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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 January: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 January (view source)
Revision as of 20:24, 13 February 2023
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''Return to: [[Consumer Price Index]] | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases|Historical Releases]]'' | ''Return to: [[Consumer Price Index]] | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases|Historical Releases]]'' | ||
== Summary == | == Summary == | ||
== CPI expectations == | |||
January 2023 inflation forecasts are expecting a continuing decline in inflation to 6.2% Y/Y, this is mostly in line short-term drivers' trends. However, there are 2 points to remain cautious for February 14 release: | |||
* There will be a change in methodology, which could create a big miss tomorrow if forecast did not correctly account it: "Starting with January 2023 data, the BLS plans to update weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data, using consumer expenditure data from 2021. This reflects a change from prior practice of updating weights biennially using two years of expenditure data."<ref>https://www.bls.gov/cpi/</ref> | * There will be a change in methodology, which could create a big miss tomorrow if forecast did not correctly account it: "Starting with January 2023 data, the BLS plans to update weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data, using consumer expenditure data from 2021. This reflects a change from prior practice of updating weights biennially using two years of expenditure data."<ref>https://www.bls.gov/cpi/</ref> | ||
* January 2023 saw a small acceleration in used car prices, energy/gasoline, and stabilization in housing, this could offset some of the disinflationary trends in goods and the small decline in wages. | * January 2023 saw a small acceleration in used car prices, energy/gasoline, and stabilization in housing, this could offset some of the disinflationary trends in goods and the small decline in wages. | ||
Before CPI, market is pricing a 90% probability of a 0.25 bps rate hike in the March meeting. A terminal rate of 5.2%, and rate cuts starting after October. <ref>https://twitter.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1625133039582908416/photo/1</ref> | Before CPI, market is pricing a 90% probability of a 0.25 bps rate hike in the March meeting. A terminal rate of 5.2%, and rate cuts starting after October. <ref>https://twitter.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1625133039582908416/photo/1</ref> | ||
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if >6.5%: ≥ 5% drop | if >6.5%: ≥ 5% drop | ||
=== Consensus forecast <ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/</ref> === | === Consensus forecast <ref>https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/</ref> === | ||