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Consumer Price Index (view source)

Revision as of 16:39, 10 July 2024

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|'''Market Reaction'''
|'''Market Reaction'''
|'''Full Release'''
|'''Full Release'''
|-
|June 2024
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|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 April|May 2024]]
|[[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 April|May 2024]]
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!Release  Date<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003</ref>
!Release  Date<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES0500000003</ref>
!Level
!Level
! M/M
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Y/Y
!M/M Forecast
!M/M Forecast
!Y/Y Forecast
! Y/Y Forecast
|-
|2024-06-01
|35.00
|0.29
|3.86
|0.3%
|3.9%
|-
|-
|2024-05-01
|2024-05-01
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|-
|-
|2024-04-01
|2024-04-01
| 34.77
|34.77
|0.23
|0.23
|3.98
|3.98
|0.3%
|0.3%
|4%
|4%
|-
|2024-03-01
|34.69
|0.38
|4.14
|0.3%
|4.1%
|-
|2024-02-01
|34.56
|0.14
|4.25
| 0.2%
|4.4%
|}
|}
===2. Supply Chains===
===2. Supply Chains===
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!Month<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive</ref>
!Month<ref>https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive</ref>
!Index
!Index
|-
|30-Jun-2024
| -0.03
|-
|-
|31-May-2024
|31-May-2024
| -0.48
| -0.50
|-
|-
|30-Apr-2024
|30-Apr-2024
| -0.92
| -0.72
|-
|31-Mar-2024
| -0.32
|-
|29-Feb-2024
| -0.17
|}
|}
===3. PPI===
===3. PPI===
Past Developments: [[Producer Price Index]]
Past Developments: [[Producer Price Index]]


* Producer price index rose 0.5% in April, higher than 0.3% estimate and -0.1% in March (revised down from 0.2%).
* Producer price index fell 0.2% in May versus growth of 0.5% in April and against expectations for a 0.1% increase.
* Core PPI increased by 0.5%, also exceeding 0.2% estimate.
* On a yearly basis, PPI was up 2.2%, lower-than 2.5% estimate and growth of 2.3% in the previous month (revised up from 2.2%).
* On a yearly basis, PPI rose 2.2% in-line with the estimate but above 1.8% in March (revised down from 2.1%).
* Core PPI was flat during the month (April:+0.5%) and up 2.3% on a yearly basis, both coming below expectations for a 0.3% and 2.5% increase.
* Core PPI increased by 2.4% on a yearly basis, in-line with the estimate but higher than 2.1% in March (revised down from 2.4%).
* The decline in PPI is mainly attributed to the 0.8% drop in the prices for final demand goods.
* Service inflation accounted for about three-quarters of the headline gain, rising by 0.6% in April-the biggest monthly gain since July 2023.
* Around 60% decline in the price for final demand goods is attributed to a 7.1% drop in the prices for gasoline (April:+5%).
* Energy index rose 2% in April after declining by 1.3% in March.
* S&P 500 futures were up 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.7% while Dow Jones futures were down 0.2% following the report
 
===4. Housing Market===
===4. Housing Market===
Past Developments: [[Housing Market: US#Price Developments|Housing Market: US]]
Past Developments: [[Housing Market: US#Price Developments|Housing Market: US]]
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|-
|-
!Date
!Date
!Index
! Index
!M/M
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Y/Y
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!M/M
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-04-01
|320.42
|1.17
|6.29
|329.78
|1.36
|7.20
|346.89
|1.38
|8.01
|-
|-
|2024-03-01
|2024-03-01
|316.65
|316.71
|1.28
|1.30
|6.49
|6.52
|325.09
|325.35
|1.57
|1.56
|7.38
|7.47
|341.75
| 342.16
|1.65
|1.63
|8.17
|8.29
|-
|-
|2024-02-01
|2024-02-01
|312.63
|312.63
|0.68
|0.63
| 6.53
|6.54
|320.05
|320.36
|0.90
|0.92
|7.33
|7.43
|336.21
|336.68
|0.97
|1.00
|8.10
|8.25
|-
|-
|2024-01-01
|2024-01-01
|310.52
|310.68
| -0.08
| -0.05
| 6.05
|6.11
|317.18
|317.44
| -0.13
| -0.09
|6.63
|6.72
|332.97
|333.35
| -0.06
| -0.01
|7.44
|7.56
|-
|-
|2023-12-01
|2023-12-01
|310.77
|310.84
| -0.38
| -0.37
|5.58
|5.61
|317.61
|317.74
| -0.29
| -0.27
|6.22
|6.26
|333.18
|333.37
| -0.19
| -0.16
|7.08
|7.14
|-
|2023-11-01
|311.97
| -0.26
|5.09
|318.53
| -0.23
|5.50
|333.83
| -0.09
| 6.41
|}
|}
==== Rents ====
==== Rents ====
Rent prices ticked up for the fourth straight month, but rent growth over the course of 2024 as a whole remains modest, signaling ongoing sluggishness in the market. The national median rent increased by 0.5% in May and now stands at $1,404
The national median rent increased by 0.4% in June and now stands at $1,411, but the pace of growth slowed slightly this month. This is typically the time of year when rent growth is accelerating amid the busy moving season, so sluggish growth this month indicates that the market is headed for another slow summer.<ref name=":0">https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data?utm_source=twitter.com</ref>
*Rents are up 0.5% month-over-month, down 0.8% year-over-year
 
*Vacancy index sits at 6.7 percent, the highest reading since August 2020. And there’s good reason to expect that it could rise even further during the remainder of the year. Despite a recent slowdown in new permits being issued and new construction projects breaking ground, the number of multifamily units under construction remains near record levels.
* Rents are up 0.4% month-over-month, down 0.7% year-over-year
*Rents up month-over-month in 80 of 100 largest cities, up year-over-year in 43
* As of June, our vacancy index sits at 6.7 percent, the highest reading since August 2020.
* As nationwide rent growth was positive in June, so too was local rent growth in the majority of large cities across the county. 80 of the nation’s largest 100 cities saw prices rise month-over-month.
 
=== 5. Food Prices ===
=== 5. Food Prices ===
Past Developments: [[Food Market]]
Past Developments: [[Food Market]]
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CPI food at home prices are highly directionally correlated to on a 6-month lagged basis.
CPI food at home prices are highly directionally correlated to on a 6-month lagged basis.


The '''FAO Food Price Index'''* (FFPI) stood at 120.4 points in May 2024, up 1.1 points (0.9 percent) from its revised April level, as increases in the price indices for cereals and dairy products slightly more than offset decreases in those for sugar and vegetable oils, while the meat price index was almost unchanged. Although it registered a third consecutive monthly uptick in May, the FFPI remained down 3.4 percent from its corresponding value one year ago and 24.9 percent below the peak of 160.2 points reached in March 2022.<ref name=":05">https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>
The '''FAO Food Price Index'''* (FFPI) stood at 120.6 points in June 2024, unchanged from its revised figure for May, as increases in the price indices for vegetable oil, sugar and dairy products balanced out a decrease in the price index for cereals, while the meat index was almost unchanged. Despite this firming after three consecutive monthly upticks, the FFPI remained 2.1 percent lower than its corresponding value one year ago and 24.8 percent below its peak of 160.3 points reached in March 2022.
{| class="wikitable"
{| class="wikitable"
!Date
!Date<ref name=":02">https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/</ref>
!Food Price Index
!Food Price Index
!Meat
!Meat
!Dairy
!Dairy
!Cereals
!Cereals
!Oils
! Oils
!Sugar
!Sugar
|-
|2024-06
|120.6
|116.9
|127.8
|115.2
|131.8
|119.4
|-
|-
|2024-05
|2024-05
|120.4
|120.6
|116.6
|117.0
|126.0
|126.3
|118.7
|118.7
|127.8
|127.8
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|2024-04
|2024-04
|119.3
|119.3
|116.8
| 116.7
|123.8
|123.8
|111.6
|111.6
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|-
|-
|2024-02
|2024-02
| 117.4
|117.4
|112.5
|112.5
| 120.7
|120.7
|113.8
|113.8
|120.9
|120.9
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! rowspan="2" |Date
! rowspan="2" |Date
Average Prices
Average Prices
! colspan="3" |WTI<ref name=":5">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO</ref>
! colspan="3" |WTI<ref name=":52">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO</ref>
! colspan="3" |US Regular All Formulations Gas Price<ref name=":6">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW</ref>
! colspan="3" |US Regular All Formulations Gas Price<ref name=":62">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASREGW</ref>
! colspan="3" |Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price<ref name=":7">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP</ref>
! colspan="3" |Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price<ref name=":72">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DHHNGSP</ref>
|-
|-
!Dollars per Barrel NSA
!Dollars per Barrel NSA
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!M/M
!M/M
!Y/Y
!Y/Y
|-
|2024-06-01
|82.69
|3.20
|17.71
|3.46
| -4.12
| -3.26
|2.54
|19.81
|16.69
|-
|-
|2024-05-01
|2024-05-01
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|1.36
|1.36
|2.12
|2.12
|32.60
| 32.60
| -1.23
| -1.23
|-
|-
|2024-04-01
| 2024-04-01
|85.35
|85.35
|5.01
|5.01
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|0.23
|0.23
|1.60
|1.60
| 7.11
|7.11
| -26.08
| -26.08
|-
|-
|2024-03-01
|2024-03-01
| 81.28
|81.28
|5.22
|5.22
|10.92
|10.92
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|0.10
|0.10
|1.49
|1.49
| -13.27
| -13.27
| -35.25
| -35.25
|-
|-
|2024-02-01
| 2024-02-01
|77.25
|77.25
|4.18
|4.18
|0.54
|0.54
|3.21
|3.21
|4.43
| 4.43
| -5.23
| -5.23
|1.72
|1.72
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|3.18
|3.18
|25.89
|25.89
| -2.96
| -2.96
|-
|-
|2023-12-01
|2023-12-01
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===7. Car Prices===
===7. Car Prices===
Past Developments: [[Automotive Industry:United States#Prices|Automotive Industry:United States]]
Past Developments: [[Automotive Industry:United States#Prices|Automotive Industry:United States]]
 
==== Used====
==== Used ====
*Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were down in June compared to May. The seasonal adjustment to the index mitigated the impact on the month, resulting in values that declined 0.6% month over month for the second time in a row. The non-adjusted price in June decreased by 2.2% compared to May, moving the unadjusted average price down 10.0% year over year.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/june-2024-muvvi/</ref>
 
*Over the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index decreased an aggregate of 1.5%, including a decline of only 0.2% in the last week of the month. Those same four weeks delivered an average decrease of 0.5% between 2014 and 2019, showing that depreciation trends are currently running higher than long-term averages for the year.
* The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 197.3, a decline of 12.1% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index reduced the impact on the month, resulting in values that declined 0.6% month over month. The non-adjusted price in May decreased by 1.2% compared to April, moving the unadjusted average price down 11.4% year over year.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/may-2024-muvvi/</ref>
*Over the month of June, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 97.8%, meaning market prices stayed below MMR values again this month. Against May, valuation models in June moved down a point on MMR retention. '
* In May, Manheim Market Report (MMR) values saw weekly decreases that were slightly above long-term average declines, though the first half of the month was better while the back half was weaker. Over the last four weeks, the Three-Year-Old Index decreased an aggregate of 2.0%, including a decline of 0.7% in the last week of the month, which was the week of the Memorial Day holiday. Those same five weeks delivered an average decrease of 1.5% between 2014 and 2019, illustrating that depreciation trends are currently tracking higher than long-term averages for the year.
*The average daily sales conversion rate rose to 57.4%, a rise over the previous month and higher than is normally seen at this time of year. For comparison, the daily sales conversion rate averaged 51.4% in June over the past two years.
* Over the month of May, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 98.8%, meaning market prices stayed below MMR values.
*The average retail listing price for a used vehicle was down 1% over the last four weeks.
* The average retail listing price for a used vehicle was unchanged over the last four weeks.   
====New====
 
*The average transaction price (ATP) of a new vehicle increased to $48,644 in June (0.5% m/m), marking the highest price since December
==== New ====
 
* Last month, according to estimates by Kelley Blue Book, the average transaction price (ATP) for a new vehicle in the U.S. was $48,389, statistically unchanged from the downwardly revised price of $48,368 in April. The new-vehicle ATP in May was lower year over year by 0.9%, approximately $442.
* Higher incentives helped make new vehicles more affordable in May. The average new-vehicle incentive package – discounts and rebates included – last month was 6.7% of the average transaction price, according to Kelley Blue Book estimates, an increase from April and the highest level since May 2021. Incentives in May were approximately $3,200, notably higher than one year ago when discounts were measured at 4.0% of ATP.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/may-2024-atp-report/</ref>
 
=== 8. Import Prices ===
=== 8. Import Prices ===
Past Developments: [[Import Prices]]
Past Developments: [[Import Prices]]
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!Import Prices Y/Y
!Import Prices Y/Y
|-
|-
!Default Units Index 2000=100 NSA<ref>https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IR</ref>
!Default Units Index 2000=100 NSA
!
!
!
!
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!
!
!
!
|-
|2024-05-01
|141.20
| -0.60
| -0.42
|4.36
|2.60
|1.07
|-
|-
|2024-04-01
|2024-04-01
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|1.30
|1.30
|0.93
|0.93
| 7.07
|7.07
|2.44
|2.44
|1.07
|1.07
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|0.57
|0.57
|6.21
|6.21
| -0.71
| -0.71
|0.43
|0.43
|-
|-
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|-
|-
|2024-01-01
|2024-01-01
| 139.40
|139.40
|1.00
|1.00
| 0.72
|0.72
| -1.98
| -1.98
|0.00
|0.00
| -1.34
| -1.34
|-
|-
| 2023-12-01
|2023-12-01
|138.40
|138.40
| -1.00
| -1.00
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| -7.17
| -7.17
| -1.43
| -1.43
| -2.40
| -2.40
|}
|}
=== 9. PMIs Price Index ===
=== 9. PMIs Price Index ===
Past developments: [[Purchasing Managers Index#Developments|ISM Prices Paid]]
Past developments: [[Purchasing Managers Index#Developments|ISM Prices Paid]]
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|-
|-
!Month
!Month
!PMI Manufacturing<ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ism-manufacturing-prices-174</ref><ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-manufacturing-prices</ref>
! PMI Manufacturing<ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ism-manufacturing-prices-174</ref><ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-manufacturing-prices</ref>
!PMI Services<ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ism-non-manufacturing-prices-1049</ref><ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-non-manufacturing-prices</ref>
!PMI Services<ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ism-non-manufacturing-prices-1049</ref><ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-non-manufacturing-prices</ref>
|-
|Jun-24
|52.1
|56.3
|-
|May-24
|57
|58.1
|-
|-
|Apr-24
|Apr-24
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|45.2
|45.2
|57.4
|57.4
|-
| Nov-23
|49.9
| 58.3
|-
|Oct-23
|45.1
|58.6
|-
|Sep-23
|43.8
|58.9
|}
|}
== CPI During Recession ==
== CPI During Recession ==
[[File:FjjZBKRWIAITa5Y.png|thumb|https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1601366332527693824/photo/1|alt=|center|552x552px]]
[[File:FjjZBKRWIAITa5Y.png|thumb|https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1601366332527693824/photo/1|alt=|center|552x552px]]
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