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Gaza-Israel War: Difference between revisions
→Analyst Opinions
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=== Iran involvement in Hamas attack is likely === | === Iran involvement in Hamas attack is likely === | ||
* Dalia Dassa, Senior Fellow at Center for International Relations said there are many rational reasons as to why Iran/ Hezbollah would not join the war, but as emotions and tensions increase in the region, the war escalates (min 23 and 54:30)-Oct 18<ref name=":9">https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/hamas-israel-war-analysis-wilson-experts-and-alums?1697637600</ref>. | |||
* Rym Momtaz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies believes that Total announcement that they didn't found any oil in the part of Lebanon they were looking into may change the rules of the war(minute 16:22-22:16, Oct 13)<ref name=":8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gSsmno_qNY&t=61s</ref>. | * Rym Momtaz of the International Institute for Strategic Studies believes that Total announcement that they didn't found any oil in the part of Lebanon they were looking into may change the rules of the war(minute 16:22-22:16, Oct 13)<ref name=":8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gSsmno_qNY&t=61s</ref>. | ||
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==== Reasons why Iran might not interfering ==== | ==== Reasons why Iran might not interfering ==== | ||
* David Hale, Global Fellow said Iranians/ Hezbollah are happy to see Palestinians die to the last in fight against Israel (around min 15:30)-Oct 19<ref name=":9" />. | |||
* If Iran uses Hezbollah, it would have lost two strategic proxies that ensures deterrence against Israel in the region (around 1:25, Oct 16)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wxo5M9whBqY</ref>. | * If Iran uses Hezbollah, it would have lost two strategic proxies that ensures deterrence against Israel in the region (around 1:25, Oct 16)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wxo5M9whBqY</ref>. | ||
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=== Reasons why Hezbollah might want get involved === | === Reasons why Hezbollah might want get involved === | ||
* David Hale, Global Fellow said said anything can happen. That the rules of the game in the Southern and Northern Lebanon border can't necessarily be counted and that if Israel doesn't succeed, the proxies might take advantage (min 54:30)-Oct 18<ref name=":9" /> . | |||
* Jonathan Panikoff of Atlantic Council said Hezbollah could get involved if there is a chance that Hamas will be attacked to an extent that it may no longer be a valuable partner (Oct 9)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oGOefWQ9GA</ref> | * Jonathan Panikoff of Atlantic Council said Hezbollah could get involved if there is a chance that Hamas will be attacked to an extent that it may no longer be a valuable partner (Oct 9)<ref>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oGOefWQ9GA</ref> | ||