Volkswagen: Deliveries/FY2023

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Brand Deliveries

Brand January[1] δ(%) February[2] δ(%) March[3] δ(%) Q1[3] δ(%) April[4] δ(%)[5] May[6] δ(%) June[7] δ(%) Q2[8] δ(%) July[9] δ(%) August[10] δ(%) September[11] δ(%) Q3[11] δ(%) October[12] δ(%) November[13] δ(%) December[14] δ(%) Jan-Dec 2023 δ(%)
Brand Group Core 452,400 -12.7   432,300 +9.3 568,100 +24 1,453,500 +6.0 516,900 39.9% 543,900 14.99% 602,800 3.8% 1,663,600 16.9% 563,900 5.2% 540,200 4.4% 597,900 7.2% 1,701,700 5.6% 556,700 9.8% 598,200 24.5% 688,600 11.8% 6,662,200 10.9%
Volkswagen Passenger Cars 324,400 -19.4 303,400 +7.9 393,700 +19.9 1,021,500 +1.0 374,500 42.9% 391,700 10.49% 437,000 -2.4% 1,203,200 13.1% 412,100 -0.9% 405,300 -1.7% 442,100 2.7% 1,259,500 0.1% 414,100 6.6% 443,000 23.1% 525,500 9.4% 4,866,800 6.7%
SKODA 62,600 +0.5 64,800 +6.8 82,200 +29.9 209,600 +12.6 69,300 30.8% 74,700 34.84% 78,700 19.2% 222,700 27.7% 71,900 17.4% 65,000 18.9% 73,100 7.4% 210,000 14.1% 69,600 14.5% 77,600 30.7% 77,300 16.3% 866,800 18.5%
SEAT/CUPRA 36,200 +30.8 35,300 +24.2 53,700 +52.1 125,200 +37.0 43,100 33.9% 42,800 6.73% 50,300 24.2% 136,200 20.7% 47,000 45.7% 37,800 53.6% 45,800 47.8% 130,400 48.4% 38,500 31.0% 41,700 38.3% 47,200 38.5% 519,200 34.6%
Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles 29,200 +13.7 28,800 +14.8 38,400 +23.8 97,200 +18.7 30,000 34.5% 34,800 51.30% 36,800 38.9% 101,600 41.5% 32,900 23.3% 32,100 23.6% 36,900 30.8% 101,800 26.0% 34,500 21.5% 35,900 16.0% 38,500 10.5% 409,400 24.6%
Brand Group Progressive 116,200 -15.2 127,100 +16.0 178,500 +23.9 421,800 +7.9 149,600 43.7% 163,700 19.49% 184,400 11.4% 497,700 22.4% 158,000 14.1% 149,900 13.2% 177,400 23.4% 485,300 17.0% 154,100 15.3% 171,700 26.3% 188,700 20.3% 1,918,900 17.1%
Audi 114,400 -15.5 125,100 +16.0 176,100 +24.2 415,700 +7.9 147,700 44.9% 161,600 19.88% 182,100 11.5% 491,400 22.9% 156,300 14.7% 148,200 13.6% 175,400 23.8% 479,900 17.5% 152,400 15.6% 169,800 26.6% 186,500 20.5% 1,895,200 17.4%
Lamborghini/Bentley 1,800 +6.3 1,900 +12.1 2,400 +3.5 6,100 +6.9 1,900 -13.6% 2,100 -4.55% 2,300 -4.2% 6,300 -7.4% 1,700 -21.2% 1,700 -13.5% 2,000 -8.2% 5,400 -14.3% 1,800 0.0% 1,900 7.5% 2,200 6.9% 23,700 -3.0%
Brand Group Sport Luxury 24,900 +2.3 24,200 +43.5 31,700 +16.3 80,800 +18.0   28,300 17.9% 29,600 21.81% 28,700 -1.7% 86,600 11.7% 24,800 -7.2% 23,600 -1.5% 27,000 8.1% 75,400 -0.4% 25,600 8.5% 25,600 -7.3% 26,300 -29.4% 320,200 3.3%
Porsche 24,900 +2.3 24,200 +43.5 31,700 +16.3 80,800 +18.0 28,300 17.9% 29,600 21.81% 28,700 -1.7% 86,600 11.7% 24,800 -7.2% 23,600 -1.5% 27,000 8.1% 75,400 -0.4% 25,600 8.5% 25,600 -7.3% 26,300 -29.4% 320,200 3.3%
Brand Group Trucks 22,800 +12.7 28,000 +30.6 33,800 +29.5 84,600 +24.8 25,300 34.6% 26,600 10.83% 31,700 18.7% 83,600 20.3% 26,700 10.8% 26,500 0.5% 28,400 -3.5% 81,400 1.9% 29,100 6.2% 28,900 1.6% 30,700 -5.3% 338,200 10.7%
MAN 6,800 +26.7 8,700 +30.1 11,700 +62.1 27,300 +41.1 8,700 8.8% 9,400 -9.62% 10,600 76.7% 28,700 17.6% 9,300 38.6% 8,600 24.8% 10,100 37.0% 28,000 33.5% 10,100 24.7% 10,700 9.1% 10,800 0.5% 115,700 37.1%
Volkswagen Truck & Bus 4,500 -10.0 4,100 -15.8 3,500 -27.0 12,100 -17.5 2,700 -32.5% 2,300 -53.06% 2,900 -38.3% 7,900 -9.2% 3,200 -37.1% 3,500 -33.1% 3,000 -34.2% 9,600 -34.8% 2,800 -30.0% 2,600 -35.1% 2,100 -28.9% 37,100 -31.3%
Scania 5,200 +4.2 7,600 +49.0 9,800 +50.2 22,600 +35.9 7,000 32.1% 7,700 10.00% 9,200 16.5% 23,900 18.3% 7,000 2.9% 6,400 1.7% 8,100 -3.6% 21,400 -0.9% 9,100 11.0% 9,400 12.8% 10,500 1.6% 96,600 13.3%
Navistar 6,200 +30.0 7,600 +59.8 8,800 +16.2 22,500 +32.1 7,000 25.0% 7,300 10.61% 9,000 11.1% 23,300 14.8% 7,200 30.3% 8,000 0.5% 7,200 -21.1% 22,400 -0.8% 7,000 -1.4% 6,200 -1.7% 7,400 -12.9% 88,900 8.5%
Volkswagen Group (total) 616,200 -11.9 611,600 +12.6 812,100 +23.9 2,040,600 +7.5 720,200 39.4% 763,800 16.03% 847,600 5.7% 2,331,600 17.9% 773,400 6.6% 740,100 5.7% 830,600 9.9% 2,343,700 7.4% 765,500 10.7% 824,300 22.6% 934,300 10.9% 9,239,500 11.8%
Market reaction 0%

Deliveries to customers by markets[15]

Deliveries to customers by markets Jan[1] δ(%) February[2] δ(%) March[3] δ(%) Q1 δ(%) April[16] δ(%) May[17] δ(%) June[7] δ(%) Q2[18] δ(%) July[9] δ(%) August[10] δ(%) September[11] δ(%) Q3[11] δ(%) October[12] δ(%) November[13] δ(%) December[14] δ(%) Jan-Dec 2023 δ(%)
Western Europe 231,400 +20.2 228,700 +24.4 335,300 +33.8 795,400 +26.9 254,700 +28.7 275,200 21.6% 318,100 30.5% 848,000 27.0% 274,500 21.4% 231,900 21.1% 293,100 19.9% 799,300 20.7% 255,300 11.3% 284,400 14.8% 288,600 4.1% 3,271,000 20.6%
Central and Eastern Europe 29,900 -23.2 35,900 -16.1 48,100 +22.5 113,900 -5.8 44,100 +42.2 46,400 30.9% 49,100 23.6% 139,500 31.5% 42,000 15.5% 39,300 24.5% 40,200 8.0% 121,500 15.4% 38,600 8.1% 42,800 16.7% 47,200 26.9% 503,500 13.9%
North America 67,000 +15.5 69,900 +25.7 79,900 +25.1 216,800 -5.8 78,300 +8.9 80,300 9.2% 83,400 5.7% 242,000 7.9% 78,600 0.0% 87,400 14.0% 91,400 23.2% 257,400 12.2% 87,600 25.5% 94,100 47.2% 95,300 22.8% 993,100 17.9%
South America 35,500 +30.4 29,400 +14.1 38,800 +32.6 103,600 +26.1 33,900 +34.0 40,400 -4.8% 43,300 0.1% 117,700 5.9% 55,800 18.8% 43,800 -15.8% 44,700 -1.3% 144,400 0.0% 48,800 18.7% 46,000 -0.4% 57,700 18.1% 518,200 9.4%
China 203,100 -40.7 196,800 +1.6 244,700 +12.4 644,500 -14.5 255,700 +79.0 260,200 11.9% 291,400 -14.5% 807,400 12.7% 260,400 -10.2% 278,000 -6.5% 298,800 -0.9% 837,200 -5.8% 276,800 5.1% 296,100 32.4% 374,100 10.4% 3,236,100 1.6%
Asia-Pacific Rest 25,000 +17.5 27,300 +25.5 32,500 +9.3 84,700 +16.5 23,800 -3.5 30,000 16.5% 32,500 6.1% 86,300 6.5% 28,700 16.7% 29,600 8.8% 33,500 11.9% 91,700 12.3% 30,100 4.2% 30,600 2.4% 34,800 -0.8% 358,400 8.8%
Middle East/Africa 24,400 +26.9 23,700 +19.9 32,900 +31.0 81,700 +27.5 29,600 +29.8 31,200 41.2% 29,800 19.7% 90,700 29.8% 33,400 45.2% 30,100 26.2% 29,000 24.6% 92,300 31.7% 28,200 20.6% 30,400 24.2% 36,400 32.8% 359,300 28.6%
Worldwide 616,200 -11.9 611,600 +12.6 812,100 +23.9 2,040,600 +7.5 720,200 +39.4 763,800 16.0% 847,600 5.7% 2,331,600 17.9% 773,400 6.6% 740,100 5.7% 830,600 9.9% 2,343,700 7.4% 765,500 10.7% 824,300 22.6% 934,300 10.9% 9,239,500 11.8%

Summary

March

  • Volkswagen Group deliveries grew by 23.9% y/y in March 2023 to 812,100 vehicles (March 2022: -31.4%).
  • All the markets saw positive growth in deliveries during the month.
  • For Jan-March, deliveries grew 7.5% y/y to 2.04 million vehicles ( 2022 Jan-March: -21.9%).
  • In the quarter, all the markets saw higher sales except China where sales declined 14.5% y/y(Q1 2022: -23.9% y/y), and Central and Eastern Europe, where sales fell 5.8%(Q1 2022:-30.8%).
  • Traton deliveries saw the fastest growth with 25% rise in deliveries to 84,600 vehicles during the quarter.

April

See also: April Deliveries

  • Volkswagen Group deliveries grew 39.4% y/y in April 2023 to 720,200 vehicles(April 2022: -37.8% y/y)
  • All the markets saw positive growth in deliveries(except rest of Asia-pacific) and was led by China deliveries which grew 79% y/y to 255,700 vehicles (April 2022:-49.7% y/y)
  • For Jan-April, deliveries grew 14.3% y/y to 2,760,900 vehicles (2022 Jan-April: -26% y/y)

May

See also: May Deliveries

  • Volkswagen Group deliveries grew by 16.03% year over year in May 2023 to 763,800 vehicles(May 2022: -23.48% y/y).
  • All the markets saw positive growth in deliveries except South America which declined by -4.8% year over year to 40,400 vehicles.
  • Its most important markets Western Europe and China grew deliveries by 21.6% and 11.9% to 275,200 and 260,200, respectively. Last year May, the two markets saw deliveries grow by -22.9% and -23.8% to 226,300 and 232,600, respectively[19].
  • May deliveries were still below the pre-pandemic level of 919,000 (May, 2019).

June

See also: June Deliveries

  • Volkswagen Group deliveries rose by 5.7% year-over-year in June to 847,600 vehicles (June 2022: -6.3%).
  • All the markets saw positive growth in June except China whose deliveries declined by 14.5% year-over-year to 291,400 vehicles( June 2022: +27.2%).
  • Deliveries in June were still below the pre-pandemic level(June 2019: 974,400 vehicles).
  • For Q2, deliveries grew by 18% year-over-year to 2,331,600 vehicles(Q2 2022: -22.4%).
  • In Q2, all the markets saw positive growth, led by Central and Eastern Europe(+31.5%) and followed by Western Europe(+27%)
  • Premium group brand grew the fastest (+22.4%) during the quarter, followed by Traton(+20.3%).

July

See also: July Deliveries

  • Volkswagen deliveries grew by 6.6% y/y in July to 773,400 vehicles(July 2022: flat growth)[9].
  • China deliveries declined by 10.2% y/y to 260,400 vehicles(July 2022: +21.7%).
  • Western Europe saw the largest growth in deliveries(+21.4%).
  • Brand group progressive saw the largest growth y/y(+14.1%), followed by Brand Group Trucks(+10.8%).

August

  • Volkswagen Group deliveries grew by 5.7% year-over-year to 740,100 vehicles (August 2022: +12.7%).
  • Deliveries to China declined by 6.5% year-over-year to 278,000 vehicles (August 2022: +24.8%).
  • Deliveries to Western Europe rose by 21.1% year-over-year to 231,900 vehicles.
  • Volkswagen Passenger Cars deliveries declined by 1.7% y/y to 405,300 vehicles while Audi deliveries grew 13.6% y/y to 148,200 vehicles.
  • Deliveries from January to August now stands at 5.9 million vehicles, which means the company has to deliver an average of 775,000 vehicles in the remaining four months to hit the lower range target of 9 million to 9.5 million vehicles in 2023. The average monthly deliveries from August to December 2022 was 778,175 vehicles[20].

September

  • Volkswagen group deliveries grew by 9.9% year-over-year in September to 830,600 vehicles (September 2022: +21%).
  • Deliveries to China was down 1% year-over-year to 298,800 vehicles (September 2022: +34%).
  • Deliveries to Western Europe rose by 20% y/y to 293,100 vehicles in September.
  • In September, Volkswagen Passenger Cars deliveries rose 2.7% y/y to 442,100, Audi deliveries rose 24% y/y to 175,400 while Porsche deliveries rose 8% to 27,000.
  • In Q3, Volkswagen Group deliveries rose 7.4% y/y to 2.3 million vehicles (Q3 2022: +10.6%)
  • In Q3, China deliveries fell 6% y/y to 837,200 vehicles while Western Europe deliveries grew 21% y/y.
  • Deliveries for January to September stands at 6.7 million, around 2.3 million short of the lower-end target for the full year.

October

  • Volkswagen Group deliveries grew by 10.7% y/y to 765,500 vehicles in October ( October 2022: 691,800 or +15.1% y/y).
  • All regions saw growth in deliveries, with Western Europe deliveries growing by 11.3% y/y to 255,300- the lowest growth since August 2022 probably due to the impact of flooding in Slovenia, and China deliveries growing 5.1% y/y to 276,800 units.
  • Volkswagen Passenger car deliveries grew by 6.6% y/y to 414,100 units, one of the best growth rates in the year despite impact of Slovenia flood, while Audi deliveries grew by 15.6% y/y to 152,400 vehicles.
  • Deliveries from January to October stands at 7,481,300, around 1.5 million short of the lower-end target for the full year.

November

  • Volkswagen deliveries rose by 22.6% year-over-year to 824,300 vehicles in November[13], exceeding my forecast of 752,035 vehicles (+11.9% y/y)[21].
  • All the major markets saw positive growth with China deliveries growing by 32.4% year-over-year to 296,100 vehicles.
  • Deliveries from January to November now stands at 8,305,200 vehicles.

Assessment

Assuming the 12.83% y/y average growth rate in the first 11 months of 2023 will continue in December, Volkswagen will deliver[22] 950,367 and 9,255,5677 units (guidance 9-9.5million) in December and 2023, respectively. Assuming no growth in December, Volkswagen will deliver 9,147,500 units in 2023. It’s good that Volkswagen’s China deliveries grew more than the overall car sales (25%)[23] in China during the month.

December

  • Volkswagen Group deliveries rose by 12% to 9.24 million vehicles in 2023[14], slightly below my estimate of 9.25 million vehicles but exceeding management lower guidance (9 million) by 2.7%[24].
  • December deliveries were 934,300, below my estimate of 950,367.
  • China deliveries rose by 10.4% to 374,100 in December and by 1.6% to 3,236,100 in 2023 (2022: -3.6% or 3,184,500).
  • Audi deliveries rose by 17.4% to 1,895,200 in 2023 (2022: -3.9% or 1,614,200).

Assessment

I would say it’s still good that Volkswagen’s delivery numbers in December came close to my estimates despite supply chain bottlenecks[25] experienced by its EV brands during the month. It's also good to see Audi deliveries coming above the pre-pandemic level[26]. China deliveries also appear to be picking up though still underperfoming the overall car market in China (growth of 5.6% in 2023)[27].

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 https://www.volkswagenag.com/presence/investorrelation/publications/deliveries/2023/20230216_Deliveries_Tables.pdf
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 https://www.volkswagenag.com/presence/investorrelation/publications/deliveries/2023/20230316_Deliveries_Tables.pdf
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 https://www.volkswagenag.com/presence/investorrelation/publications/deliveries/2023/20230421_Deliveries_Tables.pdf
  4. ↑ https://www.volkswagenag.com/presence/investorrelation/publications/deliveries/2023/20230511_Deliveries_Tables.pdf
  5. ↑ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1N5-EbJE-JY6cILPETeU8LtbMcSBoPyBgk8Y_w21J1uw/edit#gid=1319566880
  6. ↑ https://uploads.vw-mms.de/system/production/files/cws/039/180/file/862873b923bea861c1a59ecf8060c3a708079e45/20230615_Deliveries_Tables.pdf?1686906089
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 https://uploads.vw-mms.de/system/production/files/cws/039/407/file/57c54130ed76dc7831f5b473a2497cf55cb38220/20230713_Deliveries_Tables_incl_BEV.pdf?1689325240
  8. ↑ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1N5-EbJE-JY6cILPETeU8LtbMcSBoPyBgk8Y_w21J1uw/edit#gid=1319566880
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 9.2 https://uploads.vw-mms.de/system/production/files/cws/039/456/file/0c8a7ef70567fb85cb1d9c03978334d1975c0037/20230817_Deliveries_Tables.pdf?1692349181
  10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 https://uploads.vw-mms.de/system/production/files/cws/039/607/file/5c0a94a2d6db95a44ea8f2caac67387cacb9562c/20230914_Deliveries_Tables.pdf?1694768430
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 https://uploads.vw-mms.de/system/production/files/cws/039/676/file/94e15a3dfd38da64df419d42a13a7c2d38163168/20231012_Deliveries_Tables.pdf?1697187402
  12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 https://uploads.vw-mms.de/system/production/files/cws/039/786/file/23d4ec9712059a4adfa8b1b4bd743d8716f4492a/20231116_Deliveries_Tables.pdf?1700211800
  13. ↑ 13.0 13.1 13.2 https://uploads.vw-mms.de/system/production/files/cws/039/867/file/fd950b2501f46e75aee2c6f107ce38a437d2944c/20231214_Deliveries_Tables.pdf?1702629528
  14. ↑ 14.0 14.1 14.2 https://uploads.vw-mms.de/system/production/files/cws/039/908/file/5295283008465dfc3a4f950412999d935db88e51/20240112_Deliveries_Tables_incl_BEV.pdf?1705049819
  15. ↑ https://discord.com/channels/978370501237932092/1012303584446136380/1087339599338143764
  16. ↑ https://www.volkswagenag.com/presence/investorrelation/publications/deliveries/2023/20230511_Deliveries_Tables.pdf
  17. ↑ https://uploads.vw-mms.de/system/production/files/cws/039/180/file/862873b923bea861c1a59ecf8060c3a708079e45/20230615_Deliveries_Tables.pdf?1686906089
  18. ↑ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1N5-EbJE-JY6cILPETeU8LtbMcSBoPyBgk8Y_w21J1uw/edit#gid=1319566880&range=A218:S236
  19. ↑ https://uploads.vw-mms.de/system/production/files/cws/035/745/file/62b31703a074141a2266763504a9a52d19b4ca28/20220616_Deliveries_Tables_Mai.pdf?1681808466
  20. ↑ https://www.investmentwiki.org/wiki/Volkswagen:Deliveries/FY2022
  21. ↑ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1N5-EbJE-JY6cILPETeU8LtbMcSBoPyBgk8Y_w21J1uw/edit#gid=1319566880&range=A294:K307
  22. ↑ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1N5-EbJE-JY6cILPETeU8LtbMcSBoPyBgk8Y_w21J1uw/edit#gid=1319566880&range=A309:J317
  23. ↑ https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/automotive-industry/98/16
  24. ↑ https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/volkswagen-deliveries/43/10
  25. ↑ https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/volkswagen-news/100/39
  26. ↑ https://www.investmentwiki.org/wiki/Volkswagen:Deliveries/FY2019
  27. ↑ https://forum.investmentwiki.org/t/volkswagen-deliveries/43/14
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