Return to: Consumer Price Index | Historical Releases | Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 June
Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_08142024.htm
Publishing date: August 14, 2024.
Results
| Variable
|
Actual
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
| Core CPI (MoM)
|
0.2%
|
0.2%
|
0.1%
|
| Core CPI (YoY)
|
3.2%
|
3.2%
|
3.3%
|
| CPI (MoM)
|
0.2%
|
0.2%
|
-0.1%
|
| CPI (YoY)
|
2.9%
|
2.9%
|
3.0%
|
CPI expectations
Some developments during the month: (more details: Consumer Price Index)
- Wage growth hasd a soft report on July reaching 3.6%, getting to the levels close to pre pandemic.
- Gasoline had another declined of -3.15% m/m, while oil had an increase of 7.5% m/m. Gasoline has a higher weight in CPI.
- Food index declined -0.2% m/m in July
- Supply chain index remains stable. However, shipping rates remain elevated due to middle east conflicts.
- Housing prices increased 0.9% m/m during July, remains ~6% Y/Y. Rents increased by 0.2% m/m, down 0.8% y/y.
- Used car prices increased 2.8% m/m on July (-4.8% Y/Y), while new car average transaction prices decline during the month (final numbers not available yet)/.
- Import prices remained unchanged duriung June, and 1.58% Y/Y.
The markets is currently pricing 100 bps of cuts in 2024.
Range:
- CPI: 2.8% - 3.1%
- Core CPI: 3.0% - 3.4%
| Escenario
|
Market reaction
|
Probability by Magaly
|
| CPI below 2.8%
|
2%+ rally
|
5%
|
| CPI at 2.8%
|
1.5% Rally
|
30%
|
| CPI in line with expectations
|
Flat
|
50%
|
| CPI at 3.0%
|
1% drop
|
10%
|
| CPI above 3.1%
|
2% drop
|
5%
|
Consensus forecast
| Variable
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
| Core CPI (MoM)
|
0.2%
|
0.1%
|
| Core CPI (YoY)
|
3.2%
|
3.3%
|
| CPI (MoM)
|
0.2%
|
-0.1%
|
| CPI (YoY)
|
2.9%
|
3.0%
|
FED Cleveland Forecast
| [1]
|
YoY Change
|
MoM Change
|
| Month
|
CPI
|
Core CPI
|
CPI
|
Core CPI
|
| July 2024
|
3.01%
|
3.33%
|
0.24
|
0.27
|
| August 2024
|
2.74%
|
3.38%
|
0.27
|
0.27
|
References
