US Nonfarm Payroll and Unemployment Rate

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Development in Nonfarm Payroll


Percentage Annual Change

Nonfarm Payrolls[1] Unemployment Rate[2] Labor force Participation rate[3] Market Reaction Release Date
Period Actual Forecast Previous(Revised) Actual Forecast Previous Actual Forecast Previous
2024 October 12K 106K 223K 4.10% 4.10% 4.10% 62.6% 62.7% 62.7% Movement is unfounded November
2024 September 254K 147K 159K 4.10% 4.20% 4.20% 62.7% 62.7% 62.7% Dow futures rose 0.4%, S&P 500 gained 0.7% while

Nasdaq 100 was up 1%

October
2024 August 142K 164K 89K 4.20% 4.20% 4.30% 62.7% 62.7% Dow futures and S&P 500 shed 0.2% while

Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.6%.

September
2024 July 114K 176K 179K 4.30% 4.10% 4.10% 62.7% 62.6% 62.6% Dow futures shed 1.3%, S&P 500 fell 1.6% while

Nasdaq 100 declined 2.3%

August
2024 June 206K 191K 218K 4.10% 4.00% 4.00% 62.6% 62.5% Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.9% while S&P 500 futures

were up 0.5%.

July
2024 May 272K 182K 165K 4.00% 3.90% 3.90% 62.5% 62.7% Nasdaq 100 shed 0.3%, Dow Jones were down 0.2%

while S&P 500 slipped by 0.4%[4].

June
2024 April 175K 238K 315K 3.90% 3.80% 3.80% 62.7% 62.7% Nasdaq 100 added 1.6%, Dow Jones rose 1.3% while

S&P 500 gained 1.1%[5].

May
2024 March 303K 212K 270K 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 62.7% 62.6% 62.5% Nasdaq 100 added 0.4% while S&P 500 gained 0.3% April
2024 February 275K 198K 229K 3.90% 3.70% 3.70% 62.5% 62.5% Nasdaq 100 added 0.2% while S&P 500 gained 0.2%[6]. March
2024 January 353K 187K 333K 3.70% 3.80% 3.70% 62.5% 62.6% 62.5% February
2023 December 216K 170K 173K 3.70% 3.80% 3.70% 62.5% 62.8% 62.8% January
2023 November 199K 180K 150K 3.70% 3.90% 3.90% 62.8% 62.7% 62.7% December 8
2023 October 150K 180K 297K 3.90% 3.80% 3.80% 62.7% 62.8% 62.8% November
2023 September 336K 170K 227K 3.80% 3.70% 3.80% 62.80% 62.80% October 6
2023 August 187K 170K 157K 3.80% 3.50% 3.50% 62.80% 62.60% 62.60% September 1
2023 July 187K 200K 185K 3.50% 3.60% 3.60% 62.60% 62.60% 62.60% August 4
2023 June 209K 225K 281K 3.60% 3.60% 3.70% 62.60% 62.60% 62.60% July 7
2023 May 339K 180K 294K 3.70% 3.50% 3.40% 62.60% 62.50% 62.60% June 2
2023 April 253K 180K 165K 3.40% 3.60% 3.50% 62.40% 62.50% 62.60% May 5
2023 Mar 236K 239K 326K 3.50% 3.60% 3.60% 62.60% 62.50% 62.50% April 7
2023 February 311K 205K 504K 3.60% 3.40% 3.40% 62.50% 62.40% March 10
2023 January 517K 185K 260K 3.40% 3.60% 3.50% 62.50% 62.40% February 03
2023 December 223K 200K 256K 3.50% 3.70% 3.60% 62.40% 62.30% January 06
2022 November 263K 200K 284K 3.70% 3.70% 3.70% 62.30% 62.20% December 02
2022 October 261K 200K 315K 3.70% 3.60% 3.50% 62.10% 62.20% November 04
2022 Sep 263K 250K 315K 3.50% 3.70% 3.70% 62.20% 62.30% October 07
2022 August 315K 300K 526K 3.70% 3.50% 3.50% 62.30% 62.40% September 02
2022 July 528K 250K 398K 3.50% 3.60% 3.60% 62.40% 62.10% August 05
2022 June 372K 268K 384K 3.60% 3.60% 3.60% 62.10% 62.20% July 08
2022 May 390K 325K 436K 3.60% 3.50% 3.60% 62.20% 62.30% June 03
2022 April 428K 391K 428K 3.60% 3.50% 3.60% 62.30% 62.20% May 06

2024

February

  • Nonfarm payrolls increased by 275,000 in February[7], exceeding January’s 229,000 (revised down from 353,000) and 200,000 estimate[8].
  • Unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, above 3.7% estimate.
  • Labor force participation rate was steady at 62.5%
  • Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% on the month, lower-than the 0.2% estimate (+0.6% previously).
  • Yearly, average hourly earnings rose 4.3%, lower-than 4.4% estimate (+4.5% previously).
  • Job gains were led by healthcare (+67,000), leisure and hospitality (+58,000),government (+52,000), social assistance (+24,000) and construction (+23,000).
  • Stock futures rose slighly following the results- Nasdaq 100 added 0.2% while S&P 500 gained 0.2%.

2023

February

  • The US economy added 311,000 jobs in February, above the 225,000 Dow Jones estimate.
  • On the other hand, the unemployment rate rose to 3.6%, above the 3.4% estimate.
  • Labor force participation rate was 62.5% in the month versus 62.4% in January.
  • Leisure and hospitality led the gain with an addition of 105,000 jobs in March[9].

March

  • The U.S economy added 236,000 jobs in March versus 238,000 expected.
  • The unemployment rate came in 3.5% versus 3.6% estimate.
  • Labor force participation rate was 62.5% in the month versus 62.5% in February. It was expected to remain flat.
  • Leisure and hospitality led the gain with an addition of 72,000 jobs in March

April

  • U.S added 253,000 jobs in April , beating the 180,000 estimate[10].
  • The unemployment rate was 3.4%, below the 3.6% estimate[10].
  • Average hourly earnings rose 0.5% in April, above the 0.3% estimate[10].
  • Annually, average hourly earnings rose 4.4%, exceeding the 4.2% estimate[10] .
  • Labor participation rate was 62.4%, in-line with 62.5% estimate.
  • The job gains were led by Professional and business services(+43,000) followed by healthcare(+40,000) and then leisure and hospitality (31,000).

May

  • The U.S economy added 339,000 jobs in May versus 195,000 estimate[11].
  • Unemployment rate rose 3.7% in the month versus 3.5% expected[11].
  • Month-over-month, average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in-line with expectations[11].
  • Yearly, average hourly earnings grew by 4.3% versus 4.4% expectated[11].
  • The rise in job numbers was led by professional and business services(+64,000), followed by government jobs(+56,000) and then health care(+33,000)[12].
  • Labor participation rate was 62.6% versus 62.5% estimate.

June

  • Nonfarm payrolls increased 209,000 in June, below the 240,000 Dow Jone estimate[13].
  • Unemployment rate was 3.6%, in-line with expectations but below the 3.7% in May.
  • Labor force participation rate was 62.6% for the fourth consecutive month[14].
  • Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4%, exceeding the 0.3% estimate.
  • Year-over-year, average hourly rate rose by 4.4%, also above the 4.2% estimate.
  • Job growth was more pronounced in governement(+60,000), health care (+41,000), social assistance (+24,000) and construction (+23,000).

July

  • The U.S economy added 187,000 jobs in July, below Dow Jones estimate for 200,000 and above 185,000(downwardly revised) added in June[15].
  • Unemployment rate was 3.5%, below 3.6% estimate[15].
  • Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% m/m and 4.4% y/y, above estimate for a 0.3% m/m and 4.2% y/y increase[15].
  • Labor force participation rate held steady at 62.6% for a fifth straight month.
  • The biggest job creators were health(63,000), social assistance(24,000), financial activities(19,000)[16].

August

  • Nonfarm payrolls increased by 187,000 in August, above 170,000 estimate and 157,000 in July(revised down from 187,000)[17].
  • Unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in August from 3.5% in July, exceeding 3.5% estimate.
  • Labor force participation rate rose 0.2% to 62.8%, after being flat since March.
  • Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% m/m and 4.3% y/y, below expectations for it to increase by 0.3% m/m and 4.4% y/y.
  • Job growth was more pronounced in healthcare(+71,000), leisure and hospitality(+40,000), social assistance(+26,000) and construction(+22,000).
  • The biggest job losers were transportation and warehousing(-34,000) and information(-15,000).

September

  • The U.S economy added 336,000 jobs in September, up from 227,000 in August (revised up from 187,000) and more than 170,000 estimate[18].
  • Unemployment rate was unchanged from August at 3.8% and above 3.7% estimate.
  • Average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, lower than 0.3% estimate.
  • Year-over-year, average hourly earnings rose 4.2%, below 4.3% estimate.
  • Labor force participation rate was steady at 62.8%.
  • Job gains were led by leisure and hospitality (+96,000), government (+73,000), health care (41,000) and professional, scientific and technical services (29,000).

October

  • U.S economy added 150,000 jobs in October[19], up from 297,000 in August (revised down from 336,000) and lower than 180,000 estimate.
  • Unemployment rate was 3.9%, highest level since January 2022 and above 3.8% estimate.
  • Average hourly earnings rose 0.2%, lower than 0.3% estimate.
  • Labor force participation rate was at 62.7%, lower than 62.8% estimate.
  • Job gains were led by healthcare (+58,000), government (+51,000), construction(23,000) and social assistance (19,000).

November

  • U.S nonfarm payrolls rose 199,000[20] in November, below 185,000 Bloomberg estimate[21] and above 150,000 gain in October.
  • Unemployment fell to 3.7% versus 3.9% estimate.
  • Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month, lower than the 0.3% estimate[22].
  • Yearly, average hourly earnings rose 4%, in-line with the estimate.
  • Labor force participation rate rose to 62.8% from 62.7% in October.
  • The return of striking workers boosted the non-farm payrolls by 30,000, according to Bloomberg.
  • Job gains were led by healthcare (+77,000), government (+49,000), manufacturing (28,000) leisure and hospitality (40,000).

December

  • Nonfarm payrolls increased by 216,000 in December[23], exceeding November’s 173,000 (revised down from 199,000) and 170,000 estimate[24].
  • Unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%, lower than 3.8% estimate.
  • Labor force participation rate fell to 62.5% from 62.8% in November, below expectations to be flat.
  • Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% on the month, higher than the 0.3% estimate (+0.4% previously).
  • Yearly, average hourly earnings rose 4.1%, higher than 3.9% estimate (+4.0% previously).
  • Job gains were led by government (+52,000), healthcare (+38,000), leisure and hospitality (+40,000), social assistance (+21,000) and construction (+17,000).

Developments Nonfarm Payroll Cyclical Sectors

Manufacturing

% Annual Change

Date[25] Manufacturing
Thousands SA M/M % Y/Y % M/M Thousands Y/Y Thousands
2023-09-01 13,011 0.13 0.73 17 94
2023-08-01 12,994 0.08 0.80 11 103
2023-07-01 12,983 -0.02 0.96 -2 123
2023-06-01 12,985 0.03 1.29 4 166
2023-05-01 12,981 -0.03 1.50 -4 192
2023-04-01 12,985 0.07 1.70 9 217
2023-03-01 12,976 -0.09 2.04 -12 260
2023-02-01 12,988 0.02 2.64 3 334
2023-01-01 12,985 0.08 2.92 11 368
2022-12-01 12,974 0.05 3.10 6 390
2022-11-01 12,968 0.11 3.41 14 428
2022-10-01 12,954 0.29 3.67 37 458
2022-09-01 12,917 0.20 3.86 26 480
2022-08-01 12,891 0.24 4.00 31 496
2022-07-01 12,860 0.32 4.14 41 511
2022-06-01 12,819 0.23 4.42 30 543
2022-05-01 12,789 0.16 4.32 21 530
2022-04-01 12,768 0.41 4.42 52 540
2022-03-01 12,716 0.49 3.63 62 446
2022-02-01 12,654 0.29 3.53 37 432
2022-01-01 12,617 0.26 3.45 33 421
2021-12-01 12,584 0.35 3.16 44 385
2021-11-01 12,540 0.35 3.13 44 381
2021-10-01 12,496 0.47 3.06 59 371
2021-09-01 12,437 0.34 2.78 42 336
2021-08-01 12,395 0.37 2.91 46 351
2021-07-01 12,349 0.59 2.75 73 331
2021-06-01 12,276 0.14 2.50 17 299
2021-05-01 12,259 0.25 5.26 31 613
2021-04-01 12,228 -0.34 7.13 -42 814
2021-03-01 12,270 0.39 -3.54 48 -450
2021-02-01 12,222 0.21 -4.40 26 -563
2021-01-01 12,196 -0.02 -4.64 -3 -594

Construction


% Annual Change

Date[26] Construction
Thousands SA M/M % Y/Y % M/M Thousands Y/Y Thousands
2023-09-01 8,014 0.14 2.78 11 217
2023-08-01 8,003 0.45 2.85 36 222
2023-07-01 7,967 0.15 2.50 12 194
2023-06-01 7,955 0.37 2.66 29 206
2023-05-01 7,926 0.32 2.46 25 190
2023-04-01 7,901 0.14 2.64 11 203
2023-03-01 7,890 -0.11 2.57 -9 198
2023-02-01 7,899 0.18 3.00 14 230
2023-01-01 7,885 0.33 3.89 26 295
2022-12-01 7,859 0.33 3.49 26 265
2022-11-01 7,833 0.24 3.61 19 273
2022-10-01 7,814 0.22 3.99 17 300
2022-09-01 7,797 0.21 4.35 16 325
2022-08-01 7,781 0.10 4.71 8 350
2022-07-01 7,773 0.31 4.83 24 358
2022-06-01 7,749 0.17 4.72 13 349
2022-05-01 7,736 0.49 4.63 38 342
2022-04-01 7,698 0.08 3.94 6 292
2022-03-01 7,692 0.30 4.02 23 297
2022-02-01 7,669 1.04 5.18 79 378
2022-01-01 7,590 -0.05 3.08 -4 227
2021-12-01 7,594 0.45 3.25 34 239
2021-11-01 7,560 0.61 3.32 46 243
2021-10-01 7,514 0.56 2.79 42 204
2021-09-01 7,472 0.55 2.98 41 216
2021-08-01 7,431 0.22 2.85 16 206
2021-07-01 7,415 0.20 3.06 15 220
2021-06-01 7,400 0.08 3.21 6 230
2021-05-01 7,394 -0.16 5.49 -12 385
2021-04-01 7,406 0.15 13.47 11 879
2021-03-01 7,395 1.43 -1.91 104 -144
2021-02-01 7,291 -0.98 -4.17 -72 -317
2021-01-01 7,363 0.11 -2.86 8 -217

Residential Building Construction

% Annual Change

Date[27] Residential Building Construction
Thousands SA M/M % Y/Y % M/M Thousands Y/Y Thousands
2023-09-01 933 0.72 0.92 7 9
2023-08-01 926 0.41 0.21 4 2
2023-07-01 923 -0.74 -0.16 -7 -2
2023-06-01 930 0.18 0.88 2 8
2023-05-01 928 -0.03 0.29 0 3
2023-04-01 928 -0.38 1.07 -4 10
2023-03-01 932 -0.01 1.97 0 18
2023-02-01 932 -0.44 2.32 -4 21
2023-01-01 936 0.16 3.64 2 33
2022-12-01 934 0.57 4.23 5 38
2022-11-01 929 -0.05 4.48 -1 40
2022-10-01 930 0.53 5.29 5 47
2022-09-01 925 0.01 5.08 0 45
2022-08-01 925 0.04 5.83 0 51
2022-07-01 924 0.29 6.56 3 57
2022-06-01 921 -0.40 7.41 -4 64
2022-05-01 925 0.74 8.10 7 69
2022-04-01 918 0.51 7.49 5 64
2022-03-01 914 0.33 6.48 3 56
2022-02-01 911 0.85 7.61 8 64
2022-01-01 903 0.73 7.17 7 60
2021-12-01 896 0.81 7.02 7 59
2021-11-01 889 0.72 7.39 6 61
2021-10-01 883 0.33 6.72 3 56
2021-09-01 880 0.72 7.45 6 61
2021-08-01 874 0.74 7.85 6 64
2021-07-01 867 1.10 7.98 9 64
2021-06-01 858 0.23 8.09 2 64
2021-05-01 856 0.18 10.63 2 82
2021-04-01 854 -0.43 20.60 -4 146
2021-03-01 858 1.39 2.94 12 25
2021-02-01 846 0.44 1.08 4 9
2021-01-01 843 0.59 1.70 5 14

Temp Help Services

% Annual Change

Date[28] Temporary Help Services
Thousands SA M/M % Y/Y % M/M Thousands Y/Y Thousands
2023-09-01 2,943 -0.14 -6.00 -4 -188
2023-08-01 2,948 -0.45 -5.53 -13 -172
2023-07-01 2,961 -0.58 -5.10 -17 -159
2023-06-01 2,978 -1.19 -4.49 -36 -140
2023-05-01 3,014 -0.23 -3.55 -7 -111
2023-04-01 3,021 -0.67 -3.22 -21 -101
2023-03-01 3,042 -0.11 -4.26 -3 -135
2023-02-01 3,045 -0.31 -3.30 -10 -104
2023-01-01 3,055 0.55 -1.19 17 -37
2022-12-01 3,038 -1.78 -0.98 -55 -30
2022-11-01 3,093 -1.54 1.34 -49 41
2022-10-01 3,141 0.33 3.43 10 104
2022-09-01 3,131 0.36 8.07 11 234
2022-08-01 3,120 0.00 7.93 0 229
2022-07-01 3,120 0.05 8.03 2 232
2022-06-01 3,118 -0.22 9.55 -7 272
2022-05-01 3,125 0.12 11.93 4 333
2022-04-01 3,122 -1.74 11.70 -55 327
2022-03-01 3,177 0.90 10.05 28 290
2022-02-01 3,149 1.86 10.92 57 310
2022-01-01 3,091 0.76 10.43 23 292
2021-12-01 3,068 0.52 12.18 16 333
2021-11-01 3,052 0.49 13.79 15 370
2021-10-01 3,037 4.83 15.47 140 407
2021-09-01 2,897 0.23 15.63 7 392
2021-08-01 2,891 0.10 16.88 3 417
2021-07-01 2,888 1.46 22.40 42 529
2021-06-01 2,846 1.94 28.37 54 629
2021-05-01 2,792 -0.09 37.86 -3 767
2021-04-01 2,795 -3.20 43.08 -92 841
2021-03-01 2,887 1.70 0.62 48 18
2021-02-01 2,839 1.41 -1.56 39 -45
2021-01-01 2,799 2.36 -3.78 65 -110

Trucking

Date[29] Truck Transportation
Thousands SA M/M % Y/Y % M/M Thousands Y/Y Thousands
2023-09-01 1,585 0.56 -0.86 9 -14
2023-08-01 1,576 -1.57 -1.52 -25 -24
2023-07-01 1,601 -0.43 0.24 -7 4
2023-06-01 1,608 -0.09 1.03 -1 16
2023-05-01 1,609 0.03 1.60 1 25
2023-04-01 1,609 0.07 2.35 1 37
2023-03-01 1,608 0.08 2.93 1 46
2023-02-01 1,606 -0.32 2.65 -5 41
2023-01-01 1,611 0.27 3.47 4 54
2022-12-01 1,607 0.10 3.93 2 61
2022-11-01 1,606 0.01 4.27 0 66
2022-10-01 1,605 0.44 4.70 7 72
2022-09-01 1,598 -0.11 4.59 -2 70
2022-08-01 1,600 0.19 5.22 3 79
2022-07-01 1,597 0.35 5.45 6 83
2022-06-01 1,591 0.48 5.48 8 83
2022-05-01 1,584 0.77 5.40 12 81
2022-04-01 1,572 0.63 4.33 10 65
2022-03-01 1,562 -0.20 3.96 -3 60
2022-02-01 1,565 0.48 4.79 8 72
2022-01-01 1,557 0.71 4.50 11 67
2021-12-01 1,546 0.43 3.85 7 57
2021-11-01 1,540 0.42 4.06 7 60
2021-10-01 1,533 0.34 4.28 5 63
2021-09-01 1,528 0.49 4.59 8 67
2021-08-01 1,521 0.40 4.59 6 67
2021-07-01 1,515 0.38 4.86 6 70
2021-06-01 1,509 0.41 4.82 6 69
2021-05-01 1,503 -0.25 4.77 -4 68
2021-04-01 1,506 0.27 5.27 4 75
2021-03-01 1,502 0.60 -0.87 9 -13
2021-02-01 1,493 0.20 -1.73 3 -26
2021-01-01 1,490 0.08 -1.72 1 -26

References

  1. https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227
  2. https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/unemployment-rate-300
  3. https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/participation-rate-1581
  4. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/06/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
  5. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/02/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
  6. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/07/stock-market-today-live-updates.html#:~:text=Futures%20linked%20to%20the%20broad,24%20points%2C%20sitting%20near%20flat.
  7. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
  8. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-08/us-payrolls-exceed-expectations-at-275-000-while-wage-gains-cool
  9. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/february-jobs-report-march-10-2023-124602371.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/jobs-report-february-2023.html?__source=androidappshare
  10. 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/05/jobs-report-april-2023-job-growth-totals-25300-in-april.html
  11. 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/may-jobs-report-june-2-2023-123218296.html#:~:text=The%20May%20jobs%20report%20released,of%20Labor%20Statistics%20showed%20Friday.
  12. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
  13. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/07/jobs-report-june-2023-.html
  14. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
  15. 15.0 15.1 15.2 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobs-report-august-4-july-2023-123149729.html#:~:text=Yahoo%20Finance%20LIVE%20%2D%20Aug%204%20AM&text=The%20US%20economy%20created%20187%2C000,the%20least%20since%20December%202020.
  16. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
  17. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
  18. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
  19. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
  20. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
  21. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-08/us-labor-market-strengthens-as-hiring-gains-unemployment-falls
  22. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/08/jobs-report-november-2023-us-payrolls-rose-199000-in-november-unemployment-rate-falls-to-3point7percent.html
  23. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
  24. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/05/jobs-report-december-2023-payrolls-increased-by-216000-in-december.html
  25. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP
  26. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USCONS
  27. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES2023610001
  28. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TEMPHELPS
  29. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES4348400001