Economic Outlook: Difference between revisions

Economic Outlook (view source)

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 # The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for theU.S. decreased by 1.0 percent in November 2022 to 113.5 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.9 percent in October. The LEI is now down 3.7 percent over the six-month period between May and November 2022—a much steeper rate of decline than its 0.8 percent contraction over the previous six-month period, between November 2021 and May 2022. The decline was broad-based and only the stock market showed a positive contribution, though it has wobbled of late.<ref>https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators</ref>
-# Recession signal has hit in August 2022.<ref>https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-sept-2022#:~:text=The%20Conference%20Board%20Leading%20Economic,over%20the%20previous%20six%20months.</ref>
+# Recession signal was hit in August 2022.<ref>https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-sept-2022#:~:text=The%20Conference%20Board%20Leading%20Economic,over%20the%20previous%20six%20months.</ref>
 In conclusion, based on the index criteria the recession signal was hit on August 2022, and since then the index has deteriorated further. Giving the track record of the index and the lead time of 7 months, there is a high likehood that relying on this indicator the recession risks in the US economy are amplify significant in Q2 2023 onwards.