Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 July: Difference between revisions

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 July (view source)

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 == CPI expectations ==
-June 2023 headline CPI is expected to continue lower, declining from 4.0% to 3.1% , comps from June 2022 continue to be very high contibuting to this big move, but after July they will start to decrease significantly.
+June 2023 headline CPI is expected to increase during July 2023 compare to June 2023, the main reason for this increase is due to the aignificant jump in energy prices that occured during the month, however all other components that we follow also saw an increase in prices in July, with the exception of car prices.
 Core prices are expected to remain unchanged.
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 * Food price index increase 1.3% m/m during July, but  is still 11.8% lower than a year ago.
 * Supply chain continue to be below the index’s historical average in July, but rebounded a bit during July.
-* Housing prices recorded a 4th consecutive month of price increases, increasing 1.% month-over-month in May of 2023. This data could suggest that the cooling in shelter CPI could not be permanent or volatile.
+* Housing prices recorded a 4th consecutive month of price increases, increasing 1.2% month-over-month in May of 2023. This data could suggest that the cooling in shelter CPI could not be permanent or volatile.
 * Used Car prices continue to decrease July, but at a more modest pace (1.6% m/m). New car transaction prices also decline 0.7% m/m during July.
-The markets are now pricing a hike in July meeting, with 92% probability. There are no more hikes priced for 2023, and no cuts either.
+The markets are pricing a pause in rates for the remaining of the year.
 ''Range:''