Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 April
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Return to: Consumer Price Index | Historical Releases | Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 March
Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_05152024.htm
Publishing date: May 15, 2024.
Actuals
| Variable | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Reaction SP500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core CPI (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.17% |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | |
| CPI (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% |
- CPI rose 0.3% in April, lower-than expectations for it to stay steady at 0.4%.
- On a yearly basis, CPI increased by 3.4%, in-line with the estimate but lower-than the 3.5% increase in March.
- Core CPI rose 0.3% in April, in-line with the estimate but lower-than the 0.4% increase in the previous month.
- On a yearly basis, core CPI rose 3.6% in-line with expectations and below the 3.8% increase in March.
- Supercore inflation was up 0.422% m/m (March: 0.65%) and 4.88% y/y (March:4.77%).
Contributions
About 70% of the monthly gain in the headline CPI came from shelter and gasoline prices which rose by 0.4% and 2.8%, respectively.
Services inflation continues to drive inflation, especially concentrated on shelter 0.4%m/m, transportation 0.85%m/m(vehicle insurance mostly), and medical services 0.45%m/m.
Core Services
Supercore Services
By Category
| Index | M/M | Y/Y | Prev. M/M | Prev. Y/Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Goods | -0.1% | -1.3% | -0.2% | -0.67% |
| Core Services | 0.4% | 5.3% | 0.5% | 5.39% |
| Shelter | 0.4% | 5.5% | 0.4% | 5.65% |
| Services less shelter "super-core" | 0.42% | 4.88% | 0.65% | 4.77% |
6M Annualized Trends
Y/Y Inflation Numbers by Categoty
CPI expectations
Some developments during the month: (more details: Consumer Price Index)
- Wages had been having more moderate increases in the last 3 months. The 6M annu rate is ruuning at 3.85% currently, still a bit higher than before covid.
- Oil and Gasoline continued to increase in april, both up over 5% m/m.
- Food Index had the second consecutive month of increases, but still down 7.5% Y/Y.
- Supply chain index decline during April, remains stable.
- Housing prices recorded an increase of 0.6% m/m during april, after a few months of declines. Rents also increased by 0.5% m/m.
- Used car prices continue to decline in april being -2.3% m/m, but new car prices recorded a 2.2% increased during april 2024.
- Import prices continued to increased being up 0.6% in april 2024, reverting the deflation experienced during 2023.
- Both ISM manufacturing and services prices paid index continued to acccelarate its rate of increase during April. Manufacturing increased 6.1 point to 60.9 (14.5%Y/Y) and services up 5.8 points to 59.2 (-0.6 Y/Y)
The markets is currently pricing 2 rate cuts in 2024, starting in september.
Range:
- CPI: 3.3% - 3.6%
- Core CPI: 3.5% - 3.8%
| Escenario | Market reaction | Probability by Magaly |
| CPI below 3.2% | 3%+ rally | 5% |
| CPI at 3.2-3.3% | 2% Rally | 10% |
| CPI in line with expectations | Flat | 50% |
| CPI 3.5%-3.6% | 1-2% drop | 30% |
| CPI above 3.6% | 3% drop | 5% |
Consensus forecast
| Variable | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Core CPI (MoM) | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 3.6% | 3.8% |
| CPI (MoM) | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.4% | 3.5% |
FED Cleveland Forecast
| [4] | YoY Change | MoM Change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | CPI | Core CPI | CPI | Core CPI |
| April 2024 | 3.50% | 3.65% | 0.41% | 0.31% |
| May 2024 | 3.54% | 3.59% | 0.12% | 0.30% |
References
- ↑ https://public.tableau.com/views/Inflation_17077682560160/Sheet2?:language=en-US&:sid=&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
- ↑ https://public.tableau.com/views/Inflation_17077682560160/Sheet2?:language=en-US&:sid=&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
- ↑ https://public.tableau.com/views/Inflation_17077682560160/Sheet2?:language=en-US&:sid=&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
- ↑ https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting