Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 July: Difference between revisions

Consumer Price Index:Historical Releases/2024 July (view source)

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 == CPI expectations ==
+Some developments during the month: (more details: [[Consumer Price Index]])
+* Wages on line with estimates on June, with a 0.3 m/m increase, in line with the average increase of the past few quarters.
+* Gasoline had a declined of -4.12% m/m, while oil had an increase of 3.2% m/m. However, gasoline has a higher weight in CPI.
+* Food index was unchaged during the month.
+* Supply chain index remains stable.
+* Housing prices increased 1.17% m/m during June, reaching 6.29% Y/Y. Rents also increased by 0.4% m/m, down 0.7% y/y.
+* Used car prices continue to decline in June being -0.6% m/m, while new car average transaction prices increased 0.5% m/m.
+* Import prices had a decline of 0.6% m/m in June 2024, and is still up now 1% y/y
+The markets is currently pricing 2 rate cuts in 2024, starting on september.
+''Range:''
+* CPI: 3.0% - 3.2%
+* Core CPI: 3.3% - 3.5%
+{| class="wikitable"
+|'''Escenario'''
+|'''Market reaction'''
+|'''Probability by Magaly'''
+|-
+|CPI below 3.0%
+|3%+ rally
+|5%
+|-
+|CPI at 3.0%
+|2% Rally
+|30%
+|-
+|CPI in line with expectations
+|Flat
+|50%
+|-
+|CPI at 3.2%
+|1-2% drop
+|10%
+|-
+|CPI above 3.2%
+|3% drop
+|5%
+|}
 === Consensus forecast ===
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 |0.27
 |}
-=== Particular Institutions Forecasts ===
 == References ==