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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 August: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 August (view source)
Revision as of 16:42, 12 September 2023
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Publishing date: September 13, 2023 | Publishing date: September 13, 2023 | ||
== CPI expectations == | == CPI expectations == | ||
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) | |||
* Wages are stil above historical averages and continue to increase in August, however at a slower pace. | |||
* Energy prices continue to increase in august, it will be specially important the increase in gasoline price due to its weigth in CPI index. | |||
* Food price index decline 2.1% m/m during august, -24% from the peak. | |||
* Supply chain continue to be below the index’s historical average in August, but remain unchanged from previous month. | |||
* Housing prices recorded a 5th consecutive month of price increases, increasing 0.9% month-over-month in June of 2023 (0% y/y). Rents are down 0.1% month-over-month, 1.2% year-over-year | |||
* Used Car prices has a small rebound in august, with a 0.2m/m increase. New cars ATP saw the same trend increasing 0.6%m/m. | |||
The markets are pricing a pause in rates for the remaining of the year. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html</ref> | |||
''Range:'' | |||
* CPI: 3.5% - 3.8% | |||
* Core CPI: 4.2% - 4.5% | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|'''Escenario''' | |||
|'''Market reaction''' | |||
|'''Probability by Magaly''' | |||
|- | |||
|CPI below 3.1% | |||
|4%+ rally | |||
|5% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI between 3.1 - 3.2% | |||
|2-3% Rally | |||
|15% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI in line with expectations | |||
|Flat | |||
|45% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI between 3.4% - 3.5% | |||
|1-2% drop | |||
|30% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI above 3.5% | |||
|3% drop | |||
|5% | |||
|} | |||
=== Consensus forecast === | === Consensus forecast === | ||
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|0.37 | |0.37 | ||
|} | |} | ||
=== Individual Forecasts === | |||
[[File:Screenshot 2023-09-12 091935.png|center|thumb|563x563px|https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1701588974811468284]] | |||
== References == | == References == | ||