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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 April: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 April (view source)
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== CPI expectations == | == CPI expectations == | ||
April 2023 CPI is expected to remain flat, with core CPI numbers still above headline numbers. This could be due to the increased in energy and wages during april, and the housing and cars data lags. | |||
Inflation numbers will continue to be high enough for the FED plan to keep rates high for longer, especially since their focus is on the core numbers. | |||
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) | |||
* Wages increased 0.5% again during april to 4.4% Y/Y compare to 4.2% in March | |||
* Energy prices had price increases during april. This could be reflected in higher energy CPI numbers. | |||
* Food prices had an increase in april (0.6 percent), but is still down 19.7% Y/Y. | |||
* Supply chain has normalized, and continue to fall below the index’s historical average in april. | |||
* Housing prices increased 0.2% m/m in april, but it is now only 0.4% up y/y | |||
* Used Car decreased 3% m/m and new cars remained flat. However April CPI data could start reflecting the increases seeing in Q1 2023 in used cars. | |||
The markets are now pricing a pause in June meeting, with 80% probability. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html</ref> | |||
''Range:'' | |||
* CPI: 4.9% - 5.1% | |||
* Core CPI: 5.4% - 5.6% | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|'''Escenario''' | |||
|'''Market reaction''' | |||
|'''Probability by Magaly''' | |||
|- | |||
|If < 4.9% | |||
|3% rally | |||
|5% | |||
|- | |||
|Between 4.9% - 5% | |||
|1-2% Rally | |||
|35% | |||
|- | |||
|In line with expectations 5% | |||
|Flat | |||
|40% | |||
|- | |||
|Between 5% - 5.1% | |||
|1-2% drop | |||
|15% | |||
|- | |||
|if > 5.1% | |||
|4% drop | |||
|5% | |||
|} | |||
=== Consensus forecast === | === Consensus forecast === | ||