Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 January: Difference between revisions

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 January (view source)

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 == CPI expectations ==
-January 2023 inflation forecasts are expecting a continuing decline in inflation to 6.2% Y/Y, this is mostly in line short-term drivers' trends. However, there are 2 points to remain cautious for February 14 release:
+January 2023 inflation forecasts are expecting a continuing decline in inflation to 6.2% Y/Y, this is mostly in line with the short-term drivers' trends. However, there are 2 points to remain cautious for February 14 release:
 * There will be a change in methodology, which could create a big miss tomorrow if forecast did not correctly account it: "Starting with January 2023 data, the BLS plans to update weights annually for the Consumer Price Index based on a single calendar year of data, using consumer expenditure data from 2021. This reflects a change from prior practice of updating weights biennially using two years of expenditure data."<ref>https://www.bls.gov/cpi/</ref>
 * January 2023 saw a small acceleration in used car prices, energy/gasoline, and stabilization in housing, this could offset some of the disinflationary trends in goods and the small decline in wages.