3,882
edits
Economic Outlook: Difference between revisions
→Conclusion:
| Line 124: | Line 124: | ||
In conclusion, even though at a historically low level, continuing jobless claims had already increased 30% since its lowest point in March 2021. In recent weeks the initial claims have stabilized and even decreased again, but continuing claims has stayed flat. | In conclusion, even though at a historically low level, continuing jobless claims had already increased 30% since its lowest point in March 2021. In recent weeks the initial claims have stabilized and even decreased again, but continuing claims has stayed flat. | ||
=== | === Assesment: === | ||
Some of the most prominent leading indicators used in this analysis show signs of significant deterioration and a high probability that the economy could enter a recession sometime after Q2/Q3 2023. Given China's reopening and the demand this will bring to the global economy, since China is the second largest economy in the world, it could slow the rate of contraction the economy is already experiencing, acting as a positive shock in the short term. | Some of the most prominent leading indicators used in this analysis show signs of significant deterioration and a high probability that the economy could enter a recession sometime after Q2/Q3 2023. Given China's reopening and the demand this will bring to the global economy, since China is the second largest economy in the world, it could slow the rate of contraction the economy is already experiencing, acting as a positive shock in the short term. | ||
Also the recent rebound on financial conditions and some of the economic numbers could create some tailwind in growth in the very short term, and a delayed of weakness, however, in my opinion, | Also the recent rebound on financial conditions and some of the economic numbers could create some tailwind in growth in the very short term, and a delayed of weakness, however, in my opinion, this don't change the outlook of the US falling in a recession later this year or next year. | ||
Some analysts oppose to the idea of a recession due to the fact that the labor market is still strong, but is important to take into account that the labor market is one of the most lagging economic indicators. While unemployment is an important recession indicator, unemployment usually peaks long after the recession has begun and can last well into recovery. That's because the NBER (and others) say a recession is over when the economic contraction hits bottom and starts to rebound, not when the recovery is complete. As an example, in 2008, the recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, according to NBER. Yet in April 2008, five months into the recession, the U.S. unemployment rate was just 5%, up only slightly from 4.7% six months earlier. Unemployment continued to rise to hit 10% by October 2009, four months after the official end of the recession and seven months after the stock market hit bottom.<ref>https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/032515/why-does-unemployment-tend-rise-during-recession.asp#citation-21</ref> | Some analysts oppose to the idea of a recession due to the fact that the labor market is still strong, but is important to take into account that the labor market is one of the most lagging economic indicators. While unemployment is an important recession indicator, unemployment usually peaks long after the recession has begun and can last well into recovery. That's because the NBER (and others) say a recession is over when the economic contraction hits bottom and starts to rebound, not when the recovery is complete. As an example, in 2008, the recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, according to NBER. Yet in April 2008, five months into the recession, the U.S. unemployment rate was just 5%, up only slightly from 4.7% six months earlier. Unemployment continued to rise to hit 10% by October 2009, four months after the official end of the recession and seven months after the stock market hit bottom.<ref>https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1622930506533818368</ref><ref>https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/032515/why-does-unemployment-tend-rise-during-recession.asp#citation-21</ref> | ||
Is also important to mention that even though leading indicators can provide a picture of the direction we can expect the economy to take in the coming months, is not possible to derive from them the magnitude of the possible decline. At this moment, we could just consider that given that some of the numbers analyzed are in line with numbers seen in past recessions, historically it could mean that the probability of a serious contraction is higher than just a mild recession, but most importantly, given the FED narrative and actions to continue tightening while this economic contraction unfolds., which could lead them to an overtighten scenario. | Is also important to mention that even though leading indicators can provide a picture of the direction we can expect the economy to take in the coming months, is not possible to derive from them the magnitude of the possible decline. At this moment, we could just consider that given that some of the numbers analyzed are in line with numbers seen in past recessions, historically it could mean that the probability of a serious contraction is higher than just a mild recession, but most importantly, given the FED narrative and actions to continue tightening while this economic contraction unfolds., which could lead them to an overtighten scenario. | ||