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Gaza-Israel War: Difference between revisions
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* That is according to American Enterprise Institute Scholar Kenneth Pollack. (Oct 10) <ref>https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/pondering-israels-military-options/</ref> | * That is according to American Enterprise Institute Scholar Kenneth Pollack. (Oct 10) <ref>https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/pondering-israels-military-options/</ref> | ||
=== Iran involvement | === Iran involvement in Hamas attack is likely === | ||
* Kenneth Pollack of American Enterprise Institute thinks Israel wants to remain ambiguous about Irans involvement in the attack until it has to capacity to deal with Iran and has decided on how it wants to deal with it. (Oct 16) <ref>https://www.youtube.com/live/5hNI5HlJe7o?si=zVJpJ8_FiroPefmz&t=1065</ref> | * Kenneth Pollack of American Enterprise Institute thinks Israel wants to remain ambiguous about Irans involvement in the attack until it has to capacity to deal with Iran and has decided on how it wants to deal with it. (Oct 16) <ref>https://www.youtube.com/live/5hNI5HlJe7o?si=zVJpJ8_FiroPefmz&t=1065</ref> | ||
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* He doesn't see involvement of Iran in the Northern front since they are satisfied with what has happened (Oct 9)<ref>https://www.cfr.org/event/conflict-middle-east</ref>. | * He doesn't see involvement of Iran in the Northern front since they are satisfied with what has happened (Oct 9)<ref>https://www.cfr.org/event/conflict-middle-east</ref>. | ||
=== | === Reasons why Hezbollah might not get involved === | ||
* Professor Karim Emile Bitar, Senior Fellow at The French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS), said Hezbollah is playing cautious (Oct 11)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KskipUGPyxo</ref> | * Professor Karim Emile Bitar, Senior Fellow at The French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS), said Hezbollah is playing cautious (Oct 11)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KskipUGPyxo</ref> | ||
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* Nicholas Blanford of Atlantic Council said Iran has the final say in " whether Hezbollah goes to war with Israel (Oct 10). "<ref>https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-will-hezbollah-do-next-heres-how-the-hamas-israel-conflict-could-engulf-the-region/</ref> He added that Hezbollah is an important component of Iran's deterrence against Israel or the U.S, hence it's unlikely that they "will want to waste Hezbollah in a futile full-scale war with Israel for the sake of supporting Hamas in Gaza." According to Blanford, it seems evident that Israel does not want a war with Hezbollah. Hence; the risk lies in Hezbollah deciding to raise the strength of the fight, especially if Israel starts ground incursion of Gaza. He pointed out that the closer Hezbollah moves to the threshold level, the higher the chance of miscalculation that leads to a war that neither side currently appears to desire. | * Nicholas Blanford of Atlantic Council said Iran has the final say in " whether Hezbollah goes to war with Israel (Oct 10). "<ref>https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-will-hezbollah-do-next-heres-how-the-hamas-israel-conflict-could-engulf-the-region/</ref> He added that Hezbollah is an important component of Iran's deterrence against Israel or the U.S, hence it's unlikely that they "will want to waste Hezbollah in a futile full-scale war with Israel for the sake of supporting Hamas in Gaza." According to Blanford, it seems evident that Israel does not want a war with Hezbollah. Hence; the risk lies in Hezbollah deciding to raise the strength of the fight, especially if Israel starts ground incursion of Gaza. He pointed out that the closer Hezbollah moves to the threshold level, the higher the chance of miscalculation that leads to a war that neither side currently appears to desire. | ||
* Ray Takeyh the northern front to remain "stabilized" and doesn't see direct war between Israel and Iran (Oct 9)<ref name=":6" />. | |||
* Daniel Byman of Foreign Policy (FP) said Hezbollah may prefer to sit on the sidelines as they cheer Hamas and if they join, it will complicate Israel's fight (Oct 9)<ref name=":7" /> | |||
=== Reasons why Hezbollah might want get involved === | |||
* Jonathan Panikoff of Atlantic Council said Hezbollah could get involved if there is a chance that Hamas will be attacked to an extent that it may no longer be a valuable partner (Oct 9)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oGOefWQ9GA</ref> | * Jonathan Panikoff of Atlantic Council said Hezbollah could get involved if there is a chance that Hamas will be attacked to an extent that it may no longer be a valuable partner (Oct 9)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oGOefWQ9GA</ref> | ||
=== Strategic reasons for Hamas attack to stop Saudi-Israel deal === | === Strategic reasons for Hamas attack to stop Saudi-Israel deal === | ||