Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 June

Return to: Consumer Price Index | Historical Releases | Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 May

Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_07102024.htm

Publishing date: July 10, 2024.

Results

Variable	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Core CPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%
Core CPI (YoY)	3.3%	3.4%	3.4%
CPI (MoM)	-0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
CPI (YoY)	3.0%	3.1%	3.3%

• CPI fell 0.1% in June against expectations for a 0.1% increase.
• On a yearly basis, headline CPI increased by 3.0%, lower-than 3.1% estimate and 3.3% in the previous month.
• Core CPI was up 0.1%, against expectations for it to stay steady at 0.2%.
• Year-over-year, core CPI increased by 3.3%, against expectations for it to stay steady at 3.4%.
• Supercore inflation fell -0.05% in June after a -0.04% reading in May.
• S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones futures gained 1% after the reading.

Contributions

https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1811379850411692131/photo/1

https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1811380422145618351/photo/1

https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1811382006015561908/photo/1

By Category

Index	M/M	Y/Y	Prev. M/M	Prev. Y/Y
Core Goods	-0.1%	1.8%	0.0%	-1.7%
Core Services	0.1%	5.1%	0.2%	5.3%
Shelter	0.2%	5.2%	0.4%	5.4%
Services less shelter "super-core"	-0.054	4.65%	-0.045%	4.80%

https://public.tableau.com/views/USInflation_17171686419090/CPIGrowthTrends?:language=en-US&:sid=&:redirect=auth&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link

CPI expectations

Some developments during the month: (more details: Consumer Price Index)

• Wages on line with estimates on June, with a 0.3 m/m increase, in line with the average increase of the past few quarters.
• Gasoline had a declined of -4.12% m/m, while oil had an increase of 3.2% m/m. However, gasoline has a higher weight in CPI.
• Food index was unchaged during the month.
• Supply chain index remains stable.
• Housing prices increased 1.17% m/m during June, reaching 6.29% Y/Y. Rents also increased by 0.4% m/m, down 0.7% y/y.
• Used car prices continue to decline in June being -0.6% m/m, while new car average transaction prices increased 0.5% m/m.
• Import prices had a decline of 0.6% m/m in June 2024, and is still up now 1% y/y

The markets is currently pricing 2 rate cuts in 2024, starting on september.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

Range:

• CPI: 3.0% - 3.2%
• Core CPI: 3.3% - 3.5%

Escenario	Market reaction	Probability by Magaly
CPI below 3.0%	3%+ rally	5%
CPI at 3.0%	2% Rally	30%
CPI in line with expectations	Flat	50%
CPI at 3.2%	1-2% drop	10%
CPI above 3.2%	3% drop	5%

Consensus forecast

Variable	Forecast	Previous
Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.2%
Core CPI (YoY)	3.4%	3.4%
CPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.0%
CPI (YoY)	3.1%	3.3%

FED Cleveland Forecast

	YoY Change		MoM Change
Month	CPI	Core CPI	CPI	Core CPI
June 2024	3.12	3.52	0.07	0.28
July 2024	3.17	3.6	0.25	0.29

Particular Institutions Forecasts

https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/1810418585124176273/photo/1