Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 July: Difference between revisions

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 July (view source)

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+''Return to: [[Consumer Price Index]] | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases|Historical Releases]]''
+Full Report:
+Publishing date: Aug 10 2023
 == CPI expectations ==
+June 2023 headline CPI is expected to continue lower, declining from 4.0% to 3.1% , comps from June 2022 continue to be very high contibuting to this big move, but after July they will start to decrease significantly.
+Core prices are expected to remain unchanged.
+Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]])
+* Wages are stil above historical averages and came higher than expected in July once again.Wage growth remains very sticky.
+* Energy prices saw a significant increase in July, this will the main reason for higher CPI headline readings in coming mothns.
+* Food price index increase 1.3% m/m during July, but  is still 11.8% lower than a year ago.
+* Supply chain continue to be below the index’s historical average in July, but rebounded a bit during July.
+* Housing prices recorded a 4th consecutive month of price increases, increasing 1.% month-over-month in May of 2023. This data could suggest that the cooling in shelter CPI could not be permanent or volatile.
+* Used Car prices continue to decrease July, but at a more modest pace (1.6% m/m). New car transaction prices also decline 0.7% m/m during July.
+The markets are now pricing a hike in July meeting, with 92% probability. There are no more hikes priced for 2023, and no cuts either.
+''Range:''
+* CPI: 3.1% - 3.5%
+* Core CPI: 4.7% - 4.9%
 === Consensus forecast ===
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+== References ==