Federal Reserve:Meetings/2023 September 20: Difference between revisions

Federal Reserve:Meetings/2023 September 20 (view source)

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 == Market Expectations ==
 Markets are expecting a rate pause in september with a 99% probability, expections for a pause also in november are 71% and 60% in december. <ref>https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html</ref>
+== Commentary ==
+=== Roger Ferguson ===
+<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9DUBMPUmNs</ref>
+* They will leave the door open for 1 more rate hike
+* They want to be careful to not stop to early, and continue to be data dependent
+* There is still a possibility of a recession, and more certaintly of slower growth
+=== Richard Fisher ===
+<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRvlG7ufHXs</ref>
+* There is a huge fiscal deficit currently, which is inflationary and stimulative to the economy.
+* Still with all the irresponsable fiscal spending, and interest payment going up, money is still coming to the US. The dollar is still relatively strong.
+* The economy still playing catch up to the fact wages are still behind inflation.
+=== HPS Investment Partners ===
+<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJqbJxI1s8U</ref>
+* Mareket are pricing a lot of rate cuts, they dont think this is likely
+* About a 1/3 of tresuary market is going to reprice over the curse of the next year. There is a lot of supply coming, which will keep yield high.
+* There is more risk for inflation to be higher to what the FED is hoping for. This will impact margins, investment cyles and cash flows for the higher for longer scenario.
+* Defaults in high yield will be dependant on where inflation settles in.
 == References ==