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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 August: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 August (view source)
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== CPI expectations == | == CPI expectations == | ||
''Range:'' | |||
*CPI: 2.5% - 2.7% | |||
*Core CPI: 3.1% - 3.3% | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|'''Escenario''' | |||
|'''Market reaction''' | |||
|'''Probability by Magaly''' | |||
|- | |||
|CPI below 2.5% | |||
|1.5%+ rally | |||
|5% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI at 2.5% | |||
|0.75% Rally | |||
|30% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI in line with expectations | |||
|Flat | |||
|50% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI at 2.7% | |||
|0.75% drop | |||
|10% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI above 2.7% | |||
|1% drop | |||
|5% | |||
|} | |||
===Consensus forecast=== | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!Variable | |||
!Forecast | |||
!Previous | |||
|- | |||
|Core CPI (MoM) | |||
|0.2% | |||
|0.2% | |||
|- | |||
|Core CPI (YoY) | |||
|3.2% | |||
|3.2% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI (MoM) | |||
|0.2% | |||
|0.2% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI (YoY) | |||
|2.6% | |||
|2.9% | |||
|} | |||
===FED Cleveland Forecast=== | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!<ref>https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting</ref> | |||
! colspan="2" |YoY Change | |||
! colspan="2" |MoM Change | |||
|- | |||
!Month | |||
!CPI | |||
!Core CPI | |||
!CPI | |||
!Core CPI | |||
|- | |||
|August 2024 | |||
|2.56 | |||
|3.21 | |||
|0.2 | |||
|0.26 | |||
|- | |||
|September 2024 | |||
|2.35 | |||
|3.12 | |||
|0.18 | |||
|0.27 | |||
|} | |||
== References == | == References == | ||