Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 May

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Return to: Consumer Price Index | Historical Releases | Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 March

Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_06122024.htm

Publishing date: June 12, 2024.

Actuals

Variable Actual Forecast Previous Reaction SP500
Core CPI (MoM) 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 1%
Core CPI (YoY) 3.4% 3.5% 3.6%
CPI (MoM) 0.0% 0.1% 0.3%
CPI (YoY) 3.3% 3.4% 3.4%
  • Headline CPI was unchanged in May versus expectations for a 0.1% increase.
  • On a yearly basis, headline CPI was up 3.3%, lower-than 3.4% estimate.
  • Core CPI rose 0.2% in May and 3.4% from a year ago, below estimates for a 0.3% and 3.5% increase.
  • Stock futures were up following the report, Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.8% and 1.1%, respectively.

Contributions

https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1800871269577199884/photo/1
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1800871269577199884/photo/2

Supercore Services

Drop in super core services was due in the most part for a decline in the vehicle insurance category going from 1.8% m/m in April to -0.1% in May.

https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1800871269577199884/photo/3

By Category

Index M/M Y/Y Prev. M/M Prev. Y/Y
Core Goods 0.0% -1.7% -0.1% -1.3%
Core Services 0.2% 5.3% 0.4% 5.3%
Shelter 0.4% 5.4% 0.4% 5.5%
Services less shelter "super-core" -0.045% 4.80% 0.42% 4.88%

6M Annualized Trends

[1]
[2]

Y/Y Inflation Numbers by Categoty

[3]

CPI expectations

Some developments during the month: (more details: Consumer Price Index)

  • Lack of progress with wages, which surprised to the upside again in May 2024.
  • Oil and Gasoline declined during May 2024 after a few month of increases, being down 6.1% m/m and -0.23% m/m, respectively.
  • Food Index had the third consecutive month of increases with a 0.9% m/m increase, but still down 3.4% Y/Y.
  • Supply chain index remains stable
  • Housing prices increased 1.2% m/m during May, reaching 6.5% Y/Y. Rents also increased by 0.5% m/m, down 0.8% y/y.
  • Used car prices continue to decline in May being -0.6% m/m, while new car average transaction prices remain unchanged.
  • Import prices continued to increase being up 1.3% in May 2024, and up now 1% y/y, after being negative for months.

The markets is currently pricing 2 rate cuts in 2024, starting in september.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html

Range:

  • CPI: 3.2% - 3.6%
  • Core CPI: 3.3% - 3.7%
Escenario Market reaction Probability by Magaly
CPI below 3.2% 3%+ rally 5%
CPI at 3.2-3.3% 2% Rally 30%
CPI in line with expectations Flat 50%
CPI 3.5%-3.6% 1-2% drop 10%
CPI above 3.6% 3% drop 5%

Consensus forecast

Variable Forecast Previous
Core CPI (MoM) 0.3% 0.3%
Core CPI (YoY) 3.5% 3.6%
CPI (MoM) 0.1% 0.3%
CPI (YoY) 3.4% 3.4%

FED Cleveland Forecast

[4] YoY Change MoM Change
Month CPI Core CPI CPI Core CPI
May 2024 3.36% 3.55% 0.08% 0.30%
June 2024 3.24% 3.66% 0.12% 0.30%

References

  1. ↑ https://public.tableau.com/views/USInflation_17171686419090/CPI6MAnn?:language=en-US&:sid=&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
  2. ↑ https://public.tableau.com/views/USInflation_17171686419090/CPI6MAnn?:language=en-US&:sid=&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
  3. ↑ https://public.tableau.com/views/USInflation_17171686419090/CPI6MAnn?:language=en-US&:sid=&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link
  4. ↑ https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting
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