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*While hpusing prices declined 0.1% during January 2024. Rents recorded the second month of increases being up 0.6% m/m. | *While hpusing prices declined 0.1% during January 2024. Rents recorded the second month of increases being up 0.6% m/m. | ||
*Used car prices continue to decline in March -0.4% m/m (-14.7 y/y), as well as new car prices -0.9% m/m (-2.6% y/y) | *Used car prices continue to decline in March -0.4% m/m (-14.7 y/y), as well as new car prices -0.9% m/m (-2.6% y/y) | ||
The markets is | The markets is currently pricing 2 rate cuts in 2024, starting in september. | ||
*CPI: 3. | [[File:Screenshot 2024-05-14 131501.png|alt=|center|thumb|420x420px|https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html]] | ||
*Core CPI: 3. | ''Range:'' | ||
*CPI: 3.3% - 3.6% | |||
*Core CPI: 3.5% - 3.8% | |||
{| class="wikitable" | {| class="wikitable" | ||
|'''Escenario''' | |'''Escenario''' | ||
Line 21: | Line 23: | ||
|- | |- | ||
|CPI below 3.2% | |CPI below 3.2% | ||
| | |3%+ rally | ||
|5% | |5% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|CPI at 3.2-3.3% | |CPI at 3.2-3.3% | ||
| | |2% Rally | ||
|10% | |10% | ||
|- | |- | ||
Line 32: | Line 34: | ||
|50% | |50% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|CPI 3.5% | |CPI 3.5%-3.6% | ||
|1-2% drop | |1-2% drop | ||
|30% | |30% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|CPI above 3. | |CPI above 3.6% | ||
|3% drop | |3% drop | ||
|5% | |5% | ||
Line 51: | Line 53: | ||
|- | |- | ||
|Core CPI (YoY) | |Core CPI (YoY) | ||
|3. | |3.6% | ||
|3.8% | |3.8% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|CPI (MoM) | |CPI (MoM) | ||
|0. | |0.4% | ||
|0.4% | |0.4% | ||
|- | |- | ||
|CPI (YoY) | |CPI (YoY) | ||
|3.4% | |3.4% | ||
|3. | |3.5% | ||
|} | |} | ||
===FED Cleveland Forecast=== | ===FED Cleveland Forecast=== | ||
Line 74: | Line 76: | ||
!Core CPI | !Core CPI | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |April 2024 | ||
|3. | |3.50% | ||
|3. | |3.65% | ||
|0. | |0.41% | ||
|0.31% | |0.31% | ||
|- | |- | ||
| | |May 2024 | ||
|3. | |3.54% | ||
|3. | |3.59% | ||
|0. | |0.12% | ||
|0. | |0.30% | ||
|} | |} | ||
== | |||
== References == |