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Economic Outlook: Difference between revisions
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In conclusion, even though at a historically low level, continuing jobless claims had already increased 30% since its lowest point in March 2021. In recent weeks the initial claims have stabilized and even decreased again, but continuing claims has stayed flat. | In conclusion, even though at a historically low level, continuing jobless claims had already increased 30% since its lowest point in March 2021. In recent weeks the initial claims have stabilized and even decreased again, but continuing claims has stayed flat. | ||
=== | === Assessment: === | ||
Some of the most prominent leading indicators used in this analysis show signs of significant deterioration and a high probability that the economy could enter a recession sometime after Q2/Q3 2023. Given China's reopening and the demand this will bring to the global economy, since China is the second largest economy in the world, it could slow the rate of contraction the economy is already experiencing, acting as a positive shock in the short term. | Some of the most prominent leading indicators used in this analysis show signs of significant deterioration and a high probability that the economy could enter a recession sometime after Q2/Q3 2023. Given China's reopening and the demand this will bring to the global economy, since China is the second largest economy in the world, it could slow the rate of contraction the economy is already experiencing, acting as a positive shock in the short term. | ||