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Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 April: Difference between revisions
Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 April (view source)
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m | ''Return to: [[Consumer Price Index]] | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases|Historical Releases]]'' | [[Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 March]] | ||
Full Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_05152024.htm | |||
Publishing date: May 15, 2024. | |||
==CPI expectations== | |||
Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]]) | |||
*Wages remains sticky at ~4% y/y. | |||
*Oil and Gasoline continued to increase in March, with a an over 5% increase for both. Oil is currently 10% Y/Y. | |||
*Food Index had the first increase after 7 month is decline, is still negative 7% Y/Y. | |||
*Supply chain index decline a bit during March, but remains stable. | |||
*While hpusing prices declined 0.1% during January 2024. Rents recorded the second month of increases being up 0.6% m/m. | |||
*Used car prices continue to decline in March -0.4% m/m (-14.7 y/y), as well as new car prices -0.9% m/m (-2.6% y/y) | |||
The markets is still pricing cuts starting in June, and 3 average cuts during 2024,[[File:Screenshot 2024-04-09 105624.png|alt=|center|thumb|481x481px|https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html|link=https://investmentwiki.mywikis.eu/wiki/File:Screenshot_2024-04-09_105624.png]]''Range:'' | |||
*CPI: 3.2% - 3.5% | |||
*Core CPI: 3.6% - 3.9% | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
|'''Escenario''' | |||
|'''Market reaction''' | |||
|'''Probability by Magaly''' | |||
|- | |||
|CPI below 3.2% | |||
|2%+ rally | |||
|5% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI at 3.2-3.3% | |||
|1% Rally | |||
|10% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI in line with expectations | |||
|Flat | |||
|50% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI 3.5% | |||
|1-2% drop | |||
|30% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI above 3.5% | |||
|3% drop | |||
|5% | |||
|} | |||
===Consensus forecast=== | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!Variable | |||
!Forecast | |||
!Previous | |||
|- | |||
|Core CPI (MoM) | |||
|0.3% | |||
|0.4% | |||
|- | |||
|Core CPI (YoY) | |||
|3.7% | |||
|3.8% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI (MoM) | |||
|0.3% | |||
|0.4% | |||
|- | |||
|CPI (YoY) | |||
|3.4% | |||
|3.2% | |||
|} | |||
===FED Cleveland Forecast=== | |||
{| class="wikitable" | |||
!<ref>https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting</ref> | |||
! colspan="2" |YoY Change | |||
! colspan="2" |MoM Change | |||
|- | |||
!Month | |||
!CPI | |||
!Core CPI | |||
!CPI | |||
!Core CPI | |||
|- | |||
|March 2024 | |||
|3.41% | |||
|3.73% | |||
|0.34% | |||
|0.31% | |||
|- | |||
|April 2024 | |||
|3.36% | |||
|3.58% | |||
|0.34% | |||
|0.31% | |||
|} | |||
===Individual Institutions=== | |||