3,882
edits
Advertising Industry: Difference between revisions
no edit summary
No edit summary |
|||
| Line 177: | Line 177: | ||
Do advertising agencies like Magna and Zenith have a positive bias? | Do advertising agencies like Magna and Zenith have a positive bias? | ||
=== Magna Forecast === | === Magna Forecast === | ||
==== March 2024 ==== | |||
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 101337.png|center|thumb|738x738px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]] | |||
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 101001.png|center|thumb|734x734px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]] | |||
Based on MAGNA’s analysis of media companies’ financials''',''' '''non-cyclical advertising revenues grew by +9.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023''' e., the strongest quarterly growth in almost two years, bringing full-year 2023 ad market growth to +5.7%.<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/digital-momentum-leads-ad-market-forecast-to-9/</ref> | |||
Because of an improving macro-economic outlook, the momentum of digital media and streaming, and the impact of cyclical events, '''MAGNA anticipates more growth in 2024''': '''total media owners ad revenues will increase by +9.2% to reach $369 billion'''. That’s nearly one percentage point above the previous forecast (+8.4% in Dec. 2023). | |||
'''Advertising spend around major cyclical events will drive approx. $10 billion of incremental ad sales as the 2024 election cycle will generate $9 billion''' of additional ad revenue for media owners (+13% vs the 2020 cycle). '''This will add 2.5 percentage points to the non-cyclical growth rate''', bringing total revenue growth from +6.7% (non-cyclical ad sales) to +9.2% (total ad sales). The impact will be even greater for some media categories like Local TV (excluding political -4%, including political +26%). | |||
* Digital pure players (DPP) dominating Search, Retail, Social and Short-Form Video formats will once again capture most of the growth, with '''DPP ad sales growing by +11.7% to $260 billion''' (previous forecast +10.5%). | |||
* '''Short form, pure player digital video''' ad sales (primarily YouTube and Twitch), will grow by +12% this year to reach $22 billion. | |||
* '''Social media sales will feel the wind at their back and will rise +14% to $81 billion.''' Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming an increasingly important tool used by advertisers to set up, run, and optimize their social media campaigns. MAGNA looks for this to drive additional sales in 2024, especially for small businesses setting up their first campaigns. | |||
* '''Search/Retail ad sales will increase by nearly +12% to $146 billion in 2024''' and will also benefit from increasing AI functionality in helping brands set up and run new advertising campaigns. | |||
* '''Audio ad sales''' (terrestrial and satellite radio, audio streaming, and podcasting) will be stable at around $16 billion in 2024. Digital audio usage and ad sales continue to develop but growth rates are maturing (+6%), which means it barely offsets the erosion of linear radio (-3%) | |||
* '''Long-Form Streaming advertising will expand by +13% to reach $10 billion milestone.''' | |||
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 101835.png|center|thumb|745x745px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]] | |||
[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-17 102009.png|center|thumb|750x750px|https://vimeo.com/926389177/7fadab9dcb?share=copy]] | |||
==== December 2023 ==== | ==== December 2023 ==== | ||
| Line 229: | Line 250: | ||
===== Demcember 2023 ===== | ===== Demcember 2023 ===== | ||
[[File:Share of global spend by channel.jpg|center|thumb|522x522px|https://info.dentsu.com/dentsuGlobalAdSpendForecasts_December2023]] | [[File:Share of global spend by channel.jpg|center|thumb|522x522px|https://info.dentsu.com/dentsuGlobalAdSpendForecasts_December2023]] | ||
Latest forecast, covering 58 markets across the globe, is that '''advertising spend will expand by $33.0 billion in 2024 to reach $752.8 billion. This represents a 4.6% growth year-over-year for the ad industry – much faster than the pace seen in 2023 (+2.7% vs. 2022).'''<ref>https://info.dentsu.com/dentsuGlobalAdSpendForecasts_December2023</ref> | Latest forecast, covering 58 markets across the globe, is that '''advertising spend will expand by $33.0 billion in 2024 to reach $752.8 billion. This represents a 4.6% growth year-over-year for the ad industry – much faster than the pace seen in 2023 (+2.7% vs. 2022).'''<ref>https://info.dentsu.com/dentsuGlobalAdSpendForecasts_December2023</ref> | ||
| Line 255: | Line 275: | ||
Zenith’s latest ''Advertising Expenditure Forecasts'' reports continued resilience and forecasts 5.3% global advertising growth for 2023, which is above initial expectations given a healthier than expected Q3 for major digital advertisers.<ref>https://www.zenithmedia.com/zenith-forecasts-4-8-growth-for-2024-marking-continued-adspend-acceleration-into-2025-and-beyond/</ref> | Zenith’s latest ''Advertising Expenditure Forecasts'' reports continued resilience and forecasts 5.3% global advertising growth for 2023, which is above initial expectations given a healthier than expected Q3 for major digital advertisers.<ref>https://www.zenithmedia.com/zenith-forecasts-4-8-growth-for-2024-marking-continued-adspend-acceleration-into-2025-and-beyond/</ref> | ||
* Global adspend growth is expected at 4.8% in 2024, excluding U.S. political spending*, aided by events such as the Olympics as well as a combination of continued advertiser spending in support of their brands and the positive impact of Chinese brands fueling growth. | * '''Global adspend growth is expected at 4.8% in 2024,''' excluding U.S. political spending*, aided by events such as the Olympics as well as a combination of continued advertiser spending in support of their brands and the positive impact of Chinese brands fueling growth. | ||
* The Americas are expected to continue as the fastest-growing region with 5.7% advertising growth in 2024. Europe continues to contribute meaningful growth (4.5%) due in part to online spending, while Asia-Pac (3.8%) remains impacted by China’s slower-than-expected recovery. | * The Americas are expected to continue as the fastest-growing region with 5.7% advertising growth in 2024. Europe continues to contribute meaningful growth (4.5%) due in part to online spending, while Asia-Pac (3.8%) remains impacted by China’s slower-than-expected recovery. | ||
* Adspend momentum remains steadily on an upward trajectory in large part due to the strong adoption of online propositions such as retail media and social media. Online continues to lead as the fastest-growing category, accounting for 59% of overall spending in 2024 and expected to increase to 61% in 2026, with a CAGR of 4.6%. | * Adspend momentum remains steadily on an upward trajectory in large part due to the strong adoption of online propositions such as retail media and social media. Online continues to lead as the fastest-growing category, accounting for 59% of overall spending in 2024 and expected to increase to 61% in 2026, with a CAGR of 4.6%. | ||