Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 November
Jump to navigation
Jump to search
Return to: Consumer Price Index | Historical Releases | Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 October
Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_12122023.htm
Publishing date: December 12, 2023
Summary
- Consumer price index(CPI) rose 0.1% in November versus estimate for a flat growth but rose 3.1% year-over-year, in-line with the estimate.
- Core CPI rose 0.3% in November, in-line with the estimate.
- Year-over-year, core CPI grew by 4.0%, also in-line with the forecast.
- Shelter rose 0.4% on the month (October: +0.3%) while energy prices fell 2.3% (October: -2.5%)
- Supercore inflation reaccelerated to 0.44% from 0.2% in October, driven by medical care and transportation services.
Contributors
The index for shelter continued to rise in November, offsetting a decline in the gasoline index.
- The shelter index was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy.
- The used cars and trucks index rose 1.6 percent in November, ending a string of five consecutive monthly decreases in that index.
- Among the other indexes that rose in November was the index for motor vehicle insurance, which increased 1.0 percent after rising 1.9 percent the preceding month. The medical care index rose 0.6 percent in November, after rising 0.3 percent in October. The index for physicians' services increased 0.6 percent over the month, and the index for prescription drugs rose 0.5 percent. The hospital services index rose 0.1 percent in November.
- The index for apparel fell 1.3 percent in November, after rising 0.1 percent the previous month. The index for household furnishings and operations declined 0.4 percent over the month, and the index for communication decreased 0.6 percent in November. Other indexes which declined in November include recreation, airline fares, and new vehicles.
Categories watched by the FED
| Index | M/M | Y/Y | Prev. M/M | Prev. Y/Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Goods | -0.3% | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| Core Services | 0.5% | 5.5% | 0.3% | 5.5% |
| Shelter | 0.4% | 6.5% | 0.3% | 6.7% |
| Services less shelter "super-core" | 0.44% | 3.87% | 0.215% | 3.7% |
CPI expectations
Forecasts expect the November CPI to show that the headline index remained inchanged from october, with the 12-month rate to 3.1% from 3.2% in October. They see core CPI up 0.3%, bringing the y/y to 4% same as the october rate.
Some developments during the month: (more details: Consumer Price Index)
- Wages saw an acceleration in its m/m increaed during november, remaining sticky
- Energy prices continued its move down during november, which will benefit headline inflation
- Food price remained unchanged during november, still -10% y/y.
- Supply chain index increased during november, however still close to the 0 level.
- Housing prices recorded a 8th consecutive month of price increases, increasing 0.3% month-over-month in september of 2023 (3.9% y/y). However, rents are down 0.9% month-over-month, down 1.1% year-over-year
- Used Car prices had again a sigificant decline of 2.1% m/m in november, they are down -5.8% over the year.
The markets are still pricing a pause in rates for the remaining of the year, and rate cuts starting on may 2024. [1]
Range:
- CPI: 2.9% - 3.3%
- Core CPI: 3.9% - 4.2%
| Escenario | Market reaction | Probability by Magaly |
| CPI below 3.0% | 2%+ rally | 5% |
| CPI at 3.0% | 1% Rally | 15% |
| CPI in line with expectations | Flat | 55% |
| CPI at 3.2% | 1-2% drop | 20% |
| CPI above 3.3% | 3% drop | 5% |
Consensus forecast
| Variable | Forecast | Previous | Actual | Market Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core CPI (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.2% | ||
| Core CPI (YoY) | 4% | 4.0% | ||
| CPI (MoM) | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||
| CPI (YoY) | 3.1% | 3.2% |
FED Cleveland Forecast
| [2] | YoY Change | MoM Change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | CPI | Core CPI | CPI | Core CPI |
| Nov 2023 | 3.04% | 4.06% | -0.01 | 0.33 |
| Dec 2023 | 3.34% | 3.98% | 0.41 | 0.33 |
