year over year.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/may-2024-muvvi/</ref>
* In May, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values saw weekly decreases that were slightly above long-term average declines, though the first half of the month was better while the back half was weaker. Over the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index decreased an aggregate of 2.0%, including a decline of 0.7% in the last week of the month, which was the week of the Memorial Day holiday. Those same five weeks delivered an average decrease of 1.5% between 2014 and 2019, illustrating that depreciation trends are currently tracking higher than long-term averages for the year.
* Over the month of May, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 98.8%, meaning market prices stayed below MMR values.
* The average retail listing price for a used vehicle was unchanged over the last four weeks.   


* The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 198.4, a decline of 14.0% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index magnified the results for the month, resulting in a 2.3% month-over-month decrease. <ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/april-2024-muvvi/</ref>
==== New ====
* In April, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values saw weekly decreases that were slightly above long-term averages during each week of the month. Over the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index decreased an aggregate of 1.6%, including a decline of 0.5% in the last week of the month.
* Over the month of April, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 98.3%, meaning market prices fell below MMR values and declined against March as well, which was 99.4%
* The average daily sales conversion rate dropped to 59.6%, showing that demand declined relative to March, which is seasonally normal for this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 60.4% in April during the last three years.
* The average retail listing price for a used vehicle was up 2% over the last four weeks.   


===== New=====
* Last month, according to estimates by Kelley Blue Book, the average transaction price (ATP) for a new vehicle in the U.S. was $48,389, statistically unchanged from the downwardly revised price of $48,368 in April. The new-vehicle ATP in May was lower year over year by 0.9%, approximately $442.
 
* Higher incentives helped make new vehicles more affordable in May. The average new-vehicle incentive package – discounts and rebates included – last month was 6.7% of the average transaction price, according to Kelley Blue Book estimates, an increase from April and the highest level since May 2021. Incentives in May were approximately $3,200, notably higher than one year ago when discounts were measured at 4.0% of ATP.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/may-2024-atp-report/</ref>
* Downward slide in new-vehicle prices through the first quarter of 2024 reversed course in April, with average transaction prices (ATPs) increasing by 2.2% to $48,510, the highest prices since December 2023. Year over year, new-vehicle transaction prices were lower by 0.5%.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/april-2024-atp-report/</ref>
* The average incentive package in April was 6.3% of the average transaction price, according to Kelley Blue Book estimates, down from 6.6% in the prior month. The incentive decline in April was the first decrease since October 2023
* Luxury transaction prices increased 2.4% from the prior month and incentives were notably lower, at 6.0% of ATP, down from 7.4% of ATP in March. Still, luxury brand prices in April were lower by 2.1% year over year, indicating that price pressure remains front and center
* Prices of non-luxury vehicles were higher month over month in April by 2.1% and were mostly flat year over year, down by only 0.2%.
* Electric vehicle transaction prices in April were essentially flat versus March – up roughly 0.1% – at $55,252, an increase of only $75 from the prior month. Year over year, the average transaction price for an EV was down 8.5%, thanks in part to price pressure on EVs driven by slowing sales, healthy inventory, and more competition. Electric vehicle incentive packages remain well above the industry average, in many cases more than 15-to-20% of ATP.


=== 8. Import Prices ===
=== 8. Import Prices ===
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!
!
!
!
|-
|2024-04-01
|141.80
|1.30
|0.93
| 7.07
|2.44
|1.07
|-
|-
|2024-03-01
|2024-03-01
|140.40
|140.50
|0.60
|0.80
|0.57
|6.21
|  -0.71
|0.43
|0.43
|5.91
| -0.85
|0.36
|-
|-
|2024-02-01
|2024-02-01
|139.80
|139.70
|0.40
|0.30
|0.29
|0.22
|1.15
|0.86
| -0.71
| -0.85
| -0.85
| -0.92
|-
|-
|2024-01-01
|2024-01-01
|139.40
| 139.40
|1.00
|1.00
|0.72
| 0.72
| -1.98
| -1.98
|0.00
|0.00
| -1.34
| -1.34
|-
|-
|2023-12-01
| 2023-12-01
|138.40
|138.40
| -1.00
| -1.00
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| -7.17
| -7.17
| -1.43
| -1.43
| -2.40
| -2.40
|}
|}
=== 9. PMIs Price Index ===
=== 9. PMIs Price Index ===
Past developments: [[Purchasing Managers Index#Developments|ISM Prices Paid]]
Past developments: [[Purchasing Managers Index#Developments|ISM Prices Paid]]
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|58.9
|58.9
|}
|}
=== 10. Small Business Prices ===


== CPI During Recession ==
== CPI During Recession ==
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