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Consumer Price Index: Difference between revisions
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== Overview == | == Overview == | ||
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in October. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.1 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in November, after rising 0.3 percent in October.<ref>https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf</ref> | The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in October. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.1 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in November, after rising 0.3 percent in October.<ref>https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf</ref> | ||
=== '''Headline Inflation''' === | |||
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* Home prices have started to decline since July 2022<ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/case-shiller-home-price-index-mom</ref>, but due to the lagging shelter CPI data, this will start to be reflected in CPI until the second half of 2023. | * Home prices have started to decline since July 2022<ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/case-shiller-home-price-index-mom</ref>, but due to the lagging shelter CPI data, this will start to be reflected in CPI until the second half of 2023. | ||
=== | === 5. Energy === | ||
* Oil prices have come down significantly since the peak to around of $73, below pre war levels<ref name=":0">https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/45</ref>. However, futures market is not pricing more declines, but rather a bit higher oil prices in coming months.<ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html</ref> | * Oil prices have come down significantly since the peak to around of $73, below pre war levels<ref name=":0">https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/45</ref>. However, futures market is not pricing more declines, but rather a bit higher oil prices in coming months.<ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html</ref> | ||
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=== 6. Car Prices === | === 6. Car Prices === | ||
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose to 202.6, down 14.2% from the full month of December 2021.<ref>https://publish.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html</ref> But prices remain historically elevated. | |||
* JPM research expects prices to decline by '''2.5% to 5%''' for new cars and by '''10% to 20%''' for used cars in 2023.<ref>https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/research/when-will-car-prices-drop#:~:text=Average%20prices%20were%20up%2042.5,to%2020%25%20for%20used%20cars.</ref> | |||
== References: == | == References: == | ||