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Federal Reserve:Meetings/2023 September 20: Difference between revisions
Federal Reserve:Meetings/2023 September 20 (view source)
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See: [[Federal Reserve]] | See: [[Federal Reserve]] | ||
== Summary == | |||
* FOMC maintained the target range for the fed funds rate at 5.25%-5.50% as was expected by the market. | |||
* Fed’s dot-plot indicated there is a likelihood of one more rate hike in 2023, followed by two rate cuts in 2024, two fewer than forecasted in July. | |||
* The projections for 2025 funds rate also moved up from 3.4% to 3.9% while GDP projections for 2023 moved to 2.1%, more than double the projetion given in June. | |||
* The FOMC statement noted that future monetary decisions will be informed by incoming data and that they are committed to bringing inflation down to 2%. | |||
* The stament described the economic activity as expanding at a solid pace unlike in previous statements where they described it as moderate. | |||
* Also, unlike in the past where they described they labor market as robust, they said “job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong.” | |||
=== Projections === | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
! rowspan="2" |Variable<ref>https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20230920.pdf</ref> | |||
! colspan="5" |Median | |||
|- | |||
!2023 | |||
!2024 | |||
!2025 | |||
!2026 | |||
!Longer run | |||
|- | |||
|Change in real GDP | |||
|2.1 | |||
|1.5 | |||
|1.8 | |||
|1.8 | |||
|1.8 | |||
|- | |||
| - June projection | |||
|1.0 | |||
|1.1 | |||
|1.8 | |||
| | |||
|1.8 | |||
|- | |||
|Unemployment rate | |||
|3.8 | |||
|4.1 | |||
|4.1 | |||
|4.0 | |||
|4.0 | |||
|- | |||
| - June projection | |||
|4.1 | |||
|4.5 | |||
|4.5 | |||
| | |||
|4.0 | |||
|- | |||
|PCE inflation | |||
|3.3 | |||
|2.5 | |||
|2.2 | |||
|2.0 | |||
|2.0 | |||
|- | |||
| - June projection | |||
|3.2 | |||
|2.5 | |||
|2.1 | |||
| | |||
|2.0 | |||
|- | |||
|Core PCE inflation | |||
|3.7 | |||
|2.6 | |||
|2.3 | |||
|2.0 | |||
| | |||
|- | |||
| - June projection | |||
|3.9 | |||
|2.6 | |||
|2.2 | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|- | |||
|'''Projected appropriate policy path''' | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
| | |||
|- | |||
|Federal funds rate | |||
|5.6 | |||
|5.1 | |||
|3.9 | |||
|2.9 | |||
|2.5 | |||
|- | |||
| - June projection | |||
|5.6 | |||
|4.6 | |||
|3.4 | |||
| | |||
|2.5 | |||
|} | |||
== Market Expectations == | == Market Expectations == | ||