Consumer Price Index: Difference between revisions

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 ==Near-term inflation drivers==
 Near-term inflation trends are still in line with a continued decline in inflation in the coming months.
-The Housing CPI lags, and the fact that wages are still above average could keep inflation above the 2% target for a while.
-A significant risk to the upside in short term will be China's reopening, especially on energy and other commodity prices. However, until now the reopening hasn't had a significant effect on prices.
-Inflation could benefit from the decrease in lending from financial institutions, slowing demand and spending.
 ===1. Wages===
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 ===6. Energy===
 Past Developments: [https://www.investmentwiki.org/wiki/Energy_Industry#Price_Developments Energy Industry]
-*Oil prices were mainly flat during march at around $75. The prices had a high of $83 at mid march. <ref>https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM</ref>
+*Oil prices were very volatile during may, however it ended the month significantly lower than last month at about $68.  <ref>https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CL1:COM</ref>
-*Gasoline prices went from 3.533 to 3.765. An increase of 6%.<ref name=":1">https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=w</ref>
+*Gasoline prices went from 3.711 to 3.684. Small decline of almost 1%.<ref name=":13">https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=w</ref>
-*Natural Gas prices went from 2.22 to 2.32. An 4.5% increase.<ref>https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM</ref>
+*Natural Gas prices went from 2.32 to 2.26. Relatively flat during the month.<ref>https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM</ref>
-*The future markets continue to expect lower oil prices, now at $69.43 at year end. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html</ref>
+*The future markets continue to expect lower oil prices, now at $66.95 at year end. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html</ref>
 [[File:FjjZBKRWIAITa5Y.png|thumb|https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1601366332527693824/photo/1]]
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 Past Developments: [[Automotive Industry:United States#Prices|Automotive Industry:United States]]
-Values in April also continue to be lower year over year. We’ve experienced eight straight months of year-over-year declines, averaging 8.3%, and it’s likely not over yet.
+==== Used ====
+* Wholesale used-vehicle prices decreased 2.7% in May from April. <ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/may-2023-muvvi/</ref>
+* The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 224.5, down 7.6% from a year ago.
+* In May, daily MMR Retention, which is the average difference in price relative to the current MMR, averaged 98.7%, meaning market prices were below MMR values
+* Compared to last month, vans actually increased by 0.2%, while compact and midsize cars declined by 2.4% each. SUVs were flat versus April, with luxury and pickups down 3.0% and 4.3%, respectively.
+==== New ====
-* Wholesale used-vehicle prices decreased 3.0% in April from March<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/april-2023-muvvi/</ref>.
+* The average transaction price (ATP) of a new vehicle in the U.S. increased in May 2023 to $48,528, a month-over-month increase of 0.5% ($251) from an upwardly revised April reading of $48,277.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-may-2023/</ref>
-* The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index down 4.4% from a year ago.
+* New-vehicle transaction prices in May were up 3% ($1,393) compared to year-ago levels. The year-over-year increase in May of 3% was the smallest in 2023
-* The average transaction price (ATP) of a new vehicle in April was flat, with April at $48,275.
+* Auto manufacturers’ incentive spend in May rose to the highest level in the past year at 3.9% of the ATP, averaging $1,914. One year ago, average incentive spending was 2.5% of ATP.
-* The average price fell further below the average manufacturer’s suggested retail price (MSRP). The average price was up 3.7% from a year ago, while the average MSRP increased 0.2% in April from March and was up 5.9% year over year.<ref>https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/auto-market-weekly-summary-may-8/</ref>
+* In May 2023, the average price consumers paid for a new vehicle fell to $410 below MSRP, or sticker price. For comparison, a year ago, the average ATP was $637 above MSRP.
 == CPI During Recession ==