Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 March

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Return to: Consumer Price Index | Historical Releases | Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 February

Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04102024.htm

Publishing date: April 10, 2024.

Actuals

Variable Actual Forecast Previous Reaction SP500
Core CPI (MoM) 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% -1%
Core CPI (YoY) 3.8% 3.7% 3.8%
CPI (MoM) 0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
CPI (YoY) 3.5% 3.4% 3.2%
  • CPI rose 0.4% in March and 3.5% on a 12-month basis, above 0.3% and 3.4% estimates.
  • Core CPI was up 0.4% on a monthly basis and 3.8% from a year ago, exceeding 0.3% and 3.7% estimates.
  • Supercore inflation was up 4.77% y/y (11-month high) and 0.65% m/m.

Contributions

Shelter and energy costs, which rose 0.4% and 1.1%, respectively on the month were the main drivers of the headline CPI.

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1778040186376532466/photo/1
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1778040186376532466/photo/1

Super Core Contributions

Most of the supercore increase is due to transportation services again (1.5%M/M). More specifically vehicle insurance (2.6% M/M)

26ede0595832fed48112eaea76f2989f41ab40dfn.jpeg

By Category

Index M/M Y/Y Prev. M/M Prev. Y/Y
Core Goods -0.2% -0.67% 0.1% -0.3%
Core Services 0.5% 5.39% 0.5% 5.2%
Shelter 0.4% 5.65% 0.4% 5.7%
Services less shelter "super-core" 0.65% 4.77% 0.47% 4.28%

6M Annualized Trends

[1]

Y/Y Inflation Numbers by Categoty

[2]
89d2c38638805b7f0712bed91d4b0e9f7db3ef25 2 690x394.jpeg

CPI expectations

Some developments during the month: (more details: Consumer Price Index)

  • Wages remains sticky at ~4% y/y.
  • Oil and Gasoline continued to increase in March, with a an over 5% increase for both. Oil is currently 10% Y/Y.
  • Food Index had the first increase after 7 month is decline, is still negative 7% Y/Y.
  • Supply chain index decline a bit during March, but remains stable.
  • While hpusing prices declined 0.1% during January 2024. Rents recorded the second month of increases being up 0.6% m/m.
  • Used car prices continue to decline in March -0.4% m/m (-14.7 y/y), as well as new car prices -0.9% m/m (-2.6% y/y)

The markets is still pricing cuts starting in June, and 3 average cuts during 2024,

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

Range:

  • CPI: 3.2% - 3.5%
  • Core CPI: 3.6% - 3.9%
Escenario Market reaction Probability by Magaly
CPI below 3.2% 2%+ rally 5%
CPI at 3.2-3.3% 1% Rally 10%
CPI in line with expectations Flat 50%
CPI 3.5% 1-2% drop 30%
CPI above 3.5% 3% drop 5%

Consensus forecast

Variable Forecast Previous
Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.4%
Core CPI (YoY) 3.7% 3.8%
CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.4%
CPI (YoY) 3.4% 3.2%

FED Cleveland Forecast

[3] YoY Change MoM Change
Month CPI Core CPI CPI Core CPI
March 2024 3.41% 3.73% 0.34% 0.31%
April 2024 3.36% 3.58% 0.34% 0.31%

Individual Institutions

https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1777656452678832457/photo/1

References

  1. ↑ https://public.tableau.com/views/Inflation_17077682560160/Sheet2?:language=en-US&:sid=&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
  2. ↑ https://public.tableau.com/views/Inflation_17077682560160/Sheet2?:language=en-US&:sid=&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
  3. ↑ https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting
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