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Advertising Industry: Difference between revisions
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==== June 2024 ==== | ==== June 2024 ==== | ||
MAGNA is raising its 2024 growth forecast following a '''stronger-than-expected ad market in the first quarter (+12%)''' and an improvement in the economic outlook (real GDP growth +3.2%, US +2.5%).<ref>https://magnaglobal.com/global-ad-forecast-june-2024-update/</ref> | |||
* MAGNA’s “Global Ad Forecast” predicts media owners net advertising revenues (NAR) will reach $927 billion this year, growing +10.0% over 2023. This is a significant acceleration on the global growth recorded in 2023 (+6.4%). Neutralizing the impact of cyclical events in 2023 and 2024, the normalized acceleration is still real but more modest: non-cyclical ad revenues grew by +7.5% in 2023 and will grow by +8.7% in 2024. | |||
* 1Q24 was an even stronger than expected. Year-over-Year growth average +12% in key markets, +17% in Spain, +15% in France, and Germany. Quarterly growth rates will gradually slow as comps become tougher in the second half, but this strong start of the year, coupled with a stronger economic outlook led us to raise the full year 2024 forecast for almost every individual market monitor, bringing the expected global growth from +6.4% in December, to +10% now. The full-year ad revenues of traditional media owners are now forecast to grow by +3% instead of +2%, and the ad sales of digital pure players are now expected to grow by +13% (previously +9.4%). | |||
* '''In the first quarter of 2024, the leading global digital vendors reported the strongest growth rates in more than two years.''' Based on MAGNA’s analysis of financial report, global Search ad sales grew by +16% year-over-year, pure-play video by +21% and Social Media by +28% year-over-year. Quarterly growth rates are bound to slow down as comps will gradually get tougher, but MAGNA anticipates double-digit growth for all key digital formats and vendors this year. | |||
* Full-year 2023, Google, Meta, and Amazon organic ad revenues increased by +6%, +16% and +24% respectively. '''The big three now attract a combined 60% of total advertising revenues outside China''' ($417 billion out of $698 billion), up from 57% in 2021-2022. Including China – where they don’t operate – they control 49% of global ad sales. | |||
* Media owners advertising revenues are forecast to reach an all-time high of $374 billion this year, growing +10.7% over 2023. This is 1.5 percentage points above our previous full-year forecast (+9.2% in our March 2024 update), following a stronger-than-expected start of the year (+12% in the first quarter) and an improvement in the macro-economic outlook – with the latest GDP growth forecasts raised to a robust +2.5%. The macro-economic factor offsets slightly lower cyclical expectations, as our political advertising forecast is reduced following by weaker-than-expected fundraising in the first few months of the year. We still expect the 2024 election campaigns to generate $9 billion dollars of incremental advertising revenues for US media owners this year, an increase of +10% vs 2020. | |||
* The US remains the largest and most intense ad market in the world with advertisers spending $1,100 per consumer in 2024; it’s 8 times more than the global average ($160), ten times more than China ($110) and a hundred times more than India ($10).<br /> | |||
'''Global Forecasts''' | '''Global Forecasts''' | ||