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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 October: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 October (view source)
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== CPI expectations == | |||
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) | |||
[[File:Screenshot 2024-11-12 135843.png|center|thumb|1223x1223px|<ref>https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UzvIAz6CBS78vH1moNA-foaZA0HWOb-AG1DfvCUJDio/edit?gid=1233713232#gid=1233713232&range=A1</ref>]] | |||
''Range:'' | |||
* CPI: 2.5% - 2.7% | |||
* Core CPI: 3.2% - 3.4% | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|'''Escenario''' | |||
|'''Market reaction''' | |||
|'''Probability by Magaly''' | |||
|- | |||
|CPI below 2.5% | |||
|1.5%+ rally | |||
|5% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI at 2.5% | |||
|0.75% Rally | |||
|15% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI in line with expectations | |||
|Flat | |||
|50% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI at 2.7% | |||
|0.75% drop | |||
|25% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI above 2.7% | |||
|1% drop | |||
|5% | |||
|} | |||
=== Consensus forecast === | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!Variable | |||
!Forecast | |||
!Previous | |||
|- | |||
|Core CPI (MoM) | |||
|0.3% | |||
|0.3% | |||
|- | |||
|Core CPI (YoY) | |||
|3.3% | |||
|3.3% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI (MoM) | |||
|0.2% | |||
|0.2% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI (YoY) | |||
|2.6% | |||
|2.4% | |||
|} | |||
=== FED Cleveland Forecast === | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!<ref>https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting</ref> | |||
! colspan="2" |YoY Change | |||
! colspan="2" |MoM Change | |||
|- | |||
!Month | |||
!CPI | |||
!Core CPI | |||
!CPI | |||
!Core CPI | |||
|- | |||
|October 2024 | |||
|2.56 | |||
|3.34 | |||
|0.18 | |||
|0.27 | |||
|- | |||
|November 2024 | |||
|2.67 | |||
|3.31 | |||
|0.28 | |||
|0.27 | |||
|} | |||
== References == | |||
# [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 September#cite%20ref-1|↑]] <nowiki>https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting</nowiki> | |||