Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 July
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Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_08142024.htm
Publishing date: August 14, 2024.
Results
| Variable | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core CPI (MoM) | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% |
| CPI (MoM) | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% |
CPI expectations
Some developments during the month: (more details: Consumer Price Index)
- Wage growth hasd a soft report on July reaching 3.6%, getting to the levels close to pre pandemic.
- Gasoline had another declined of -3.15% m/m, while oil had an increase of 7.5% m/m. Gasoline has a higher weight in CPI.
- Food index declined -0.2% m/m in July
- Supply chain index remains stable. However, shipping rates remain elevated due to middle east conflicts.
- Housing prices increased 0.9% m/m during July, remains ~6% Y/Y. Rents increased by 0.2% m/m, down 0.8% y/y.
- Used car prices increased 2.8% m/m on July (-4.8% Y/Y), while new car average transaction prices decline during the month (final numbers not available yet)/.
- Import prices remained unchanged duriung June, and 1.58% Y/Y.
The markets is currently pricing 100 bps of cuts in 2024.
Range:
- CPI: 2.8% - 3.1%
- Core CPI: 3.0% - 3.4%
| Escenario | Market reaction | Probability by Magaly |
| CPI below 2.8% | 2%+ rally | 5% |
| CPI at 2.8% | 1.5% Rally | 30% |
| CPI in line with expectations | Flat | 50% |
| CPI at 3.0% | 1% drop | 10% |
| CPI above 3.1% | 2% drop | 5% |
Consensus forecast
| Variable | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Core CPI (MoM) | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 3.2% | 3.3% |
| CPI (MoM) | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| CPI (YoY) | 2.9% | 3.0% |
FED Cleveland Forecast
| [1] | YoY Change | MoM Change | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | CPI | Core CPI | CPI | Core CPI |
| July 2024 | 3.01% | 3.33% | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| August 2024 | 2.74% | 3.38% | 0.27 | 0.27 |