3,882
edits
Economic Outlook: Difference between revisions
m
no edit summary
(moved in article discussion to discussion page) |
mNo edit summary |
||
| Line 49: | Line 49: | ||
# Recession signal has hit in August 2022.<ref>https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-sept-2022#:~:text=The%20Conference%20Board%20Leading%20Economic,over%20the%20previous%20six%20months.</ref> | # Recession signal has hit in August 2022.<ref>https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-sept-2022#:~:text=The%20Conference%20Board%20Leading%20Economic,over%20the%20previous%20six%20months.</ref> | ||
In conclusion, based on the index criteria the recession signal was hit on August 2022, and since then the index has deteriorated further | In conclusion, based on the index criteria the recession signal was hit on August 2022, and since then the index has deteriorated further. Giving the track record of the index and the lead time of 7 months, there is a high likehood that relying on this indicator the recession risks in the US economy are amplify significant in Q2 2023 onwards. | ||
=== 4. | === 4. New orders === | ||
New orders indicators provide a measure of the value of orders received by the unit during the reference period. It is defined as the value of all legally binding contracts between a producer and a consumer for future deliveries by the producer of goods or services. | New orders indicators provide a measure of the value of orders received by the unit during the reference period. It is defined as the value of all legally binding contracts between a producer and a consumer for future deliveries by the producer of goods or services. | ||
| Line 60: | Line 60: | ||
# The ISM Manufacturing New Orders subindex in the United States decreased to 47.20 points in November from 49.20 points in October of 2022. It marks a third straight month of falling new orders.<ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-manufacturing-new-orders</ref> | # The ISM Manufacturing New Orders subindex in the United States decreased to 47.20 points in November from 49.20 points in October of 2022. It marks a third straight month of falling new orders.<ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-manufacturing-new-orders</ref> | ||
# The ISM Non Manufacturing New Orders subindex in the United States decreased to | # The ISM Non Manufacturing New Orders subindex in the United States decreased to 45.20 points in December from 56 points in November of 2022.<ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-non-manufacturing-new-orders</ref> | ||
# New orders for manufactured durable goods in November, down following three consecutive monthly increases, decreased $5.8 billion or 2.1 percent to $270.6 billion. <ref>https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf</ref> | # New orders for manufactured durable goods in November, down following three consecutive monthly increases, decreased $5.8 billion or 2.1 percent to $270.6 billion. <ref>https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf</ref> | ||
In conclusion, the current data points to weaker and contracting future output or production | In conclusion, the current data points to weaker and contracting future output or production. New orders is considered more of a short term leading indicator, so we can expect the weakness to materialize in production/labor in Q1/Q2 2023. | ||
=== 5. Jobless Claims === | === 5. Jobless Claims === | ||