6,294
edits
Gaza-Israel War: Difference between revisions
→Analyst Opinions
No edit summary |
|||
| Line 143: | Line 143: | ||
* Jonathan Panikoff of Atlantic Council said Hezbollah could get involved if there is a chance that Hamas will be attacked to an extent that it may no longer be a valuable partner (Oct 9)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oGOefWQ9GA</ref> | * Jonathan Panikoff of Atlantic Council said Hezbollah could get involved if there is a chance that Hamas will be attacked to an extent that it may no longer be a valuable partner (Oct 9)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oGOefWQ9GA</ref> | ||
==== How close is Iran to having nuclear weapon ==== | |||
According to experts who appeared for FDD discussions (October 16, 2023)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ns5lAlnEnsc&t=5423s</ref>; | |||
* There is a consensus that it takes Iran about 12 days to enrich uranium into a weapon grade. By the end of a month, the would have produce enough uranium for a total of 6 weapons (minute 14:37-15:55) | |||
* Iranian missiles quality eg range, precision. lethality and survivability has improved (minute 18:07-24:35). | |||
* Iran doesn't have over 5,500 KM missiles but can develop a three-stable ballistic missile that could make up for the short range (minute 18:07-24:35).The missile also has more stable storable liquid propellants eg corrosives. | |||
* If Iran uses hezbollah or its other proxy in the West Bank, they might decide to enrich uranium in its hidden plant (83% to 85% capacity)- minute 27:17. | |||
* Iran may decide to go for the nuclear bomb if its proxies are defeated (minute 33:18) | |||
* Iran has deployed advanced centrifuges or more across its 3 enrichement plants and they have enough uranium for 10 weapons (minute 34:52) | |||
According to the Institute of Peace and Diplomacy (September 26, 2023) discussions (around minute 35), there have been recent media reports that Iran is slowing down the enrichment of uranium due to a deal reached with U.S<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iE9rDiYzafA</ref>. | |||
According to Stimson Centre (March 14, 2023) discussions (minute 6:10-22:00)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BrGGCeLyuKg</ref>; | |||
* Iran has enriched to 60% in one of its locations. | |||
* Iran now positioned to develop a small nuclear weapon. | |||
* The 84% of nuclear particles detected by iea were described by Iran as "unintended fluctuations from 60%" and the iea president said Iran is not accumulating uranium enriched to this level. | |||
* Iran has no mastered how to build uranium metal work . It will take Iran 1 to 2 years to build the metal work, probably 6 to 12 months at the earliest. | |||
=== Strategic reasons for Hamas attack to stop Saudi-Israel deal === | === Strategic reasons for Hamas attack to stop Saudi-Israel deal === | ||