6,294
edits
Gaza-Israel War: Difference between revisions
no edit summary
No edit summary |
No edit summary |
||
| Line 94: | Line 94: | ||
* Saudi Arabia also wants American support for its civilian nuclear program, among other things<ref name=":5" />. | * Saudi Arabia also wants American support for its civilian nuclear program, among other things<ref name=":5" />. | ||
* Demands of Palestines are not included in the deal<ref name=":5" />. | * Demands of Palestines are not included in the deal<ref name=":5" />. | ||
== Analyst Opinions == | |||
=== Jonathan Panikoff, Atlantic Council === | |||
* Hezbollah could get involved if there is a chance that Hamas will be attacked to an extent that it may no longer be a valuable partner<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oGOefWQ9GA</ref>. | |||
=== William Wechsler, Atlantic Council === | |||
* Without Iran Hamas would not have weapons<ref>https://www.dw.com/en/without-iran-hamas-would-not-have-weapons-william-wechsler-atlantic-council/video-67058604</ref>. | |||
=== Nicholas Blanford, Atlantic Council === | |||
* Iran has the final say in " whether Hezbollah goes to war with Israel. "<ref>https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-will-hezbollah-do-next-heres-how-the-hamas-israel-conflict-could-engulf-the-region/</ref> | |||
* Hezbollah is an important component of Iran's deterrence against Israel or the U.S, hence it's unlikely that they "will want to waste Hezbollah in a futile full-scale war with Israel for the sake of supporting Hamas in Gaza." | |||
* It seems evident that Israel does not want a war with Hezbollah. | |||
* The risk lies in Hezbollah deciding to raise the strength of the fight, especially if Israel starts ground incursion of Gaza. | |||
* The closer Hezbollah moves to the threshold level, the higher the chance of miscalculation that leads to a war that neither side currently appears to desire. | |||
=== Analysts, Council on Foreign Relations (cfr) === | |||
* Don't see involvement of Iran in the Northern front since they are satisfied with what has happened<ref>https://www.cfr.org/event/conflict-middle-east</ref>. | |||
* Don't see direct war between Israel and Iran. | |||
* Expects the northern front to remain "stabilized" | |||
* It's not a question of whether Iran was involved, but a question of the extent of the involvement. | |||
=== Daniel Byman, Foreign Policy (FP) === | |||
* Hezbollah may prefer to sit on the sidelines as they cheer Hamas<ref>https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/10/09/hezbollah-lebanon-hamas-war-israel-iran/</ref>. | |||
* If Hezbollah joins the war, it will complicate Israel's fight. | |||
* Hezbollah is controlled by Iran. | |||
=== Professor James A Russel, Department of National Security Affairs === | |||
* He doesn't see the war spilling into wider regional conflict<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6wyeJWsVC0</ref>. | |||
=== Professor Karim Emile Bitar, Senior Fellow at The French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) === | |||
* Hezbollah playing cautious<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KskipUGPyxo</ref>. | |||
* Iran population seems to have zero tolerance for the war. | |||
=== MP Bob Seeley, member of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee === | |||
* Iran wants to stop normalization of Israel<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gW1an21juc</ref>. | |||
=== Frank Figliuzzi, National Security Analyst === | |||
* Hamas could not have pulled off the attack without the help of Iran<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EhbLy11U8x4</ref>. | |||
=== Natan Sachs of Brookings Institute and Steven Cook of Council on Foreign Relations === | |||
* They are treating Hezbollah as Iran<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoNWCG_TUF8</ref>. | |||
== References == | == References == | ||