Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 August
Return to: Consumer Price Index | Historical Releases | Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 July
Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_09112024.htm
Publishing date: September 11, 2024.
Results August 2024 CPI
| Variable | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core CPI (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| CPI (MoM) | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% |
- Core CPI rose 0.3% in August, exceeding expectations for a 0.2% growth.
- Headline CPI rose 0.2% on the month, in line with the forecasts.
- On a yearly basis, core CPI rose 3.2%, in-line with the estimate while headline CPI rose 2.5%, below 2.6% forecast.
- Supercore inflation rose to 0.327% in August from 0.205% in July.
- Shelter index rose 0.5% in August versus 0.4% in July.
- S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures shed 0.4% while Dow futures fell 0.6% following the report.
While there was a sight rebound in the last 3 months, the 6 month and 1 year growth rates continue downward.[1]
Persistent shelter and transportation continue to be the major contributors to Core CPI.
Shelter showed a slight rebound in August, which not ideal development
- Owners’ Equivalent rent is still the biggest issue within the shelter CPI
Transportation increased by 0.89% m/m, mostly about airfares, which rebounded 3.9% m/m after 5 months of declines.
Vehicle insurance is moderating, but still very high on a annual basis (16.5% Y/Y)
By FED CPI Category
| Index | M/M | Y/Y | Prev. M/M | Prev. Y/Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Goods | -0.27% | -1.65% | -0.52% | 1.69% |
| Core Services | 0.41% | 4.93% | 0.31% | 4.90% |
| Shelter | 0.52% | 5.21% | 0.38% | 5.03% |
| Services less shelter "super-core" | 0.327% | 4.453% | 0.205% | 4.468% |
CPI expectations
Some developments during the month: (more details: Consumer Price Index)
The market is currently pricing 25bps rate cuts in september 2024, with 125bps rate cuts for all 2024, and 250bps rate cuts as of september 2025.
Range:
- CPI: 2.5% - 2.7%
- Core CPI: 3.1% - 3.3%
| Escenario | Market reaction | Probability by Magaly |
| CPI below 2.5% | 1.5%+ rally | 5% |
| CPI at 2.5% | 0.75% Rally | 30% |
| CPI in line with expectations | Flat | 50% |
| CPI at 2.7% | 0.75% drop | 10% |
| CPI above 2.7% | 1% drop | 5% |
Consensus forecast
| Variable | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Core CPI (MoM) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| CPI (MoM) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.6% | 2.9% |
FED Cleveland Forecast
| [7] | YoY Change | MoM Change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | CPI | Core CPI | CPI | Core CPI |
| August 2024 | 2.56 | 3.21 | 0.2 | 0.26 |
| September 2024 | 2.35 | 3.12 | 0.18 | 0.27 |
Individual Institutions Forecast
References
- ↑ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UzvIAz6CBS78vH1moNA-foaZA0HWOb-AG1DfvCUJDio/edit?gid=1447472164#gid=1447472164&range=AR1
- ↑ https://public.tableau.com/views/USInflation_17171686419090/CPI3MAnn?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
- ↑ https://public.tableau.com/views/USInflation_17171686419090/CPI3MAnn?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
- ↑ https://public.tableau.com/views/USInflation_17171686419090/CPI3MAnn?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
- ↑ https://public.tableau.com/views/USInflation_17171686419090/CPI3MAnn?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
- ↑ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UzvIAz6CBS78vH1moNA-foaZA0HWOb-AG1DfvCUJDio/edit?gid=1233713232#gid=1233713232
- ↑ https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting
- ↑ https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1833579556437168152