Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 October
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Return to: Consumer Price Index | Historical Releases | Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2023 September
Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_11142023.htm
Publishing date: November 14, 2023
Summary
- Consumer price index(CPI) was flat in October; hence below 0.1% estimate but rose 3.2% year-over-year, lower than 3.7% in September and 3.3% estimate.
- Core CPI rose 0.2% in October, below 0.3% estimate.
- Year-over-year, core CPI grew by 4.0%, below 4.1% estimate.
- Shelter contributed to most of the growth in CPI, having risen 0.3% on the month (September: +0.6%) while energy prices fell 2.5% (September: +1.5%)
- Supercore inflation eased to 3.7% (September: 3.87%) on a yearly basis and is up 0.2% on the month (September: +0.6%).
Contributors
- The shelter index was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy. The shelter index increased 0.3% in October, after rising 0.6% the previous month. The index for rent rose 0.5% in October, and the index for owners’ equivalent rent increased 0.4% over the month.
- Among the other indexes that rose in October was the index for motor vehicle insurance, which increased 1.9 percent after rising 1.3 percent the preceding month.
- Indexes which increased in October include rent, owners’ equivalent rent, motor vehicle insurance, medical care, recreation, and personal care.
- The indexes for lodging away from home (-2.5% m/m), used cars and trucks (-0.8% m/m), communication (-0.3% m/m), and airline fares (-0.9%m/m) were among those that decreased over the month.
Categories watched by the FED
| Index | M/M | Y/Y | Prev. M/M | Prev. Y/Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Goods | -0.1% | 0.1% | -0.4% | 0.0% |
| Core Services | 0.3% | 5.5% | 0.6% | 5.7% |
| Shelter | 0.3% | 6.7% | 0.6% | 7.2% |
| Services less shelter "super-core" | 0.215% | 3.7% | 0.61% | 3.86% |
CPI expectations
Forecasts expect the September CPI to show that the headline index rose 0.1% m/m, with the 12-month rate to 3.3% from 3.7% in September. They see core CPI up 0.3%, same as last month, bringing the y/y to 4.2% from 4.1 in September.
Some developments during the month: (more details: Consumer Price Index)
- Wages continue its slow decline in its rate of growth, however it remains still significant above historical averages
- Energy prices saw a significant decline in prices in October, headlines inflation will mostly be benefited due to this move.
- Food price index had a small decline of 0.7% in october, bringing the y/y rate to -15%.
- Supply chain issues had a significant ease during october, easing previous months increases.
- Housing prices recorded a 7th consecutive month of price increases, increasing 04% month-over-month in August of 2023 (2.6% y/y). However, Rents are down 0.7% month-over-month, down 1.2% year-over-year
- Used Car prices had a sigificant decline of 2.3% m/m in october, they are down -4% over the year.
The markets are still pricing a pause in rates for the remaining of the year. [1]
Range:
- CPI: 3.2% - 3.4%
- Core CPI: 4.0% - 4.3%
| Escenario | Market reaction | Probability by Magaly |
| CPI below 3.2% | 2%+ rally | 5% |
| CPI at 3.2% | 1% Rally | 15% |
| CPI in line with expectations | Flat | 45% |
| CPI at 3.4% | 1-2% drop | 30% |
| CPI above 3.4% | 3% drop | 5% |
Consensus forecast
| Variable | Forecast | Previous | Actual | Market Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core CPI (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | +2% |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | |
| CPI (MoM) | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.2% |
FED Cleveland Forecast
| [2] | YoY Change | MoM Change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | CPI | Core CPI | CPI | Core CPI |
| Oct 2023 | 3.28 | 4.16 | 0.07 | 0.34 |
| Nov 2023 | 3.16 | 4.20 | 0.08 | 0.34 |
Individual Institutions
