Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 October
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Return to: Consumer Price Index | Historical Releases | Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 September
Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_11132024.htm
Publishing date: November 13, 2024.
CPI Results
| Variable | Actuals | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core CPI (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| CPI (MoM) | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% |
- Headline CPI and core CPI rose 0.2% and 0.3% in October respectively, both in line with estimates.
- On a yearly basis, headline CPI was up 2.6% while core CPI increased 3.3%, both in line with the estimates.
- Super core inflation rose 0.3% down from 0.4% in September, driven by transportation services and medical care services.
Shelter is still responsible for more than half of the CPI increases. While there’s hope that shelter inflationary pressures will eventually ease, the decline has been very gradual and not linear.
- Transportation is still a problem at 8.17% y/y, but has improved slightly during the year.
- Medical services seeing renewed inflationary pressures at 3.83 y/y currently, it was at 0.62% y/y back in January.
Shelter, Transportation and medical services are also the only components that inflation has not seen significant improvement since 2022.
CPI expectations
Some developments during the month: (more details: Consumer Price Index)
Range:
- CPI: 2.5% - 2.7%
- Core CPI: 3.2% - 3.4%
| Escenario | Market reaction | Probability by Magaly |
| CPI below 2.5% | 1.5%+ rally | 5% |
| CPI at 2.5% | 0.75% Rally | 15% |
| CPI in line with expectations | Flat | 50% |
| CPI at 2.7% | 0.75% drop | 25% |
| CPI above 2.7% | 1% drop | 5% |
Consensus forecast
| Variable | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Core CPI (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| CPI (MoM) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.6% | 2.4% |
FED Cleveland Forecast
| [5] | YoY Change | MoM Change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | CPI | Core CPI | CPI | Core CPI |
| October 2024 | 2.56 | 3.34 | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| November 2024 | 2.67 | 3.31 | 0.28 | 0.27 |
References
- ↑ https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting
- ↑ https://public.tableau.com/views/USInflation_17171686419090/CPIYY?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
- ↑ https://public.tableau.com/views/USInflation_17171686419090/Shelter6MAnn?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
- ↑ https://public.tableau.com/views/USInflation_17171686419090/CPI3MMovingAverage?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
- ↑ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UzvIAz6CBS78vH1moNA-foaZA0HWOb-AG1DfvCUJDio/edit?gid=1233713232#gid=1233713232&range=A1
- ↑ https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting