Talk:Volkswagen:Deliveries/Seasonal Analysis

User:PirateCaptain Given that the period between 2020 and 2022 was mered by supply chain constraints caused by Covid-19 and Ukraine war, can the months in those period be relied to give correct seasonal trends? Using the period 2017-2019, I established that deliveries have been low in February, April, July and August. Meanwhile, deliveries have been high in March, November, December. Used the formular below to come up with my conclusion.

Months with low deliveries

2017: February, April, July, August

2018: February, April, July, August, September(Special case), October(likely to be special case too)

2019: February, April, July, August

As you can see, February, April, July, August appears in all periods.

Months with high deliveries

2017: March, Sept, October, November, December

2018: March, April, June, November, December

2019: March, June, October, November, December

As you can see, March, November and December appears more than the rest.

Let me know what you think. I think we may have to go back a few more yearsto understand the trend better.--Aron (talk) 13:01, 18 January 2023 (UTC)

User:PirateCaptain I have finished computing the deviations and summarizing the results.--Aron (talk) 11:49, 19 January 2023 (UTC)

User:Aron Exactly the same thoughts. I think we should include at least 4 more years. Depending on how long it takes you to add this data you could also go back very far like e.g. to 2002 so that we cover 20years including the recession in 2008. I plan to have a more detailed analysis for months in which there are outliers in delivery numbers. Can you include an analysis for December here Volkswagen:Deliveries/2022_December? I wonder why deliveries have been so strong. Additionally i am thinking to add deviations for all months directly in the Wiki like i did as an example for December. Do you think that makes sense? If yes go ahead and add the deviations for all months. If no explain why not in a comment here --PirateCaptain (talk) 15:04, 19 January 2023 (UTC)

User:PirateCaptain adding monthly deviations should be easy.I only need to copy-paste into wiki--Aron (talk) 15:46, 19 January 2023 (UTC)

User:PirateCaptain It's hard to get data beyond 2011. --Aron (talk) 18:18, 23 January 2023 (UTC)

User:Aron Ok no problem. I think data from 2011 is already a pretty good start. Please add the deviation numbers and the average deviation for each of the months for the whole period from 2011-2022. --PirateCaptain (talk) 19:59, 23 January 2023 (UTC)

User:PirateCaptain It's done.--Aron (talk) 09:56, 24 January 2023 (UTC)

User:Aron Cool perfect. Just out of curiosity: Why is it hard to get data before 2011? I saw that in some raw circumstance you've used other sources as the primary source e.g. automotive world. Try to avoid that in the future and always use the primary source whenever possible. See also Guidelines:Sources --PirateCaptain (talk) 10:28, 24 January 2023 (UTC)

User: PirateCaptain well, probably there weren't many news channel interested on it. Sometimes it's hard for google search to return such data from the official VW website(Probably due to weak SEO). Also, Searching on the VW website may not return the data. That's why I used those secondary sources. I am sure data beyond 2011 exists as I was able to come across data for some months, but getting all the data requires extensive such and a lot of time. --Aron (talk) 11:32, 24 January 2023 (UTC)

User:Aron You're right. I had a brief look as well and couldn't find old delivery numbers on the official VW website. The fact that it is so hard to find detailed data like that indicates that a deliveries overview like the one you've build should have value to VW investors if we manage to get enough visibility for it. At one point (Low Prio) we should try again finding this delivery data using different search methods (e.g. Via Experts on Volkswagen on Twitter (?)) Doing so will also help us building Lists of experts and improve our search capabilities (add data of experts to companies like in this example Volkswagen:Experts. --PirateCaptain (talk) 12:00, 24 January 2023 (UTC)

User:PirateCaptain I agree.--Aron (talk) 13:08, 24 January 2023 (UTC)

User:PirateCaptain Do you mean I add data of experts on our portfolio companies or that statement is just part of the initial statement" Doing so will also help us building Lists of experts and improve our search capabilities" ?--Aron (talk) 13:53, 24 January 2023 (UTC)

User:Aron You understood it completely right. (I saw you started to add content to the article and created other articles in the same format for other companies). I just had a second thought and think calling those pages Company:Sources might be the better naming. What do you think? I'd like to collect the best sources about companies including a list of the best experts in this sub article. --PirateCaptain (talk) 17:29, 24 January 2023 (UTC)

User:PirateCaptain Sounds good.--Aron (talk) 19:13, 24 January 2023 (UTC)

User:PirateCaptain I have managed to add names of all the analysts covering our portfolio companies. I have also followed all of them in LinkedIn. I think the most efficient way to create a collection of those experts is to add them as we continue with the research(like I was able to come up with experts on 1&1), not unless there is a specific company that you need collection of its experts as soon as possible. Let me know what you think.--Aron (talk) 11:10, 27 January 2023 (UTC)

Aron Very cool, i love the initiative. (Especially that you linked LinkedIn directly + that you include a last publication) Have a look at Volkswagen sources. I think most analysts are listed at TipRanks so insert a TR link like i did it in the example as well. From this Link the Price Target and Rating are also easily findable. (The Symbol for Volkswagen that we own is VOW3.) If the analyst has as a dedicated webpage about him or is active on twitter link those as well. Some analyst have a way larger following compared to others. Try to find out which of the analysts is the most important and moved the market the most with predictions in the past and rate that under market influence. If something noticeable stands out about the analyst create a dedicated subpage for the analyst. (Format Volkswagen:Analyst/Name of Analyst)

Addition: Here are 2 untested suggestions how you could find out the market influence of an analyst. (Follow them if they work or come up with other ways if they don't) 1. It can be partially done via Tipranks - You just need to register an account and click on the Stock to see the last analyst recommendations of the stock and if they coincidence with larger stock movements (esp. when the rating changes). 2. Additionally i'd google the name of the analyst + the name of the company and see if first results show a new prediction of the analyst + a strong stock movement on that day. (Because if the analyst changes his price target a lot let's say buy rating of 150€-> buy rating of 250€ that event could cause the stock to jump but on TipRanks it's not clearly visible which prediction changes are the most important ones).

PS. Eventually after we established a new process we'd want to write a guideline how we are doing it. (But only after the process works well and is clear). I therefore created already the name of the Guideline-> Guideline:Analysts in the Guideline section. I am not sure if we should describe self explanatory steps in such a Guideline if we can use an example article which is clear enough (what is your opinion?) but importantly we should note down everything that is not obvious like good methods we come across e.g. Best way to measure the Market Influence of an Analyst --PirateCaptain (talk) 19:32, 27 January 2023 (UTC)

User:PirateCaptain Okay, well understood. I will work on that.--Aron (talk) 20:47, 27 January 2023 (UTC)