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Economic Outlook: Difference between revisions
→4. New orders
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What is the current data telling us? | What is the current data telling us? | ||
# The ISM Manufacturing New Orders subindex in the United States decreased to | # The ISM Manufacturing New Orders subindex in the United States decreased to 45.20 points in December from 47.20 points in November of 2022. It was the lowest reading since May 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. <ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-manufacturing-new-orders</ref> | ||
# The ISM Non Manufacturing New Orders subindex in the United States decreased to 45.20 points in December from 56 points in November of 2022.<ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-non-manufacturing-new-orders</ref> | # The ISM Non Manufacturing New Orders subindex in the United States decreased to 45.20 points in December from 56 points in November of 2022. The reading pointed to the first contraction in new orders since May of 2020.<ref>https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/ism-non-manufacturing-new-orders</ref> | ||
# New orders for manufactured durable goods in November, down following three consecutive monthly increases, decreased $5.8 billion or 2.1 percent to $270.6 billion. <ref>https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf</ref> | # New orders for manufactured durable goods in November, down following three consecutive monthly increases, decreased $5.8 billion or 2.1 percent to $270.6 billion. <ref>https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf</ref> | ||
In conclusion, the current data points to weaker and contracting future output or production. New orders is considered more of a short term leading indicator, so we can expect the weakness to materialize in production | In conclusion, the current data in new orders is in the contracting territory, this points to weaker and contracting future output or production. New orders is considered more of a short term leading indicator, so we can expect the weakness to materialize in production in Q1/Q2 2023. | ||
=== 5. Jobless Claims === | === 5. Jobless Claims === | ||